6533b821fe1ef96bd127bfd7

RESEARCH PRODUCT

Spatial risks and complex systems :methodological perspectives

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Cette publication est en ligne à l'adresse suivante : http://www-lih.univ-lehavre.fr/~bertelle/epnacs2007-proceedings/daude4epnacs07.pdf; International audience; The reflections regarding risk and industrial catastrophes questionthe complexity theories. Besides the new concepts which lead us to questionolder concepts (risk, hazard and vulnerability), we propose to think aboutmore practical aspects, for example the modelling of human behaviour andthe confrontation in crisis situations. The link between concepts as: criticalself-organization, emergence, bifurcation, and the methods in the DistributedArtificial Intelligence used to model them is however difficult. In this paper,we present ongoing analysis on the key concepts of risk science, such as thehazards and the catastrophes. We propose to enrich them with complex systemstheories. First, we present methodological perspectives of the DAI, forexample multi-agent systems, and compare them with other simulation methodsused in the context of the risks. Secondly, we present the MOSAIIC model(Modelling and Simulation of Industrial Accidents by Individual-Based methods)which gives possibilities to simulate the behaviour of individuals duringan industrial accident. The project and the MOSAIIC model aim to explorethe effects of a major industrial accident on public health. For instance, theemission and the spread of a toxic gas in an urban environment may be a seriousdanger for the human health. Thus we propose to study the consequencesof this type of event in order to reduce the vulnerability of the populations.In the model, we emphasize both on spatial and behavioral dimensions (ie.mobility and perception of risk) All these questions lead us to use differentmethodologies of analysis. For example, concerning mobility, the daily trafficcan be simulated at a meso scale: a road axis for example. In that way, we aimto simulate the global dynamics of the network from the modelling of flows onarcs of the network (modulated according to the time of day and the day ofweek). Yet, we use classical models (for instance equilibrium models) becausethey give an ”average image” of the flows of vehicles on the arcs. Based onthis first structural mobility, it is then possible to consider ”a change of level”regarding both the representation and the analysis: if a risk occurs or if aspecific context disrupts the structure. As a consequence, from a managementof flows on the arc, we turn to an analysis of the individual behaviours in amulti-agent system