Premature ovarian senescence and a high miscarriage rate impair fertility in women with HCV

Background & Aims Premenopausal women who are HCV positive (HCV+) have failing ovarian function, which is likely to impact their fertility. Thus, we investigated the reproductive history, risk of infertility, and pregnancy outcomes in women of childbearing age who were HCV+. Methods Three different groups were studied: (1) Clinical cohort: 100 women who were HCV+ and also had chronic liver disease (CLD), age matched with 50 women who were HBV+ with CLD and with 100 healthy women; all women were consecutively observed in three gastroenterology units in hospitals in Italy; (2) 1,998 women who were HCV+ and enrolled in the Italian Platform for the Study of Viral Hepatitis Therapies (PITER)…

Forecasting liver disease burden

Will the COVID-19 pandemic affect HCV disease burden?

Profiling the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma after long-term HCV eradication in patients with liver cirrhosis in the PITER cohort

Background and aims: Severe liver disease markers assessed before HCV eradication are acknowledged to usually improve after the SVR. We prospectively evaluated, in the PITER cohort, the long-term HCC risk profile based on predictors monitored after HCV eradication by direct-acting antivirals in patients with cirrhosis. Methods: HCC occurrence was evaluated by Kaplan-Meier analysis. Cox regression analysis identified the post-treatment variables associated with de-novo HCC; their predictive power was presented in a nomogram. Results: After the end of therapy (median follow-up:28.47 months), among 2064 SVR patients, 119 (5.8%) developed de-novo HCC. The HCC incidence was 1.90%, 4.21%, 6.47% a…

Global prevalence, treatment, and prevention of hepatitis B virus infection in 2016: a modelling study

PubMed: 29599078

A mathematical model by route of transmission and fibrosis progression to estimate undiagnosed individuals with HCV in different Italian regions.

Abstract Background Although an increase in hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence from Northern to Southern Italy has been reported, the burden of asymptomatic individuals in different Italian regions is currently unknown. Methods A probabilistic approach, including a Markov chain for liver disease progression, was applied to estimate current HCV viraemic burden. The model defined prevalence by geographic area using an estimated annual historical HCV incidence by age, treatment rate, and migration rate from the Italian National database. Viraemic infection by age group was estimated for each region by main HCV transmission routes of individuals for stage F0–F3 (i.e. patients without liver cirr…

Absolute targets for HCV elimination and national health policy paradigms: Foreseeing future requirements

The World Health Organization (WHO) targets for eliminating HCV by 2030 may be overambitious for many high-income countries. Recent analyses (ie, data from 2017 to 2019) show that only 11 countries are on track for meeting WHO’s elimination targets. For a country to be truly on track, it is important that the majority of infected individuals be identified and treated. There is still a need for country and population-specific evaluations within the different HCV screening and treatment strategies available, in order to assess their cost-effectiveness and sustainability and support an evidence-based policy for HCV elimination. Any health policy model is affected by the diversity and quality o…

Global prevalence and genotype distribution of hepatitis C virus infection in 2015:a modelling study

WOS: 000426979400014

The impact of direct acting antivirals on hepatitis C virus disease burden and associated costs in four European countries

Eliminació del VHC; Punt d'equilibri; Infecció d'hepatitis C Eliminación del VHC; Punto de equilibrio; Infección de hepatitis C HCV elimination; Break-even; Hepatitis C infection Background and Aims We assessed the clinical and economic impact of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy for hepatitis C virus (HCV) in England, Italy, Romania and Spain. Methods An HCV progression Markov model was developed considering DAA eligibility and population data during the years 2015-2019. The period of time to recover the investment in DAAs was calculated as the cost saved by avoiding estimated clinical events for 1000 standardized treated patients. A delayed treatment scenario because of coronavirus di…

Optimizing diagnostic algorithms to advance Hepatitis C elimination in Italy: A cost effectiveness evaluation

Objectives: Optimized diagnostic algorithms to detect active infections are crucial to achieving HCV elimination. We evaluated the cost effectiveness and sustainability of different algorithms for HCV active infection diagnosis, in a context of a high endemic country for HCV infection. Methods: A Markov disease progression model, simulating six diagnostic algorithms in the birth cohort 1969‐1989 over a 10‐year horizon from a healthcare perspective was used. Conventionally diagnosis of active HCV infection is through detection of antibodies (HCV‐Ab) detection followed by HCV‐RNA or HCV core antigen (HCV‐Ag) confirmatory testing either on a second sample or by same sample reflex testing. The …

Incidence of DAA failure and the clinical impact of retreatment in real-life patients treated in the advanced stage of liver disease: Interim evaluations from the PITER network

Background: Few data are available on the virological and clinical outcomes of advanced liver disease patients retreated after first-line DAA failure. Aim: To evaluate DAA failure incidence and the retreatment clinical impact in patients treated in the advanced liver disease stage. Methods: Data on HCV genotype, liver disease severity, and first and second line DAA regimens were prospectively collected in consecutive patients who reached the 12-week post-treatment and retreatment evaluations from January 2015 to December 2016 in 23 of the PITER network centers. Results: Among 3,830 patients with advanced fibrosis (F3) or cirrhosis, 139 (3.6%) failed to achieve SVR. Genotype 3, bilirubin lev…

Impact of COVID-19 on global HCV elimination efforts.

Background & Aims COVID-19 has placed significant strain on national healthcare systems at a critical moment in the context of hepatitis elimination. Mathematical models can be used to evaluate the possible impact of programmatic delays on hepatitis disease burden. The objective of this analysis was to evaluate the incremental change in hepatitis C liver-related deaths and liver cancer, following a 3-month, 6-month, or 1-year hiatus in hepatitis elimination program progress. Methods Previously developed models were adapted for 110 countries to include a status quo or “no delay” scenario and a “1-year delay” scenario assuming significant disruption in interventions (screening, diagnosis and …

Additional file 1 of A mathematical model by route of transmission and fibrosis progression to estimate undiagnosed individuals with HCV in different Italian regions

Additional file 1: Table S1. Estimates of % of viraemic HCV individuals in different Italian regions according to fibrosis stage and high-risk groups.

Hepatitis C virus prevalence and level of intervention required to achieve the WHO targets for elimination in the European Union by 2030: a modelling study

Background Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading cause of liver-related morbidity and mortality worldwide. In the European Union (EU), treatment and cure of HCV with direct-acting antiviral therapies began in 2014. WHO targets are to achieve a 65% reduction in liver-related deaths, a 90% reduction of new viral hepatitis infections, and 90% of patients with viral hepatitis infections being diagnosed by 2030. This study assessed the prevalence of HCV in the EU and the level of intervention required to achieve WHO targets for HCV elimination. Methods We populated country Markov models for the 28 EU countries through a literature search of PubMed and Embase between Jan 1, 2000, and March 31, 201…

Opportunistic co-screening for HCV and COVID-19-related services: A creative response with a need for thoughtful reflection.

At a time when hepatitis C virus clearance can be obtained by DAAs in almost all infected patients, global infection burden control is an objective within reach, even if achieving the WHO HCV elimination targets by 2030 may not be attainable. 1 The lowest cost intervention is an awareness campaign to bring in those who are recently diagnosed and those who were previously diagnosed but not treated. Only 30% of all HCV‐diagnosed patients are linked‐to‐care. 2 The next level of intervention is case‐finding for disease control and screening. Screening invites people who do not have symptoms to undergo testing, whereas health professionals are focused on detecting conditions as early as possible…

Estimated prevalence of undiagnosed HCV infected individuals in Italy: A mathematical model by route of transmission and fibrosis progression

Abstract Background The universal treatment of diagnosed patients with chronic HCV infection has been widely conducted in Italy since 2017. However, the pool of individuals diagnosed but yet to be treated in Italy has been estimated to end around 2025, leaving a significant proportion of infected individuals undiagnosed/without care. Estimates of this population are currently unknown. Methods A probabilistic modelling approach was applied to estimate annual historical HCV incident cases by their age-group (0–100 years) distribution from available literature and Italian National database (1952 to October 2019). Viraemic infection rates were modelled on the main infection routes in Italy: peo…

Real life data on elbasvir/grazoprevir efficacy, safety and drug-drug interaction profile in patients with chronic hepatitis C viral infection: a prospective analysis in the PITER cohort

Introduction: In a previous study, based on PITER cohort data, it was reported that of patients, undergoing direct acting antiviral (DAA) therapy, 30%-44%, are at risk of potential drug-drug interactions (DDI). Aim: We aimed to evaluate the prospective profile of elbasvir/grazoprevir (EBR/GZR) efficacy and safety combined with real life comedication profile. Method: Data from 312 patients (mean age 63 ± 10 years; 44% male, 90% of genotype 1.85% fibrosis stage ≤ F3, 15% with child A cirrhosis), enrolled in PITER by 15 clinical centers and treated with EBR/GZR, with at least three months of follow up after the end of treatment, were evaluated. Comedication profiles (no changes, drugs interrup…

The case for simplifying and using absolute targets for viral hepatitis elimination goals

The 69th World Health Assembly endorsed the Global Health Sector Strategy for Viral Hepatitis, embracing a goal to eliminate hepatitis infection as a public health threat by 2030. This was followed by the World Health Organization's (WHO) global targets for the care and management of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections. These announcements and targets were important in raising awareness and calling for action; however, tracking countries’ progress towards these elimination goals has provided insights to the limitations of these targets. The existing targets compare a country's progress relative to its 2015 values, penalizing countries who started their programmes …

A "systems medicine" approach to the study of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

a b s t r a c t The prevalence of fatty liver (steatosis) in the general population is rapidly increasing worldwide. The progress of knowledge in the physiopathology of fatty liver is based on the systems biology approach to studying the complex interactions among different physiological systems. Similarly, translational and clinical research should address the complex interplay between these systems impacting on fatty liver. The clinical needs drive the applications of systems medicine to re-define clinical phenotypes, assessing the multiple nature of disease susceptibility and progression (e.g. the definition of risk, prognosis, diag- nosis criteria, and new endpoints of clinical trials).…

Modeling NAFLD Disease Burden in China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, United Kingdom, and United States for the period 2016-2030

Background & Aims: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are increasingly a cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma globally. This burden is expected to increase as epidemics of obesity, diabetes and metabolic syndrome continue to grow. The goal of this analysis was to use a Markov model to forecast NAFLD disease burden using currently available data. Methods: A model was used to estimate NAFLD and NASH disease progression in eight countries based on data for adult prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Published estimates and expert consensus were used to build and validate the model projections. Results: If obesity and…

Economic Consequences of Investing in Anti-HCV Antiviral Treatment from the Italian NHS Perspective: A Real-World-Based Analysis of PITER Data

OBJECTIVE:\ud We estimated the cost consequence of Italian National Health System (NHS) investment in direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy according to hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment access policies in Italy.\ud \ud METHODS:\ud A multistate, 20-year time horizon Markov model of HCV liver disease progression was developed. Fibrosis stage, age and genotype distributions were derived from the Italian Platform for the Study of Viral Hepatitis Therapies (PITER) cohort. The treatment efficacy, disease progression probabilities and direct costs in each health state were obtained from the literature. The break-even point in time (BPT) was defined as the period of time required for the cumulativ…