Slope units-based flow susceptibility model: using validation tests to select controlling factors

A susceptibility map for an area, which is representative in terms of both geologic setting and slope instability phenomena of large sectors of the Sicilian Apennines, was produced using slope units and a multiparametric univariate model. The study area, extending for approximately 90 km2, was partitioned into 774 slope units, whose expected landslide occurrence was estimated by averaging seven susceptibility values, determined for the selected controlling factors: lithology, mean slope gradient, stream power index at the foot, mean topographic wetness index and profile curvature, slope unit length, and altitude range. Each of the recognized 490 landslides was represented by its centroid po…

A regional approach for exploring the relation between sediment transport and coastal erosion in Sicily

To study on a regional basis, the relation between fluvial sediment delivery and coastal erosion, the historical record of coastline migration of Sicily was analyzed with respect to the estimated sediment delivery to the coast obtained from the spatially distributed sediment delivery WaTEM/SEDEM model. The latter was directly acquired from the ESDAC database as a 25 m pixel layers, being based on the combination between the RUSLE model and a transport capacity routing algorithm. At the same time, the coastline-evolution (accretion/retreatment) data for 1960/1994 and 1994/2012 intervals were processed. This dataset, provided by ISPRA (Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Resear…

La Franosità diffusa dell'1 Ottobre 2009 nel territorio ionico-peloritano della Provincia di Messina: stato delle indagini e prime considerazioni sulle dinamiche geomorfiche attivate.

A seguito di un evento estremo di pioggia verificatosi il 1 ottobre 2009 in un settore circoscritto del versante ionico della Provincia di Messina, si sono sviluppati numerosi eventi franosi classificabili per la maggior parte come colate di fango e detrito a rapida evoluzione (debris-mud flows). Dai primi sopralluoghi effettuati, in assenza ancora di un censimento sistematico, si sono riconosciuti eventi in numero di oltre 500, che hanno interessato sia nei versanti interni dei bacini idrografici che sversano nello Ionio, sia sui rilievi direttamente prospicienti la costa. L’elevato numero di eventi occorsi ha consentito di dettagliare dal punto di vista morfologico i fenomeni avvenuti e d…

A test of transferability for landslides susceptibility models under extreme climatic events: application to the Messina 2009 disaster

A model building strategy is tested to assess the susceptibility for extreme climatic events driven shallow landslides. In fact, extreme climatic inputs such as storms typically are very local phenomena in the Mediterranean areas, so that with the exception of recently stricken areas, the landslide inventories which are required to train any stochastic model are actually unavailable. A solution is here proposed, consisting in training a susceptibility model in a source catchment, which was implemented by applying the binary logistic regression technique, and exporting its predicting function (selected predictors regressed coefficients) in a target catchment to predict its landslide distribu…

UTILIZZO DEL SISTEMA GOOGLE EARTH PER LA DEFINIZIONE DI UN MODELLO DI SUSCETTIBILITÀ DA FRANA: UN TEST IN SICILIA CENTRALE

Exploiting Google EarthTM to assess a landslide susceptibility model: a test in central Sicily. A landslide susceptibility multivariate model, based on the conditional analysis approach, has been derived in the Tumarrano river basin (about 78 km2), by intersecting a GIS grid layer, expressing some selected geo-environmental conditions (outcropping lithology, steepness, plan curvature and topographic wetness index), and a landslide vector archive, produced by a Google EarthTM aided remote survey. The analysis of the Google EarthTM images dated at 2006, allowed to recognize 733 landslides (30 rotational slides and 703 flows), almost exclusively affecting clay and sandy clay rocks. Validation …

MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF GULLY-EROSION PROCESS: SUSCEPTIBILITY ASSESSMENT AND TEMPORAL VALIDATION IN A WATERSHED OF NORTH-CENTRAL SICILY, ITALY

CART-based gully types classification: a case study in Sicily (Italy)

Gulling is a complex process depending on several factors and involving a wide range of sub-processes. Different types of gullies were distinguished and described in literature. Their contribution to soil erosion changes in relation with the typology and their presence is influenced by different controlling factors. Mapping and classifying gullies is crucial for monitoring soil erosion. So far, no systematic definition of morphological characteristics of the different types of gullies and of their controlling factors has been made. The present work aims to suggest an innovative approach to automatically classify gullies by integrating remote sensing, GIS and a classification algorithm. The …

Monitoring of erosion on two calanchi fronts – Northern Sicily (Italy)

In the present research, two neighbouring calanchi fronts have been monitored by means of repeated readings on erosion pins, that were carried out between November 2006 and October 2008. During the monitoring period, a gauge station has been recording rainfalls, allowing us to compute the Rainfall-Runoff Erosivity Factor of the USLE model. The research highlighted: i) a general correspondence between rainfalls temporal trends and surface variation rhythms; ii) alternating erosion and deposition phases result in a retreat of the “calanchi” fronts.

Analisi geostatistica dei processi erosivi nel bacino del Fiume Naro (Sicilia centro-meridionale)

GIS-analysis of gully erosion susceptibility: a key study in north-central Sicily,Italy

Fattori di controllo sullo sviluppo delle forme calanchive in NW Sicilia, Italia Meridionale

Geomorphological study of “calanchi” slopes of the Scillato basin (northern Sicily)

Validation of multivariated landslide hazard model in the Guddemi river basin (Northern Sicily,Iitaly)

Landform classification: a high-performing mapping unit partitioning tool for landslide susceptibility assessment—a test in the Imera River basin (northern Sicily, Italy)

In landslide susceptibility studies, the type of mapping unit adopted affects the obtained models and maps in terms of accuracy, robustness, spatial resolution and geomorphological adequacy. To evaluate the optimal selection of these units, a test has been carried out in an important catchment of northern Sicily (the Imera River basin), where the spatial relationships between a set of predictors and an inventory of 1608 rotational/translational landslides were analysed using the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) method. In particular, landslide susceptibility models were prepared and compared by adopting four different types of mapping units: the largely adopted grid cells (PX…

Ruolo dei fenomeni di deformazione gravitativa profonda di versante nell'evoluzione geomorfologica di grandi rilievi carbonatici della Sicilia occidentale

Relationships between a new slope morphometric index and calanchi erosion in northern Sicily, Italy

The Italian badlands, or “calanchi”, are common landforms in Mediterranean areas including central and southern Italy. Calanchi landforms may be compared to small hydrographic basins. These landforms are characterised by dense, hierarchical and rapidly evolving drainage systems carved into steep clayey slopes and by a sharply alternating pattern of furrows and narrow, generally sharp crests. This work presents a study of morphometric characteristics and a statistical analysis for two sites in northern Sicily (Italy), on outcrops of silty-clay deposits affected by active erosion processes, which give this area a typical calanchi landscape. In particular, factors closely linked to the charact…

Characterization of the soil properties in agricultural areas affected by shallow landslides: application in Messina area (Sicily).

The determination of soil properties is considerable challenge when it is aimed to evaluate the spatial distribution of one or more parameters across significant surfaces. In fact, terrain sampling and field data are punctual measurement; therefore, quantitative models are needed to predict the spatial distribution of soil attributes. The spatialization of field and laboratory data is a very important information in landslide studies. Raster layers displaying soil properties can be used both for statistical models and for the parameterization of physically based models. The purpose of this work is to produce a detailed hydrological and mechanical characterization of the soil affected by sha…

Geomorphological tools for mapping natural hazards

This special issue presents contributions about the methodologies and tools for representing and mapping geomorphological hazards, with a focus upon hazard and risk classification and tools for lan...

Valutazione dell’erosione del suolo nel bacino del Fiume San Leonardo (Sicilia centro-occidentale, Italia).

Assessment of Gully Erosion Susceptibility Using Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines and Accounting for Terrain Connectivity

In this work, we assessed gully erosion susceptibility in two adjacent cultivated catchments of Sicily (Italy) by employing multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and a set of geo-environmental variables. To explore the influence of hydrological connectivity on gully occurrence we measured the changes of performance occurred when adding one by one nine predictors reflecting terrain connectivity to a base model that included contributing area and slope gradient. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate models performance. Gully predictive models were trained in both the catchments and submitted to internal (in the ca…

Exploring the effect of absence selection on landslide susceptibility models: A case study in Sicily, Italy

Abstract A statistical approach was employed to model the spatial distribution of rainfall-triggered landslides in two areas in Sicily (Italy) that occurred during the winter of 2004–2005. The investigated areas are located within the Belice River basin and extend for 38.5 and 10.3 km 2 , respectively. A landslide inventory was established for both areas using two Google Earth images taken on October 25th 2004 and on March 18th 2005, to map slope failures activated or reactivated during this interval. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) were used to prepare 5 m grids of the dependent variables (absence/presence of landslide) and independent variables (lithology and 13 DEM-derivatives). Mul…

Mapping Susceptibility to Debris Flows Triggered by Tropical Storms: A Case Study of the San Vicente Volcano Area (El Salvador, CA)

In this study, an inventory of storm-triggered debris flows performed in the area of the San Vicente volcano (El Salvador, CA) was used to calibrate predictive models and prepare a landslide susceptibility map. The storm event struck the area in November 2009 as the result of the simultaneous action of low-pressure system 96E and Hurricane Ida. Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) was employed to model the relationships between a set of environmental variables and the locations of the debris flows. Validation of the models was performed by splitting 100 random samples of event and non-event 10 m pixels into training and test subsets. The validation results revealed an excellent (…

A multi-scale regional landslide susceptibility assessment approach: the SUFRA_SICILIA (SUscettibilità da FRAna in Sicilia) project

The SUFRA project is based on a three level susceptibility mapping. According to the availability of more detailed data, the three scale for susceptibility mapping are increased respect to the ones suggested by the TIER group to 1:100,000, 1:50,000 and 1:25,000/1:10,000. The mapping levels exploit climatic, soil use (CORINE2009) and seismic informative layers, differentiating in the details of the core data (geology and topography), in the quality and resolution of the landslide inventory and in the modelling approach (Tab. 1). SUFRA_100 is based on a heuristic approach which is applied by processing a geologic layer (produced by ARTA integrating pre-CARG 1:100,000 geologic maps); the DEM e…

Geomorphological, chemical and physical study of “calanchi” landforms in NW Sicily (southern Italy)

Abstract This work deals with an integrated geomorphological and chemical–physical study of “calanchi” landforms in two sites (Ottosalme and Catalfimo) of NW Sicily (southern Italy), developed on dominant silty-clay deposits. The calanchi fronts are characterized by different morphological features and dominant geomorphic processes. Sharp knife-edged ridges and concentrated water runoff dominate at Ottosalme, and smoother landforms affected by mass movements (mud flows and translational slides) prevail at Catalfimo. We focused on some geochemical and physical parameters such as pH , total dissolved salts, sodium adsorption ratio ( SAR ), porosity, plastic and liquid limits as possible cause…

Application of RUSLE model for the assessment of soil erosion in the western sector of Palermo Mountains (north-western Sicily)

The aim of this work is to study the impact of vegetation cover on water erosion phenomena by exploiting an integrated approach to the assessment of soil loss rates. The investigated area is located in the western portion of the mountainous group named “Monti di Palermo” and occupies an area of approximately 475 km2; this area, which extends from sea level up to about 1,300 m, is mainly characterized by the presence of lithosols and luvisols laying above carbonate and terrigenous substrates. The assessment of erosion intensity was indirectly obtained by applying the RUSLE model, that allowed to estimate soil loss produced by rill-interrill erosion phenomena. Starting from topographical and …

The geo-hydrologic event in the Peloritan – Ionian area of 2009: debris-flow susceptibility assessment by means of forward logistic regression

On the 1st of October 2009, the area centred on the village of Giampilieri (Messina), on the Ionian side of the Peloritan belt, suffered thousands of landslides activated in the time lapse of about five hours, which caused 36 victims, more than 100 injured and more than 0.5M€ of damage to structures. This unprecedented phenomenon was triggered by an exceptional meteorological event, recorded at the foothills with 250mm of rain in just 8 hours; this amount of rainfall was cumulated to two previous events (16/IX: 75mm; 23/IX: 190mm) for a total amount of more than 500mm in less than two weeks. Due to the peculiar triggering conditions a huge number of debris flows involved the shallow weather…

Soil erosion in Mediterranean environment: The conceptual approach of the EROMED Project to assess regional impacts of global change in Italy.

The Madonie Geopark (Italy): geological and geomorphological features

Rockfall hazards of Mount Pellegrino area (Sicily, Southern Italy)

A map derived by rockfall analysis at Mount Pellegrino is presented herein. The study area is affected by several phenomena of rockfall which caused numerous damage and a strong social and economic impact. Official reports and maps that give a general assessment of rockfall hazard are available in this respect, however, it would be advisable to provide a more specific cartographic support useful for land management and planning. The drafting of new maps showing the rockfall runout areas is an additional tool that may be used in conjunction with the existing maps as a means of risk mitigation and reduction. On the basis of geological, geomorphological, and geomechanical analysis and exploiti…

Analysis of the Rockfall Phenomena Contributing to the Evolution of a Pocket Beach Area Using Traditional and Remotely Acquired Data (Lo Zingaro Nature Reserve, Southern Italy)

The coastal domain of central western Sicily is characterized by the presence of rocky coasts, which mainly consist of pocket beaches situated between bedrock headlands that constitute ecological niches of great touristic and economic value. In this peculiar morphodynamic system, the sedimentary contributions are mainly derived from the rockfall that affects the back of nearby cliffs or the sediment supply of small streams that flow into it. In this study, we investigated the geomorphological processes and related landforms that contribute to the evolution of a pocket beach area located in a coastal sector of NW Sicily Island. The cliffs in this are affected by several rockfalls, and deposi…

Superfici di erosione sub-planari in un’area della Sicilia centro-meridionale.

Soil erosion susceptibility assessment and validation using a geostatistical multivariate approach: a test in southern Sicily

A certain number of studies have been carried out in recent years that aim at developing and applying a model capable of assessing water erosion of soil. Some of these have tried to quantitatively evaluate the volumes of soil loss, while others have focused their efforts on the recognition of the areas most prone to water erosion processes. This article presents the results of a research whose objective was that of evaluating water erosion susceptibility in a Sicilian watershed: the Naro river basin. A geomorphological study was carried out to recognize the water erosion landforms and define a set of parameters expressing both the intensity of hydraulic forces and the resistance of rocks/so…

Landslide susceptibility assessment in Sicily: a key study in the central chain sector (Sicani Mounts)

Assessment of susceptibility to earth-flow landslide using logistic regression and multivariate adaptive regression splines: A case of the Belice River basin (western Sicily, Italy)

Abstract In this paper, terrain susceptibility to earth-flow occurrence was evaluated by using geographic information systems (GIS) and two statistical methods: Logistic regression (LR) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). LR has been already demonstrated to provide reliable predictions of earth-flow occurrence, whereas MARS, as far as we know, has never been used to generate earth-flow susceptibility models. The experiment was carried out in a basin of western Sicily (Italy), which extends for 51 km 2 and is severely affected by earth-flows. In total, we mapped 1376 earth-flows, covering an area of 4.59 km 2 . To explore the effect of pre-failure topography on earth-flow sp…

A multidisciplinary approach to the evaluation of the mechanism that triggered the Cerda landslide (Sicily, Italy).

Abstract The present paper describes a multidisciplinary approach to the evaluation of a seismically triggered landslide that occurred in the Cerda area (Italy) on September 6, 2002, about 1 h after an earthquake took place in the south Tyrrhenian Sea. The study was focused on an analysis of the role of the seismic input in triggering the landslide, in view of the evidence that no other mass movement was recorded in the adjacent areas despite geological and geomorphological spatial homogeneity. The studied area is located on a slope of the western flank of the Fiume Imera Settentrionale (Northern Sicily), which is made up of clayey–arenitic rocks. The slope inclines gently but is not unifor…

Factors selection in landslide susceptibility modelling on large scale following the gis matrix method: application to the river Beiro basin (Spain)

A procedure to select the controlling factors connected to the slope instability has been defined. It allowed us to assess the landslide susceptibility in the Rio Beiro basin (about 10 km2) over the northeastern area of the city of Granada (Spain). Field and remote (Google EarthTM) recognition techniques allowed us to generate a landslide inventory consisting in 127 phenomena. To discriminate between stable and unstable conditions, a diagnostic area had been chosen as the one limited to the crown and the toe of the scarp of the landslide. 15 controlling or determining factors have been defined considering topographic, geologic, geomorphologic and pedologic available data. Univariate tests, …

Susceptibility analysis for seismically-induced landslides: application to the 2001 earthquakes in El Salvador (C.A.)

<p>The geodynamic context in which El Salvador is located, made of a convergent structure characterized by the interaction among six different plates, together with the lithological characteristics of the outcropping rocks and soils (mainly corresponding to deeply weathered acid pyroclastites, basic effusive rocks and volcanic ashes), are responsible for the very high seismically-induced landslide susceptibility of the country. These predisposing factors were decisive on the occurrence of thousands of seismically-induced landslides caused by two huge earthquakes on 13<sup>th</sup> January and 13<sup>th</sup> February 2001…

Earth-flow susceptibility assessment in the Marvello River basin (Sicily, Italy)

In this study, statistical models of earth-flow susceptibility were prepared using logistic regression. The analyses were carried out in a small (51 km2) basin of western Sicily, where 1,376 earth-flows were identified. To predict the spatial distribution of the mapped landslides, outcropping lithology and seven topographic attributes were exploited as explanatory variables. Before calculating these variables, a reconstruction of the pre-failure topography was performed. To evaluate the predictive skill and the robustness of the models, two groups made of five random subsets of earth-flows and stable cells were prepared. Absences of the first group were selected as individual cells whereas …

Water erosion susceptibility mapping by applying Stochastic Gradient Treeboost to the Imera Meridionale River Basin (Sicily, Italy)

Abstract Soil erosion by water constitutes a serious problem affecting various countries. In the last few years, a number of studies have adopted statistical approaches for erosion susceptibility zonation. In this study, the Stochastic Gradient Treeboost (SGT) was tested as a multivariate statistical tool for exploring, analyzing and predicting the spatial occurrence of rill–interrill erosion and gully erosion. This technique implements the stochastic gradient boosting algorithm with a tree-based method. The study area is a 9.5 km 2 river catchment located in central-northern Sicily (Italy), where water erosion processes are prevalent, and affect the agricultural productivity of local commu…

Predicting the landslides triggered by the 2009 96E/Ida tropical storms in the Ilopango caldera area (El Salvador, CA): optimizing MARS-based model building and validation strategies

The main topic of this research was to evaluate the effect in the performance of stochastic landslide susceptibility models, produced by differences between the triggering events of the calibration and validation datasets. In the Caldera Ilopango area (El Salvador), MARS (multivariate adaptive regression splines)-based susceptibility modeling was applied using a set of physical–environmental predictors and two remotely recognized landslide inventories: one dated at 2003 (1503 landslides), which was the result of a normal rainfall season, and one which was produced by the combined effect of the Ida hurricane and the 96E tropical depression in 2009 (2237 landslides). Both the event inventorie…

Quantitative analysis of “calanchi” slopes in northern Sicily: erosion rates and their relationships with rainfalls and physico-chemical properties of terrains

Multi-scale regional landslide susceptibility assessment in Sicily (Italy): The Sufra Sicilia Project

КАРТА ПОДВЕРЖЕННОСТИ ОПОЛЗНЕВОЙ ОПАСНОСТИ ТЕРРИТОРИИ РАЙОНОВ ШИЛАТО И КАЛЬТАВУТУРО (СЕВЕРНАЯ СИЦИЛИЯ). Logistic regression method for landslides susceptibility in Scillato and Caltavuturo river basin, Northern Sicily -

The studied area is located within two Sicilian districts– Scillato and Caltavuturo. Studied area is 200 km2. This territory is affected by large landslides very strongly. In the course of the research these districts were divided into 2 million square units of 10 × 10 m. Values of landslide factors were assessed within each unit. Using method of logistic regression allowed us to select the most significant factors and to make the landslide susceptibility map. Landslide hazard analys was made with 3 models, which analyze different diagnostic areas (places, where landslides are trigger usually). The results indicate that the using of the buffer zone with radius 50 m around the highest point …

Morphoevolutive models of the deep-seated gravitational slope deformation phenomena in Sicily Chain

Un approccio multi-scala per la valutazione della suscettibilità da frana a livello regionale: il progetto SUFRA (SUscettibilità da FRAna) in Sicilia

L’attuale versione del PAI (Piano Stralcio per l'Assetto Idrogeologico) disponibile per il territorio siciliano è fortemente dipendente dallo scenario di dissesti passati censiti e catalogati, sulla base dei quali, utilizzando un sistema di matrici di valutazione, è possibile ricavare le condizioni di rischio geomorfologico associato. Questo stadio costituisce un primo grande avanzamento delle conoscenze a partire dal quale è ora necessario procedere alla valutazione della suscettibilità da frana e all’adozione dunque di uno strumento di analisi territoriale con carattere previsionale. La realizzazione di una cartografia della suscettibilità da frana a scala regionale pone d’altra parte una…

Landslide hazard analysis in the Iato River basin

Exploiting Maximum Entropy method and ASTER data for assessing debris flow and debris slide susceptibility for the Giampilieri catchment (north-eastern Sicily, Italy)

This study aims at evaluating the performance of the Maximum Entropy method in assessing landslide susceptibility, exploiting topographic and multispectral remote sensing predictors. We selected the catchment of the Giampilieri stream, which is located in the north-eastern sector of Sicily (southern Italy), as test site. On 1 October 2009, a storm rainfall triggered in this area hundreds of debris flow/avalanche phenomena causing extensive economical damage and loss of life. Within this area a presence-only-based statistical method was applied to obtain susceptibility models capable of distinguishing future activation sites of debris flow and debris slide, which where the main source of fai…

Modelli predittivi di morfologie erosive e di frana nell'area di testata del bacino del fiume Imera Meridionale, Sicilia (Italia)

The 1st October 2009 Messina debris flows: first analysis for a susceptibility model

Calanchi landforms in south Italy: a comparison between Calabria and Sicilia case studies

Comparing binary logistic regression and stochastic gradient boosting techniques in debris-flows susceptibility modelling: application in North-Eastern Sicily

Gully erosion susceptibility assessment by means of GIS-based logistic regression: A case of Sicily (Italy)

article i nfo Article history: This research aims at characterizing susceptibility conditions to gully erosion by means of GIS and multivariate statistical analysis. The study area is a 9.5 km 2 river catchment in central-northern Sicily, where agriculture ac- tivities are limited by intense erosion. By means of field surveys and interpretation of aerial images, we prepared a digitalmap of thespatial distribution of 260 gulliesinthestudy area.Inaddition,fromavailable thematicmaps, a 5 m cell size digital elevation model and field checks, we derived 27 environmental attributes that describe the variability of lithology, land use, topography and road position. These attributes were selected f…

Combining multi-typologies landslide susceptibility maps: a case study for the Visso area (central Italy)

The research proposes a simple but geomorphologically adequate method to produce a combined landslide susceptibility map. In fact, in a logic of real use, offering type-specific landslide susceptibility maps to land use planners and administration could be not a successful solution. On the other hand, the simple grouping of more types of landslides could be misleading for model calibration considering that the relationships between slope failures and geo-environmental predictors should be conveyed by the abundance of each type of landslide resulting not specific and diagnostic for each typology. In this test, after having produced independent models for flow, slide and complex landslide by …

Comparing Logistic Regression and MARS approaches for gully erosion susceptibility evaluation in central-northern Sicily

Exploiting Maximum Entropy method and ASTER data for assessing debris flow and debris slide susceptibility for the Giampilieri catchment (north-eastern Sicily, Italy)

This study aims at evaluating the performance of the Maximum Entropy method in assessing landslide susceptibility, exploiting topographic and multispectral remote sensing predictors. We selected the catchment of the Giampilieri stream, which is located in the north-eastern sector of Sicily (southern Italy), as test site. On 1 October 2009, a storm rainfall triggered in this area hundreds of debris flow/avalanche phenomena causing extensive economical damage and loss of life. Within this area a presence-only-based statistical method was applied to obtain susceptibility models capable of distinguishing future activation sites of debris flow and debris slide, which where the main source of fai…

Landslide susceptibility modelling for extreme rainfall-triggered multiple landslides: a key study from the 2009 event in the Giampilieri Area(Sicily, Italy)

From Slope Morphometry to Morphogenetic Processes: An Integrated Approach of Field Survey, Geographic Information System Morphometric Analysis and Statistics in Italian Badlands

Calanchi (singular: calanco) represent a typical example of badlands in the Italian peninsula, which rapidly evolve on clayey terrains such as the widespread Pliocene–Pleistocene marine clays. The present study aimed at investigating the role of the slope morphometry on the typology and distribution of morphogenetic processes in a calanchi area located in southern Italy. The research included detailed geomorphological surveying as well as morphometric and statistical analyses. The study area was first subdivided into individual hydrographic units (HUs), for which field survey allowed to identify the dominant denudation processes, their intensity and the distribution of the associated landfo…

Analisi geostatistica della franosità nel bacino del Torrente Guddemi (Sicilia centro-occidentale)

Monitoring of erosion on two calanchi fronts - rill, gully erosion and piping in northern Sicily (Italy)

Schema geomorfologico della Penisola di Capo San Vito (Sicilia nord-occidentale)

Extension of landslide susceptibility models: a test in the Platani river basin (Southern Sicily)

Multi-method evaluation of denudation rates in small mediterranean catchments

The paper presents the results of the research tasks of the Quantitative Geomorphology Working Group (of the Italian Association of Physical Geography and Geomorphology) focused on multi-method evaluation of denudation rates in small catchments of Italy. Several study areas are compared with the goal of quantifying the morphodynamic evolution in different response times and with traditional and innovative techniques. The final aims are the direct erosion monitoring, the geomorphic analysis for the comprehension of drainage basin morphodynamics, up to the geomorphological hazard evaluation. The catchments are key Mediterranean areas particularly sensitive to climatic and anthropic modificati…

Exporting a Google Earth™ aided earthflow susceptibility model: a test in central Sicily

Abstract In the framework of a regional landslide susceptibility study in southern Sicily, a test has been carried out in the Tumarrano river basin (about 80 km2) aimed at characterizing its landslide susceptibility conditions by exporting a ‘‘source model’’, defined and trained inside a limited (about 20 km2) representative sector (the ‘‘source area’’). Also, the possibility of exploiting Google Earth TM software and photo-images databank to produce the landslide archives has been checked. The susceptibility model was defined, according to a multivariate geostatistic approach based on the conditional analysis, using unique condition units (UCUs), which were obtained by combining four selec…

Confronto di due approcci statistici non parametrici per la valutazione della suscettibilità da frana nella catena appenninica settentrionale siciliana: tavolette I.G.M.I. Scillato e Caltavuturo

Oggigiorno, la valutazione della diversa importanza delle variabili geoambientali nel determinare le condizioni di suscettibilità da frana di un’area è uno dei problemi più attuali della geologia. L’uso ed il confronto di due differenti approcci statistici, ha consentito di stimare le condizioni di predisposizione all’instabilità gravitativa dei versanti, per un esteso settore settentrionale della catena appenninica siciliana, ricadente all’interno delle tavolette I.G.M.I. nn. 259 I SE “Scillato” e 259 II NE “Caltavuturo”. L’area oggetto della sperimentazione, estesa circa 200 Km2, è stata suddivisa in maniera semi-automatica in 1827 unità idro-morfologiche o unità di versante. Per ciascun’…

Hydrogeological Behaviour and Geochemical Features of Waters in Evaporite-Bearing Low-Permeability Successions: A Case Study in Southern Sicily, Italy

Knowledge about the hydrogeological behaviour of heterogeneous low-permeability media is an important tool when designing anthropogenic works (e.g., landfills) that could potentially have negative impacts on the environment and on people&rsquo

Predicting Earthquake-Induced Landslides by Using a Stochastic Modeling Approach: A Case Study of the 2001 El Salvador Coseismic Landslides

In January and February 2001, El Salvador was hit by two strong earthquakes that triggered thousands of landslides, causing 1259 fatalities and extensive damage. The analysis of aerial and SPOT-4 satellite images allowed us to map 6491 coseismic landslides, mainly debris slides and flows that occurred in volcanic epiclastites and pyroclastites. Four different multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) models were produced using different predictors and landslide inventories which contain slope failures triggered by an extreme rainfall event in 2009 and those induced by the earthquakes of 2001. In a predictive analysis, three validation scenarios were employed: the first and the second …

Geomorphology of the Capo San Vito Peninsula (NW Sicily): An Example of Tectonically and Climatically Controlled Landscape

The Capo San Vito peninsula is located along the north-westernmost sector of the Sicilian coastline. It is characterized by a complex geomorphological setting, where a large variety of coastal, gravity-induced and karst landforms allow the visitor to easily detect the interactions between Quaternary tectonics and climate changes as well as morphodynamic processes responsible for shaping the landscape. Thanks to natural reserves, the peninsula preserves a typical Mediterranean natural environment, marked by spectacular and suggestive landforms.

Investigating Limits in Exploiting Assembled Landslide Inventories for Calibrating Regional Susceptibility Models: A Test in Volcanic Areas of El Salvador

This research is focused on the evaluation of the reliability of regional landslide susceptibility models obtained by exploiting inhomogeneous (for quality, resolution and/or triggering related type and intensity) collected inventories for calibration. At a large-scale glance, merging more inventories can result in well-performing models hiding potential strong predictive deficiencies. An example of the limits that such kinds of models can display is given by a landslide susceptibility study, which was carried out for a large sector of the coastal area of El Salvador, where an apparently well-performing regional model (AUC = 0.87) was obtained by regressing a dataset through multivariate ad…

Forward logistic regression for earth-flow landslide susceptibility assessment in the Platani river basin (southern Sicily, Italy)

Forward logistic regression has allowed us to derive an earth-flow susceptibility model for the Tumarrano river basin, which was defined by modeling the statistical relationships between an archive of 760 events and a set of 20 predictors. For each landslide in the inventory, a landslide identification point (LIP) was automatically produced as corresponding to the highest point along the boundary of the landslide polygons, and unstable conditions were assigned to cells at a distance up to 8 m. An equal number of stable cells (out of landslides) was then randomly extracted and appended to the LIPs to prepare the dataset for logistic regression. A model building strategy was applied to enlarg…

Gully Erosion susceptibility assesment: a case study in the Magazzolo River Basin, Sicily, Italy.

Using topographical attributes to evaluate gully erosion proneness (susceptibility) in two mediterranean basins: advantages and limitations

Empirical multivariate predictive models represent an important tool to estimate gully erosion susceptibility. Topography, lithology, climate, land use and vegetation cover are commonly used as input for these approaches. In this paper, two multivariate predictive models were generated for two gully erosion processes in San Giorgio basin (Italy) and Mula River basin (Spain) using only topographical attributes as independent variables. Initially, nine models (five for San Giorgio and four for Mula) with pixel sizes ranging from 2 to 50 m were generated, and validation statistics were calculated to estimate the optimal pixel size. The best models were selected based on model performance using…

Soil Erosion and Deposition Rate Inside an Artificial Reservoir in Central Italy: Bathymetry versus RUSLE and Morphometry

This study, using different direct and indirect methodologies, evaluated the sedimentation rate in an artificial reservoir in central Italy. This reservoir is regionally representative and was built in the 1960s for hydroelectric purposes; it has experienced a strong decrease in trap efficiency and a loss of over 70% of the stored water volume. Direct measurements of the lake bottom bathymetry, carried out in 2006 and 2015, and 3D reconstructions performed in a GIS environment, made it possible to calculate the volume of filling material and to verify an increasing trend in the sedimentation rate since 2006. The sample reservoir denudation rate was compared with that obtained using the Revi…

Exploring relationships between grid cell size and accuracy for debris-flow susceptibility models: a test in the Giampilieri catchment (Sicily, Italy)

Debris flows are among the most hazardous phenomena in nature, requiring the preparation of suscep- tibility models in order to cope with this severe threat. The aim of this research was to verify whether a grid cell-based susceptibility model was capable of predicting the debris- flow initiation sites in the Giampilieri catchment (10 km2), which was hit by a storm on the 1st October 2009, resulting in more than one thousand landslides. This kind of event is to be considered as recurrent in the area as attested by historical data. Therefore, predictive models have been prepared by using forward stepwise binary logistic regression (BLR), a landslide inventory and a set of geo- environmental …

3D- and spatial analysis GIS-tools for the study of sequences of relict sub-planar erosion surfaces

Improving transferability strategies for debris flow susceptibility assessment: Application to the Saponara and Itala catchments (Messina, Italy)

Abstract Debris flows can be described as rapid gravity-induced mass movements controlled by topography that are usually triggered as a consequence of storm rainfalls. One of the problems when dealing with debris flow recognition is that the eroded surface is usually very shallow and it can be masked by vegetation or fast weathering as early as one-two years after a landslide has occurred. For this reason, even areas that are highly susceptible to debris flow might suffer of a lack of reliable landslide inventories. However, these inventories are necessary for susceptibility assessment. Model transferability, which is based on calibrating a susceptibility model in a training area in order t…

Analisi mediante GIS dei processi di erosione nel bacino del Fiume Naro (Sicilia Centro-meridionale, Italia)

Regional debris flow susceptibility assessment using HRDEM: Example of the city area of Messina (Sicily, Italy)

Shallow landslide and debris flows are among the most dangerous natural hazards triggered by extreme meteorological events. These phenomena have recently caused catastrophic scenarios in Italy (e.g. in Sarno-Quindici and Giampilieri) and, according to expected changes in the climate pattern, an increasing frequency of these phenomena is expected. The aim of this research is to assess the debris flow susceptibility in the Giampilieri area (Sicily) using a spatially-distributed debris flow runout model based on topographic information. The application of the model starts with the identification of the source areas from which debris flows are propagated on the basis of frictional laws and flow…

Optimal slope units partitioning in landslide susceptibility mapping

In landslide susceptibility modeling, the selection of the mapping units is a very relevant topic both in terms of geomorphological adequacy and suitability of the models and final maps. In this paper, a test to integrate pixels and slope units is presented. MARS (Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines) modeling was applied to assess landslide susceptibility based on a 12 predictors and a 1608 cases database. A pixel-based model was prepared and the scores zoned into 10 different types of slope units, obtained by differently combining two half-basin (HB) and four landform classification (LCL) coverages. The predictive performance of the 10 models were then compared to select the best perf…

Gis-analysis to assess landslide susceptibility in a fluvial basin of NW Sicily (Italy).

Abstract Landslide hazard assessment, effected by means of geostatistical methods, is based on the analysis of the relationships between landslides and the spatial distributions of some instability factors. Frequently such analyses are based on landslide inventories in which each record represents the entire unstable area and is managed as a single instability landform. In this research, landslide susceptibility is evaluated through the study of a variety of instability landforms: landslides, scarps and areas uphill from crown . The instability factors selected were: bedrock lithology, steepness, topographic wetness index and stream power index. The instability landform densities computed f…

Predicting storm-triggered debris flow events: application to the 2009 Ionian Peloritan disaster (Sicily, Italy)

Abstract. The main assumption on which landslide susceptibility assessment by means of stochastic modelling lies is that the past is the key to the future. As a consequence, a stochastic model able to classify past known landslide events should be able to predict a future unknown scenario as well. However, storm-triggered multiple debris flow events in the Mediterranean region could pose some limits on the operative validity of such an expectation, as they are typically resultant of a randomness in time recurrence and magnitude and a great spatial variability, even at the scale of small catchments. This is the case for the 2007 and 2009 storm events, which recently hit north-eastern Sicily …

First results of water erosion rates monitoring on two calanchi fronts in the Sicilian chain

Modeling landslide susceptibility by using GIS-analysis and multivariate adaptive regression splines

Landslide susceptibility may be evaluated by defining statistical relationships between the spatial distribution of past slope failures and the variability of landslide triggering factors. In this research, susceptibility to landsliding was assessed by employing multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), a statistical model that has been rarely used to this aim. The experiment was carried out in an area of central Sicily (Italy), which is severely affected by shallow landslides mainly occurring during the wet autumn- winter semester. Bedrock lithology and a set of primary and secondary topographic attributes were exploited as proxies of main landslide driving factors. The robustness o…

Exploiting ArcGIS and Google Earthtm to assess an earth flow susceptibility model in central Sicily

Multi-parametric GIS analysis to assess gully erosion susceptibility: a test in southern Sicily, Italy

: A GIS-analysis was carried out in a test basin of southern Sicily, the Magazzolo River basin, in order to assess susceptibility conditions to gully erosion phenomena. The linear density of ephemeral and permanent gullies computed within each class of nine environmental variables was used to generate a gully erosion susceptibility map for the area. A validation procedure carried out in order to test the reliability of the adopted method highlighted a clear correlation between the occurrence of gullies and the computed susceptibility levels

Geomorphological setting of Madonie Geopark (Italy)

The Madonie Natural Park is characterized by relevant zoological and botanic aspects and by geological features so remarkable that since 2001 it has been incorporated into the European Geoparks Network. The Park is marked by a wide massif know as Madonie Mountains. In this area, segment of the Maghrebide-Apenninic chain, successions of Meso-Cenozoic lithologies and late- and post-orogenic deposits occur. The geomorphological setting is extremely varied and includes many landscapes characterising several Sicilian areas; it results from the interaction between geomorphological processes, tectonic movements and climatic changes. It is possible to identify five distinct sectors, each correspond…

Landslide hazard analysis using GIS, Fiumara di Rosmarino, North-Eastern Sicily

Binary logistic regression versus stochastic gradient boosted decision trees in assessing landslide susceptibility for multiple-occurring landslide events: application to the 2009 storm event in Messina (Sicily, southern Italy)

This study aims to compare binary logistic regression (BLR) and stochastic gradient treeboost (SGT) methods in assessing landslide susceptibility within the Mediterranean region for multiple-occurrence regional landslide events. A test area was selected in the north-eastern sector of Sicily (southern Italy) where thousands of debris flows and debris avalanches triggered on the first October 2009 due to an extreme storm. Exploiting the same set of predictors and the 2009 event landslide archive, BLR- and SGT-based susceptibility models have been obtained for the two catchments separately, adopting a random partition (RP) technique for validation. In addition, the models trained in one catchm…

An Approach for the Validation of a Coastal Erosion Vulnerability Index: An Application in Sicily

In recent decades, coastal erosion phenomena have increased due to climate change. The increased frequency and intensity of extreme events and the poor sediment supply by anthropized river basins (dams, river weirs, culverts, etc.) have a crucial role in coastal erosion. Therefore, an integrated analysis of coastal erosion is crucial to produce detailed and accurate coastal erosion vulnerability information to support mitigation strategies. This research aimed to assess the erosion vulnerability of the Sicilian coast, also including a validation procedure of the obtained scenario. The coastal vulnerability was computed by means of the CeVI (Coastal Erosion Vulnerability Index) approach, whi…

Landslide susceptibility zonation by exploiting GIS tools and two statistical methods: binary logistic regression and multivariate adaptive regression splines. A test in western Sicily (Italy)

In the recent years advanced statistical methods and GIS tools have been frequently used to assess landslide susceptibility. The latter is estimated by establishing statistical relationships between landscape characteristics and spatial distribution of past slope-failures. These are mapped mainly by recognizing changes on slope morphology produced by gravity. Despite of this, most of the researches on landslide susceptibility do not consider that slope-failures modify topography and associate high probability of landsliding with topographic characteristics that differ from those that led slope-failures. In this research we analyzed landslide susceptibility in the basin of the Malvello river…

Exploring relationships between pixel size and accuracy for debris flow susceptibility models: a test in the Giampilieri catchment (Sicily, Italy).

Debris flows are among the most hazardous phenomena in nature, which typically take the form of multiple-occurrence regional landslide events triggered by intense driving inputs such as storms or earthquakes. The main tasks of this study were to verify whether cell-based susceptibility models is capable of predicting debris flow initiations in the Giampilieri catchment (southern Italy) and to explore the relationships between the pixel size of the adopted mapping units in terms of predictive performances of the derived models. The Giampilieri catchment is a small area (10km 2 ) hit by a storm on the 1 st October 2009 which resulted in the triggering of more than one thousand landslides and …

FROM SLOPE MORPHOMETRY TO MORPHOGENETIC PROCESSES: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH OF FIELD SURVEY, GIS MORPHOMETRIC ANALYSIS AND STATISTICS IN ITALIAN BADLANDS

Calanchi (singular calanco) represent a typical example of badlands in the Italian peninsula, which rapidly evolve on clayey terrains such as the widespread Pliocene-Pleistocene marine clays. The present study aimed at investigating the role of the slope morphometry on the typology and distribution of morphogenetic processes in a calanchi area located in southern Italy. The research included detailed geomorphological surveying, morphometric and statistical analysis. The study area was first subdivided into individual hydrographic units (HUs), for which field survey allowed to identify the dominant denudation processes, their intensity and the distribution of the associated landforms (pipes,…

Factor selection procedures in a Google Earthtm aided landslide susceptibility model: application to the Beiro river basin (Spain)

A procedure to select the controlling factors connected to the slope instability has been defined. It allowed to assess the landslide susceptibility in the Rio Beiro basin (about 10 km2) over the north-eastern area of the city of Granada (Spain). Field and remote (Google EarthTM) recognition techniques allowed to generate a landslide inventory consisting in 127 phenomena. Univariate tests, using both association coefficients and validation results of single parameter susceptibility models, allowed to select among 15 controlling factors the ones that resulted as good predictor variables; these have been combined for unique conditions analysis and susceptibility maps were finally prepared. In…

Susceptibility assessment for flows landslide in the upper Salso river basin (Sicily)

Predicting gully occurrence at watershed scale: Comparing topographic indices and multivariate statistical models

In this study, the ability of five topographic indices to predict the gully trajectories observed in two adjacent watersheds located in Sicily (Italy) was evaluated. Two of these indices, named MSPI and MTWI, as far as we know, have never been employed to this aim. They were obtained by multiplying the stream power index (SPI) and the topographic wetness index (TWI), respectively, by the convergence index (CI). The predictive ability of the topographic indices was measured by using both cut-off independent (AUC: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and dependent statistics (Cohen's kappa index κ, sensitivity, specificity). These statistics were calculated also for 100 MAR…

Realizzazione di una rete di monitoraggio geodetico della frana di Scopello (Sicilia nord-occidentale)

L’area di Scopello (Sicilia Nord-Occidentale) è da tempo oggetto di studi che, sulla base di osservazioni e rilievi geomorfologici, hanno consentito sia di riconoscere la presenza di frane superficiali e di fenomeni di deformazione gravitativa profonda di versante (DGPV), sia di ipotizzare cause e tipologie dei movimenti in atto, giungendo alla definizione di un primo modello interpretativo. I movimenti franosi si sviluppano lungo i settori costieri dell’area di Scopello, dove è a giorno un piano di sovrascorrimento del Miocene superiore, che vede la sovrapposizione di unità rigide, costituite da successioni carbonatiche meso-cenozoiche, su unità duttili, costituite, al tetto, da argille-ma…

L'acqua ed il rischio geomorfologico

The role of the diagnostic areas in the assessment of landslide susceptibility models: a test in the sicilian chain

Abstract The aim of the research was to verify and compare the predictive power of different diagnostic areas in assessing landslide susceptibility with a multivariate approach. Scarps, landslide areas (the union between scarp and accumulation zones) and areas uphill from crowns, for rotational slides, source or scarp areas and landslide areas, for flows, have been tested. A multivariate approach was applied to assess the landslide susceptibility on the basis of three selected conditioning factors (lithology, slope angle, and topographic wetness index), which were combined in a Unique Condition Unit (UCU) layer. By intersecting the UCU layer with the vector layer of the diagnostic areas, la…

GPS Monitoring of the Scopello (Sicily, Italy) DGSD Phenomenon: Relationships Between Surficial and Deep-Seated Morphodynamics

The Scopello area, which is located along the north-western Tyrrhenian coastal sector of the Sicilian chain (Italy), is widely affected by Deep-seated Gravitational Slope Deformation (DGSD) phenomena, which are mainly the result of a geomorphologic setting marked by the outcropping of an overthrust plan, limiting a brittle fractured carbonate slab, laid onto a ductile marly-clayey substratum. Due to the very advanced stage of the deformation phenomena, a coupled morphodynamic style has established between shallow landslides and DGSD phenomena, affecting the exhumed ductile substratum and the overlaying rigid dismantled slab, respectively. A GPS network was realized for monitoring the Scopel…

Investigating the Effects of Cell Size in Statistical Landslide Susceptibility Modelling for Different Landslide Typologies: A Test in Central–Northern Sicily

Optimally sizing grid cells is a relevant research issue in landslide susceptibility evaluation. In fact, the size of the adopted mapping units influences several aspects spanning from statistical (the number of positive/negative cases and prevalence and resolution/precision trade-off) and purely geomorphological (the representativeness of the mapping units and the diagnostic areas) to cartographic (the suitability of the obtained prediction images for the final users) topics. In this paper, the results of landslide susceptibility modelling in a 343 km2 catchment for three different types of landslides (rotational/translational slides, slope flows and local flows) using different pixel-size…

Prediction of debris-avalanches and -flows triggered by a tropical storm by using a stochastic approach: An application to the events occurred in Mocoa (Colombia) on 1 April 2017

Abstract Landslides are among the most dangerous natural processes. Debris avalanches and debris flows in particular have often caused casualties and severe damage to infrastructures in a wide range of environments. The assessment of susceptibility to these phenomena may help policy makers in mitigating the associated risk and thus it has attracted special attention in the last decades. In this experiment, we assessed susceptibility to debris-avalanche and -flow landslides by using a stochastic approach. Two different modeling techniques were employed: i) Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) and ii) Logistic Regression (LR). Both MARS and LR allow for calculating the probability …

Geoelectrical study of archaeological structures in the Himera plane (North-western Sicily)

This paper presents the results obtained from a geoelectrical study carried out on the Himera plane for archaeological research. Both the tripotential method and the dipole-dipole profile method have been used on a 40 m ´ 40 m investigation area in order to obtain several resistivity maps. The latter show different geoelectrical anomalies, the shape of which allows us to interpret simple archaeological structures, consistent with current knowledge of ancient Himera sites. Furthermore, the study of the whole set of data in the resistivity domain has allowed us to infer some other characteristics from the subsequent geological process of alluvial covering of the site.

Evaluation of debris flow susceptibility in El Salvador (CA): a comparison between Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) and Binary Logistic Regression (BLR)

In the studies of landslide susceptibility assessment, which have been developed in recent years, statistical methods have increasingly been applied. Among all, the BLR (Binary Logistic Regression) certainly finds a more extensive application while MARS (Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines), despite the good performance and the innovation of the strategies of analysis, only recently began to be employed as a statistical tool for predicting landslide occurrence. The purpose of this research was to evaluate the predictive performance and identify possible drawbacks of the two statistical techniques mentioned above, focusing in particular on the prediction of debris flows. To this aim, an…

A GIS-based approach for gully erosion susceptibility modelling: a test in Sicily, Italy

The aim of this study is to analyze the susceptibility conditions to gully erosion phenomena in the Magazzolo River basin and to test a method that allows for driving the factors selection. The study area is one of the largest (225 km2) watershed of southern Sicily and it is mostly characterized by gentle slopes carved into clayey and evaporitic sediments, except for the northern sector where carbonatic rocks give rise to steep slopes. In order to obtain a quantitative evaluation of gully erosion susceptibility, statistical relationships between the spatial distributions of gullies affecting the area and a set of twelve environmental variables were analyzed. Stereoscopic analysis of aerial …

Landslide susceptibility assessment in the upper Imera river basin (central Sicilian chain)

Landslide analysis in the Iato river basin (north-western Sicily, Italy)

Combining multi-typologies landslide susceptibility maps: a case study for the Visso area (central Italy)

The research proposes a simple but geomorphologically adequate method to produce a combined landslide susceptibility map. In fact, in a logic of real use, offering type-specific landslide susceptibility maps to land use planners and administration could be not a successful solution. On the other hand, the simple grouping of more types of landslides could be misleading for model calibration considering that the relationships between slope failures and geo-environmental predictors should be conveyed by the abundance of each type of landslide resulting not specific and diagnostic for each typology. In this test, after having produced independent models for flow, slide and complex landslide by …