0000000000654920
AUTHOR
Rolando Gonzales Martínez
showing 5 related works from this author
The Wage Curve, Once More with Feeling: Bayesian Model Averaging of Heckit Models
2018
The sensitivity of the wage curve to sample-selection and model uncertainty was evaluated with Bayesian methods. More than 8000 Heckit wage curves were estimated using data from the 2017 household survey of Bolivia. After averaging the estimates with the posterior probability of each model being true, the wage curve elasticity in Bolivia is close to -0.01. This result suggests that in this country the wage curve is inelastic and does not follow the international statistical regularity of wage curves.
The interaction effect of gender and ethnicity in loan approval: A Bayesian estimation with data from a laboratory field experiment
2019
Microfinance targets women and uses loan provision as a tool for empowerment, which translates into better household nutrition, improved education, and a scale down of domestic violence. However, ethnic discrimination in microfinance may exist in countries with a segregated indigenous population. We assessed this possibility with a field experiment in Bolivia. The controlled laboratory experiment evaluated whether credit officers rejected microloan applications based on the interaction effect of ethnicity and gender of potential borrowers. Point estimates of a Bayesian mixed‐effects logistic regression, estimated with the experimental data, indicate that nonindigenous women have double the …
Work-related and personal predictors of COVID-19 transmission: evidence from the UK and USA
2021
ObjectiveTo develop evidence of work-related and personal predictors of COVID-19 transmission.Setting and respondentsData are drawn from a population survey of individuals in the USA and UK conducted in June 2020.Background methodsRegression models are estimated for 1467 individuals in which reported evidence of infection depends on work-related factors as well as a variety of personal controls.ResultsThe following themes emerge from the analysis. First, a range of work-related factors are significant sources of variation in COVID-19 infection as indicated by self-reports of medical diagnosis or symptoms. This includes evidence about workplace types, consultation about safety and union memb…
Environmental risk factors of airborne viral transmission: Humidity, Influenza and SARS-CoV-2 in the Netherlands
2020
AbstractObjectiveThe relationship between specific humidity and influenza/SARS-CoV-2 in the Netherlands is evaluated over time and at regional level.DesignParametric and non-parametric correlation coefficients are calculated to quantify the relationship between humidity and influenza, using five years of weekly data. Bayesian spatio-temporal models—with a Poisson and a Gaussian likelihood—are estimated to find the relationship between regional humidity and the daily cases of SARS-CoV-2 in the municipalities and provinces of the Netherlands.ResultsAn inverse (negative) relationship is observed between specific humidity and the incidence of influenza between 2015 and 2019. The space-time anal…
Bifurcations in business profitability: An agent-based simulation of homophily in self-financing groups
2021
Abstract Formal financial institutions inadequately distribute startup capital to business ventures of ethnic minorities, women, low-educated, and young people. Self-financing groups fill this gap because in these associations agents accumulate their savings into a fund that is later used to provide loans to the members. This study builds and simulates an agent-based model that compares the profitability of businesses started by members of self-financing groups against businesses financed by commercial loans. The results indicate that—besides the self-generation of debt capital—businesses of members of self-financing groups can have higher returns due to the consolidation of social capital …