Towards automatic calibration of 2-D flood propagation models

Abstract. Hydraulic models for flood propagation description are an essential tool in many fields and are used, for example, for flood hazard and risk assessments, evaluation of flood control measures, etc. Nowadays there are many models of different complexity regarding the mathematical foundation and spatial dimensions available, and most of them are comparatively easy to operate due to sophisticated tools for model setup and control. However, the calibration of these models is still underdeveloped in contrast to other models like e.g. hydrological models or models used in ecosystem analysis. This has two primary reasons: first, lack of relevant data against which the models can be calibr…

Hydroclimatological characterisation of extreme events in Sicilian region finalised to describe regional hydrological patterns and to predict flood regime in ungauged catchments.

Estimation of flood inundation probabilities using hydrodynamic indexes with uncertainty analysis

Specific calibration and predictive uncertainty evaluation strategies for flood propagation models

Hydraulic models are an essential tool in many fields, e.g. civil engineering, flood hazard and risk assessments, evaluation of flood control measures, etc. Nowadays there are many models of different complexity regarding the mathematical foundation and spatial dimensions available, and most of them are comparatively easy to operate due to sophisticated tools for model setup and control. However, the calibration of these models is still underdeveloped in contrast to other models like e.g. hydrological models or models used in ecosystem analysis. This has basically two reasons: First, the lack of relevant data against the models can be calibrated, because flood events are very rarely monitor…

Estimation of flood inundation probabilities using global hazard indexes based on hydrodynamic variables

In this paper a new procedure to derive flood hazard maps incorporating uncertainty concepts is presented. The layout of the procedure can be resumed as follows: (1) stochastic input of flood hydrograph modelled through a direct Monte-Carlo simulation based on flood recorded data. Generation of flood peaks and flow volumes has been obtained via copulas, which describe and model the correlation between these two variables independently of the marginal laws involved. The shape of hydrograph has been generated on the basis of a historical significant flood events, via cluster analysis; (2) modelling of flood propagation using a hyperbolic finite element model based on the DSV equations; (3) de…