Probabilistic Flood Hazard Mapping Using Bivariate Analysis Based on Copulas

This study presents a methodology to extract probabilistic flood hazard maps in an area subject to flood risk, taking into account uncertainties in the definition of design hydrographs. Particularly, the authors present a new method to produce probabilistic inundation and flood hazard maps in which the hydrological input (i.e., synthetic flood design event) to a 2D hydraulic model has been obtained by using a bivariate statistical analysis (copulas) to generate flood peak discharges and volumes. This study also aims to quantify the contribution of boundary conditions’ uncertainty in order to evaluate the effect of this uncertainty source on probabilistic flood hazard mapping. Different comb…

Derivazione delle curve di frequenza di portate al colmo per bacini non strumentati a partire da informazioni regionalizzate

Probabilistic characterization of flood hazard using bivariate analysis based on copulas

This study presents an innovative approach to obtain flood hazard maps where hydrological input (synthetic flood design event) to a 2D hydraulic model has been defined by generating flood peak discharges and volumes from a bivariate statistical analysis, through the use of copulas. Synthetic hydrographs were generated by means two different approaches: an indirect one, where rainfall were generated by a stochastic bivariate rainfall generator to be entered a distributed conceptual rainfall-runoff model that consisted of a soil moisture routine and a flow routing routine; and a direct one, where stochastic generation of flood peaks and flow volumes have been obtained via copulas, which descr…

Towards automatic calibration of 2-D flood propagation models

Abstract. Hydraulic models for flood propagation description are an essential tool in many fields and are used, for example, for flood hazard and risk assessments, evaluation of flood control measures, etc. Nowadays there are many models of different complexity regarding the mathematical foundation and spatial dimensions available, and most of them are comparatively easy to operate due to sophisticated tools for model setup and control. However, the calibration of these models is still underdeveloped in contrast to other models like e.g. hydrological models or models used in ecosystem analysis. This has two primary reasons: first, lack of relevant data against which the models can be calibr…

Influenza dell'incertezza relativa alla scala delle portate sulla modellazione afflussi-deflussi a scala giornaliera

Le misure di portate defluenti in un corso d’acqua sono solitamente affette da Incertezza dovuta ad una serie di cause concorrenti che influenza fortemente la risposta dei modelli afflussi-deflussi. Nella presente memoria viene analizzata l’influenza dell’incertezza relativa alla scala di deflusso sulla modellazione della risposta idrologica di un bacino idrografico a scala giornaliera. A tal fine è stato utilizzato un modello concettuale, basato sulla teoria dell’IUH (Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph), che tiene conto insieme delle trasformazioni lineari e non lineari che conducono alla formazione del deflusso fluviale a partire da dati giornalieri di pioggia, temperatura dell’aria. La Propag…

Efficienza idrologico-idraulica di pavimentazioni semi-permeabili per il controllo degli allagamenti pluviali

La sostenibilità del binomio “acqua – città” è uno spunto interessante di discussione e confronto nell’ambito delle diverse discipline che affrontano il tema dell’ambiente urbano, delle sue continue trasformazioni, e della necessità di resilienza agli allagamenti. Le soluzioni tecniche e tecnologiche oggi a disposizione di chi si occupa di queste problematiche, per affrontare il tema di un rapporto sostenibile tra l’acqua e l’ambiente urbano sono molteplici, alcune tradizionali e di consolidata esperienza, altre innovative e di più recente applicazione sul campo. L’urbanizzazione influisce negativamente sulla formazione e propagazione dei deflussi; nelle aree urbanizzate i rapidi processi d…

Studying The Hydrological Response Of Urban Catchments Using A Semi-Distributed Linear Non-Linear Model

A conceptual rainfall-runoff model for urban catchment, which incorporates, semi-distributed modelling concepts has been developed. In the proposed model, the catchment is divided in external sub-catchments connected to the drainage network. Each external sub-catchment is modelled as two separate conceptual linear elements, a reservoir and a channel, one for the pervious part, the other for the impervious part of the drainage area. The drainage network is schematised as a cascade of non-linear cells and the flood routing is simplified in the form of kinematic wave and represented as a flux transfer between adjacent cells. Tests carried out using data from the Parco d'Orleans experimental ca…

Uncertainty and Equifinality in Calibrating Distributed Roughness Coefficients in a Flood Propagation Model with Limited Data

Monte-Carlo simulations of a two-dimensional finite element model of a flood in the southern part of Sicily were used to explore the parameter space of distributed bed-roughness coefficients. For many real-world events specific data are extremely limited so that there is not only fuzziness in the information available to calibrate the model, but fuzziness in the degree of acceptability of model predictions based upon the different parameter values, owing to model structural errors. Here the GLUE procedure is used to compare model predictions and observations for a certain event, coupled with both a fuzzy-rule-based calibration, and a calibration technique based upon normal and heteroscedast…

Stagionalità e regime delle piene in Sicilia

Rainfall thresholds derivation for warning pluvial flooding risk in urbanised areas

Aim of this work is the development of an operational tool for pluvial flooding warning in an urban area based on off-line rainfall thresholds derived by coupling a rainfall–runoff modelling and a hydraulic routing. The critical conditions considered for issue flood warnings were not only based on the water stage, but also on the extension of the flooded area. Further, a risk assessment framework for quantifying the reliability of the rainfall thresholds has been included; rainfall thresholds used in pluvial flooding warning should be influenced by the uncertainties in the rainfall characteristics (i.e. rainfall duration, depth and storm pattern). This risk assessment framework incorporates…

Estimation of synthetic flood design hydrographs using a distributed rainfall–runoff model coupled with a copula-based single storm rainfall generator

Abstract. In this paper a procedure to derive synthetic flood design hydrographs (SFDH) using a bivariate representation of rainfall forcing (rainfall duration and intensity) via copulas, which describes and models the correlation between two variables independently of the marginal laws involved, coupled with a distributed rainfall–runoff model, is presented. Rainfall–runoff modelling (R–R modelling) for estimating the hydrological response at the outlet of a catchment was performed by using a conceptual fully distributed procedure based on the Soil Conservation Service – Curve Number method as an excess rainfall model and on a distributed unit hydrograph with climatic dependencies for the …

Derivation of flood frequency curves in poorly gauged Mediterranean catchments using a simple stochastic hydrological rainfall-runoff model

In this paper a Monte Carlo procedure for deriving frequency distributions of peak flows using a semi-distributed stochastic rainfall-runoff model is presented. The rainfall-runoff model here used is very simple one, with a limited number of parameters and practically does not require any calibration, resulting in a robust tool for those catchments which are partially or poorly gauged. The procedure is based on three modules: a stochastic rainfall generator module, a hydrologic loss module and a flood routing module. In the rainfall generator module the rainfall storm, i.e. the maximum rainfall depth for a fixed duration, is assumed to follow the two components extreme value (TCEV) distribu…

Uncertainty analysis of the influence of rainfall time resolution in the modelling of urban drainage systems

In urban drainage modelling, rainfall temporal variability can be considered as one of the most critical knowledge elements when dealing with rainfall–runoff models input data. The rainfall data temporal resolution usually available for practical applications is often lower than that requested for the rainfall–runoff simulation in urban areas, greatly compromising model accuracy. The present paper evaluates the influence of rainfall temporal resolution on the uncertainty of the response of rainfall–runoff modelling in urban environments. Analyses have been carried out using historical rainfall–discharge data collected for about 10 years in Parco d'Orleans experimental catchment (Palermo, It…

Flood proofing measures cost-efficiency analysis for hydraulic risk mitigation in an urbanized riverine area.

<div> <div> <div> <p><strong>Flood proofing measures cost-efficiency analysis for hydraulic risk mitigation in an urbanized riverine area</strong></p> <p>Ugo Ventimiglia <sup>2</sup>, Angela Candela <sup>1,</sup> Giuseppe Tito Aronica <sup>2</sup></p> <p><sup>1 </sup>Department of Engineering, University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy</p> <p><sup>2 </sup>Department of Engineerin…

Influence of surface roughness in hydrological response of semiarid catchments

Abstract Here, an investigation has been carried out in order to understand the influence of the surface roughness in the definition of the hydrological response of semiarid catchments. Following a previous study of one of the authors, a modified version of TOPMODEL is used, in which the convolution routing procedure has been extended to the hillslopes by specifying the routing velocity for each pixel of the watershed. These velocities have been linked to the watershed land use through the different surface roughness whose coefficients has been derived on the basis of Engman's table. In this paper, roughness coefficient distributions are expressed as function of a unique value treated as a …

Rainfall erosivity over the Calabrian region

Abstract Following the results of a study carried out for the neighbouring Sicilian region, this paper reports a study of the applicability of the annual value, Faj, of the Arnouldus index to represent the erosion risk in Calabrian region. Firstly, By using 214 values of the mean annual value of the erosivity index, FF, and a Kriging interpolation method, an isoerosivity map is plotted. Then, in order to predict the erosion risk for an event of any return period, the probability distribution of the Faj index is studied. An in situ statistical analysis, carried out by using candidate distributions with two parameters (Gauss, LN2, EV1 and Weibull distribution), showed that the EV1 and LN2 law…

Investigating the changes in extreme rainfall series recorded in an urbanised area

The aim of this study is to investigate and quantify changes in the rainfall regime of the metropolitan area of Palermo characterised by increasingly strong urbanisation. The rainfall data, considered in this study, were collected on a yearly basis from eight rain gauges within and outside the metropolitan area of Palermo, Sicily, Italy. A preliminary analysis made on the annual total rainfall depths showed a global reduction of total annual rainfall, with two different trends: more regular for the series observed in the rain gauges within the urbanised area and more variable for the series observed in the rain gauges outside the area. A further analysis has been performed using the series …

Estimation of flood inundation probabilities using global hazard indexes based on hydrodynamic variables

In this paper a new procedure to derive flood hazard maps incorporating uncertainty concepts is presented. The layout of the procedure can be resumed as follows: (1) stochastic input of flood hydrograph modelled through a direct Monte-Carlo simulation based on flood recorded data. Generation of flood peaks and flow volumes has been obtained via copulas, which describe and model the correlation between these two variables independently of the marginal laws involved. The shape of hydrograph has been generated on the basis of a historical significant flood events, via cluster analysis; (2) modelling of flood propagation using a hyperbolic finite element model based on the DSV equations; (3) de…

A cost efficiency analysis of flood proofing measures for hydraulic risk mitigation in an Urbanized riverine area

Non-structural measures for flood risk mitigation are often more economically accessible, easier to implement, and are highly effective, especially in view of the pursuit of risk resilience objectives. Among the non-structural measures, more importance is increasingly being attributed to flood proofing interventions. There are two main types of flood proofing: dry proofing and wet proofing. An example of dry proofing is shielding, which involves the use of flood barriers that can be installed in the entrances of buildings or outside the buildings in order to avoid contact with the houses and deviate the water flow. Their use must be supported by a detailed hydraulic analysis to ensure the c…

Estimation of flood design hydrographs using bivariate analysis (copula) and distributed hydrological modelling

Abstract. In this paper a procedure to derive Flood Design Hydrographs (FDH) using a bivariate representation of rainfall forcing (rainfall duration and intensity) using copulas, which describe and model the correlation between these two variables independently of the marginal laws involved, coupled with a distributed rainfall-runoff model is presented. Rainfall-runoff modelling for estimating the hydrological response at the outlet of a watershed used a conceptual fully distributed procedure based on the soil conservation service – curve number method as excess rainfall model and a distributed unit hydrograph with climatic dependencies for the flow routing. Travel time computation, based o…

Pluvial flooding in urban areas: the role of surface drainage efficiency

Hydrological simulation using a bivariate approach based on copulas for the assessment of inundation risk scenarios down-stream of flood control reservoirs

Aim of this study was to assess operational reservoir rules for evaluating flood risk scenarios using a MonteCarlo bivariate framework. It involves a stochastic procedure to calculate flood hydrographs and, then, flood inundation area evaluation through a 2D hydraulic model to estimate the inundation risk and, as consequence, the relative damage evaluation, under different operation strategies of an upstream reservoir. The entire procedure can be summarised as follows: single synthetic stochastic rainfall events have been derived using a Monte Carlo proce-dure through a bivariate copulas analysis; synthetic bivariate stochastic inflow hydrographs have been derived by using a conceptual full…

Analysis of the Effects of Reservoir Operating Scenarios on Downstream Flood Damage Risk Using an Integrated Monte Carlo Modelling Approach

The aim of this study is to analyse the effects of reservoir operating scenarios, for flood damage evaluation downstream of a dam, using a Monte Carlo bivariate modelling chain. The proposed methodology involves a stochastic procedure to calculate flood hydrographs and the evaluation of the consequent flood inundation area by applying a 2D hydraulic model. These results are used to estimate the inundation risk and, as consequence, the relative damage evaluation under different water level conditions in an upstream reservoir. The modelling chain can be summarized as follows: single synthetic stochastic rainfall event generation by using a Monte Carlo procedure through a bivariate copulas ana…

Estimation of sub-hourly DDF curves using scaling properties of hourly and sub-hourly data at partially gauged site

Abstract In urban drainage systems, knowledge of short-duration rainfall events can be considered as one of the most critical elements when their hydrological behaviour wants to be investigated. The temporal resolution of rainfall data usually available for practical applications is often lower than the data requested for the design procedures or mathematical models application, greatly affecting their reliability. Moreover, when high resolution rain gauges are available in the catchment, the registration period cannot be sufficiently long for obtaining practically usable statistical analyses. The present study proposes a method for estimating the distribution of sub-hourly extreme rainfall…