Simulating the evolution of stakes on Réunion Island in a context of coastal risk

This paper describes a model and a simulation tool which aim at help decision-makers and planners dealing with their processes for territorial prospective analysis. It is based on a practical study case, located on Réunion Island (France). This study has been carried out within the VULNERARE research program, granted by Foundation de France: one of VULNERARE aims is to estimate and assess Réunion's vulnerability in the next 30 years, in relation to coastal risk. This paper is specifically focussing on the dynamics and the future state of two important stakes: population and urban structures. Will urban development of littoral zones increase? How fast and which type of population will be exp…