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RESEARCH PRODUCT

Simulating the evolution of stakes on Réunion Island in a context of coastal risk

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This paper describes a model and a simulation tool which aim at help decision-makers and planners dealing with their processes for territorial prospective analysis. It is based on a practical study case, located on Réunion Island (France). This study has been carried out within the VULNERARE research program, granted by Foundation de France: one of VULNERARE aims is to estimate and assess Réunion's vulnerability in the next 30 years, in relation to coastal risk. This paper is specifically focussing on the dynamics and the future state of two important stakes: population and urban structures. Will urban development of littoral zones increase? How fast and which type of population will be exposed to flood risk in the future? First, this paper presents a spatial model of Réunion territory, as well as its parameters and its main variables. A second part presents a simulation tool-the computation of the model-that estimates the evolution of Réunion over 30 years. Then, a third part describes the simulation's results. Different scenarios are presented and results are overlaid to a natural risk prevention plan. Finally, the limits and relevance of the model and the simulation as tools for territorial engineering are discussed.