6533b7d6fe1ef96bd1266f96
RESEARCH PRODUCT
Relative sea-level rise and potential submersion risk for 2100 on 16 coastal plains of the mediterranean sea
Giovanni ScicchitanoGiovanni ScardinoMarco AnzideiMarcello PetittaDavide BonaldoValeria Lo PrestiFabrizio AntonioliAntonella MarsicoGiuseppe MastronuzziGabriele LeoniGiovanni De FalcoStefano FurlaniGiovanni RandazzoLorenzo MorettiSandro Carnielsubject
Coastal plainMediterranean climateMediterranean Sea coastal plains relative sea-level rise 2100 marine submersionlcsh:Hydraulic engineering010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciencesCoastal plainRelative sea-level riseGeography Planning and DevelopmentSubmersion (coastal management)Aquatic Science010502 geochemistry & geophysics01 natural sciencesBiochemistryMediterranean sealcsh:Water supply for domestic and industrial purposesPeninsulalcsh:TC1-978Human settlementSea level0105 earth and related environmental sciencesWater Science and Technologygeographylcsh:TD201-5002100geography.geographical_feature_categoryCoastal plainsMarine submersion2100; Coastal plains; Marine submersion; Mediterranean sea; Relative sea-level riseTectonicsMediterranean seaPhysical geographyMediterranean Sea; coastal plains; relative sea-level rise; 2100; marine submersiondescription
The coasts of the Mediterranean Sea are dynamic habitats in which human activities have been conducted for centuries and which feature micro-tidal environments with about 0.40 m of range. For this reason, human settlements are still concentrated along a narrow coastline strip, where any change in the sea level and coastal dynamics may impact anthropic activities. In the frame of the RITMARE and the Copernicus Projects, we analyzed light detection and ranging (LiDAR) and Copernicus Earth Observation data to provide estimates of potential marine submersion for 2100 for 16 small-sized coastal plains located in the Italian peninsula and four Mediterranean countries (France, Spain, Tunisia, Cyprus) all characterized by different geological, tectonic and morphological features. The objective of this multidisciplinary study is to provide the first maps of sea-level rise scenarios for 2100 for the IPCC RCP 8.5 and Rahmstorf (2007) projections for the above affected coastal zones, which are the locations of touristic resorts, railways, airports and heritage sites. On the basis of our model (eustatic projection for 2100, glaciohydrostasy values and tectonic vertical movement), we provide 16 high-definition submersion maps. We estimated a potential loss of land for the above areas of between about 148 km2 (IPCC-RCP8.5 scenario) and 192 km2 (Rahmstorf scenario), along a coastline length of about 400 km.
| year | journal | country | edition | language |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-08-01 |