6533b7d8fe1ef96bd126972d

RESEARCH PRODUCT

Modelling of Adequate Costs of Utilities Services

Janis ValeinisGirts KarnitisJanis ZutersEdvins Karnitis

subject

CorrelationMean squared errorComputer science020209 energyMultilayer perceptronGeneralized additive modelStatistics0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineeringDeviance (statistics)02 engineering and technologyPerformance indicatorPerceptronNonlinear regression

description

The paper propose methodology for benchmark modelling of adequate costs of utilities services, which is based on the data analysis of the factual cases (key performance indicators of utilities as the predictors). The proposed methodology was tested by modelling of Latvian water utilities with three tools: (1) a classical version of the multi-layer perceptron with error back-propagation training algorithm was sharpened up with task-specific monotony tests, (2) the fitting of the generalized additive model using the programming language R ensured the opportunity to evaluate the statistical significance and confidence bands of predictors, (3) the sequential iterative nonlinear regression process with minimizing mean squared error provided the notion of the impact of each predictor on the searched regularity. The quality of models is high: the adjusted determination coefficient is greater than 0.75, explained deviance exceeds 0.80, while the correlation between the respective modelled values exceeds even 0.95.

yearjournalcountryeditionlanguage
2016-01-01
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-46254-7_1