6533b823fe1ef96bd127e0fe

RESEARCH PRODUCT

Forecast Output Coincidence and Biproportion: Two Criteria to Determine the Orientation of an Economy. Comparison for France (1980-1997)

Louis De Mesnard

subject

BiproportionEconomics and EconometricsJEL: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C6 - Mathematical Methods • Programming Models • Mathematical and Simulation Modeling/C.C6.C67 - Input–Output ModelsSupplyChangeJEL: D - Microeconomics/D.D5 - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium/D.D5.D57 - Input–Output Tables and AnalysisStability (probability)Column (database)CoincidenceSupply and demandMicroeconomicsJEL: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C6 - Mathematical Methods • Programming Models • Mathematical and Simulation Modeling/C.C6.C63 - Computational Techniques • Simulation ModelingEconometricsEconomicsDemandJEL : D - Microeconomics/D.D5 - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium/D.D5.D57 - Input–Output Tables and Analysis[ SHS.ECO ] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economies and finances[SHS.ECO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and FinanceInput/outputJEL : C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C6 - Mathematical Methods • Programming Models • Mathematical and Simulation Modeling/C.C6.C67 - Input–Output ModelsOrientation (computer vision)Exogenous factorFilter (signal processing)[SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and FinanceJEL : C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C6 - Mathematical Methods • Programming Models • Mathematical and Simulation Modeling/C.C6.C63 - Computational Techniques • Simulation ModelingInput-OutputRAS

description

International audience; The method of forecast output coincidence used to determine if sectors are demand-sided or supply-sided in an input-output framework mixes two effects, the structural effect (choosing between demand and supply side models) and the effect of an exogenous factor (final demand or added-value). The note recalls that another method is possible, the comparison of the stability of technical and allocation coefficients, generalized by the biproportional filter: if for a sector, after biproportional filtering, column coefficients are more stable than row coefficients, then this sector is declared as not supply-sided (but one cannot decide that it is demand-sided anyway), and conversely.

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00383929