6533b82afe1ef96bd128b9c5
RESEARCH PRODUCT
The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions.
Guobao XuGuobao XuChristophe CoronaRob WilsonRob WilsonUlf BüntgenJosef LudescherKathy AllenKathy AllenDominique ArseneaultAlexander V. KirdyanovAlexander V. KirdyanovWolfgang Jens-henrik MeierJoel GuiotPaolo CherubiniMarkus StoffelClive OppenheimerClive OppenheimerBjörn E. GunnarsonSebastian GuilletKristina SeftigenKristina SeftigenA. StineBao YangBao YangA. M. TrevinoKevin J. AnchukaitisMatthew W. SalzerMalcolm K. HughesJianglin WangJianglin WangScott St. GeorgeKurt NicolussiFabio GennarettiAchim BräuningPeter HuybersSamuli HelamaPaul J. KrusicPaul J. KrusicOlga V. Churakova (Sidorova)Jan EsperVladimir S. MyglanValerie TrouetErnesto TejedorPhilipp HochreutherSnigdhansu ChatterjeeJussi GrießingerFrederick ReinigÉTienne BoucherÉTienne Bouchersubject
/141/704/106/694010506 paleontology010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciencesScienceGeneral Physics and AstronomyClimate changePalaeoclimate01 natural sciencesArticleGeneral Biochemistry Genetics and Molecular BiologyPaleoclimatologySDG 13 - Climate ActionDendrochronologyddc:550Climate change[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment0105 earth and related environmental sciencesResearch dataddc:333.7-333.913 Climate ActionClimate change; Palaeoclimate; Research dataGEMultidisciplinaryQNorthern HemisphereDASGeneral ChemistryResearch data/706/648/697Geography13. Climate actionClimatology/704/106/413GE Environmental Sciencesdescription
Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794–2016 CE at 0.79 (p < 0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a more consensual picture of past climate variability.
| year | journal | country | edition | language |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-06-07 |