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RESEARCH PRODUCT

Using foresight exercise to design adaptation policy to climate change: The case of the French wine industry

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Foresight studies are regularly conducted at sectoral or geographical scales, in order to help policy makers and economic actors to define their strategy of adaptation to climate change (CC). Some studies are rather “quick exercises”, in which a panel of experts is consulted to define the expected impacts of CC and to identify adaptation leviers for future policy. In other cases, a true foresight methodology is developed, leading to the building of scenarios based on : i) a systemic and participatory approach, ii) the definition of key variables, iii) the choice of assumptions and the coherent relations between these assumptions, the narrative description of scenarios. This participatory dimension of the approach may be relevant to better integrate the climate change challenge into future strategies chosen by decision makers. Such an exercise was conducted in the framework of the multidisciplinary INRA / LACCAVE research project (2013–2017) to consider the CC adaptation strategy that could be implemented in the French wine industry by 2050. This communication presents the outcomes and insights opened up by this prospective exercise, based on a new approach derived from the scenarios method, following two main steps : 1) The first step consists of a “classical”, topdown, expert-led prospective approach, including the selection of four possible adaptation scenarios ; it was presented at the OIV Congress in Bento Gonc¸alves in 2016. 2) The second step is based on a bottom-up participatory approach with regional and national stakeholders during six regional meetings. Each meeting brought together 60 to 100 actors invited to interact on four scenarios and on solutions that could be developed : the “Conservative scenario” driven by incremental changes ; the “Innovative scenario” driven by the development of a wide range of technical innovations ; the “Nomad scenario” focusing on the relocation of vineyards ; the “Liberal scenario” where “everything would be possible anywhere”. A national working group has been set up by INAO1 and FranceAgriMer2, inviting the main national wine organizations to analyze the information collected during the regional meetings. This working group aims at making proposals to design the future climate strategy of the sector, taking into account the inter-regional diversity of situations. The participants expressed common positions (perception of limited resilience of the wine industry, increasing need for innovation, opposition to the relocation of vineyards...), but regional specificities were also noted (for example : development of irrigation in the south of France or calls for new research on pest control in other French regions). The large majority of stakeholders wanted to favor the pathway to the innovative scenario, with several regional variations. This foresight exercise generated a greater stakeholder awareness of the CC issue, leading to the implementation of collective actions at different scales. Its findings will provide significant support to the wine industry in developing a national climate strategy, taking into account regional specificities.