6533b82bfe1ef96bd128ce2f
RESEARCH PRODUCT
Cumulative Prognostic Score Predicting Mortality in Patients Older Than 80 Years Admitted to the ICU
De Lange D. W.Brinkman S.Flaatten H.Boumendil A.Morandi A.Andersen F. H.Artigas A.Bertolini G.Cecconi M.Christensen S.Faraldi L.Fjolner J.Jung C.Marsh B.Moreno R.Oeyen S.Ohman C. A.Bollen Pinto B.De Smet A. M. G. A.Soliman I. W.Szczeklik W.Valentin A.Watson X.Zafeiridis T.Guidet B.Schmutz R.Wimmer F.Eller P.Joannidis M.De Buysscher P.De Neve N.Swinnen W.Abraham P.Hergafi L.Schefold Joerg. C.Biskup E.Piza P.Taliadoros I.Dey N.Solling C.Rasmussen B. S.Forceville X.Besch G.Mentec H.Michel P.Mateu P.Michel P.Vettoretti L.Bourenne J.Marin N.Guillot M.Aissaoui N.Goulenok C.Thieulot-rolin N.Messika J.Lamhaut L.Charron C.Lauten A.Sacher A. L.Brenner T.Franz M.Bloos F.Ebelt H.Schaller S. J.Fuest Kristina.Rabe C.Dieck T.Steiner S.Graf T.Nia A. M.Janosi R. A.Meybohm P.Simon P.Utzolino S.Rahmel T.Barth E.Jung C.Schuster M.Aidoni Z.Aloizos S.Tasioudis P.Lampiri K.Zisopoulou V.Ravani I.Pagaki E.Antoniou A.Katsoulas T. A.Kounougeri A.Marinakis G.Tsimpoukas F.Spyropoulou A.Zygoulis P.Kyparissi A.Gupta M.Gurjar M.Maji I. M.Hayes I.Kelly Y.Westbrook A.Fitzpatrick G.Maheshwari D.Motherway C.Negri G.Spadaro S.Nattino G.Pedeferri M.Boscolo A.Rossi S.Calicchio G.Cubattoli L.Di Lascio G.Barbagallo M.Berruto F.Codazzi D.Bottazzi A.Fumagalli P.Negro G.Lupi G.Savelli F.Vulcano Giuseppe. A.Fumagalli R.Marudi A.Lefons U.Lembo R.Babini M.Paggioro A.Parrini V.Zaccaria M.Clementi S.Gigliuto C.Facondini F.Pastorini S.Munaron S.Calamai I.Bocchi A.Adorni A.Bocci M. G.Cortegiani A.Casalicchio T.Mellea S.Graziani E.Barattini M.Brizio E.Rossi M.Hahn M.Kemmerer N.Strietzel H. F.Dybwik K.Legernaes T.Klepstad P.Olaussen E. B.Olsen K. I.Brresen O. M.Bjorsvik G.Maini S.Fehrle L.Czuczwar M.Krawczyk P.Zietkiewicz M.Nowak L. R.Kotfis K.Cwyl K.Gajdosz R.Biernawska J.Bohatyrewicz Romuald.Gawda R.Grudzien P.Nasilowski P.Popek N.Cyrankiewicz W.Wawrzyniak K.Wnuk M.Maciejewski D.Studzinska D.Zukowski M.Bernas S.Piechota M.Piechota M.Nowak I.Fronczek J.Serwa M.Machala W.Stefaniak J.Wujtewicz M.Maciejewski P.Szymkowiak M.Adamik B.Catorze N.Branco M. C.Barros I.Barros N.Krystopchuk A.Honrado T.Sousa C.Munoz F.Rebelo M.Gomes R.Nunes J.Dias Celeste.Fernandes A. M.Petrisor C.Constantin B.Belskiy V.Boskholov B.Rodriguez E.Rebollo S.Aguilar G.Masdeu G.Jaimes M. I.Mira A. P.Bodi Maria. A.Mendoza J. A. B.Cuenca S. L.Guzman M. H.Rico-feijoo J.Ibarz M.Alvarez J. T.Kawati R.Sivik J.Nauska J.Smole D.Parenmark F.Lyren J.Rockstroh K.Ryden S.Strinnholm M.Walther S.De Geer L.Nordlund P.Palsson S.Zetterquist H.Nilsson A.Thiringer K.Jungner M.Bark B.Nordling B.Skold H.Brorsson C.Persson S.Bergstrom A.Berkius J.Holmstrom J.Van Dijk I.Van Lelyveld-haas L. E. M.Ramnarain D.Jansen T.Nooteboom F.Van Der Voort P. H. J.Dieperink W.De Waard M. C.Bormans L.Dormans Tom.Dempsey G.Mathew S. J.Raj A. S.Grecu I.Cupitt J.Lawton T.Clark R.Popescu M.Spittle N.Faulkner M.Cowton A.Elloway E.Williams P.Reay M.Chukkambotla S.Kumar R.Al-subaie N.Kent L.Tamm T.Kajtor I.Burns K.Pugh R.Ostermann M.Kam E.Bowyer H.Smith N.Templeton M.Henning J.Goffin K.Kapoor R.Laha S.Chilton P.Khaliq W.Crayford A.Coetzee S.Tait M.Stoker W.Gimenez M.Pope A.Camsooksai J.Pogson D.Quigley K.Ritzema J.Hormis A.Boulanger C.Balasubramaniam M.Vamplew L.Burt K.Martin D.Grecu I.Craig J.Prowle J.Doyle N.Shelton J.Scott Carmen.Donnison P.Shelton S.Frey C.Ryan C.Spray D.Ryan C.Barnes V.Barnes K.Ridgway S.Saha R.Kent L.Clark T.Wood J.Bolger C.Bassford C.Cowton A.Lewandowski J.Zhao X.Humphreys S.Dowling S.Richardson N.Burtenshaw A.Stevenson C.Wilcock D.Nalapko Y.subject
MaleINTENSIVE-CARE-UNITOrgan Dysfunction Scoresmedicine.medical_treatmentPrognosis.MedizinDECISION-MAKINGLogistic regressionlaw.inventionolder adult0302 clinical medicinePHYSICIANSInterquartile rangelaw80 and overMedicine and Health Sciences030212 general & internal medicineHospital MortalityProspective StudiesProspective cohort studyolder adultsAged 80 and overpredictddc:617Respiration[SDV.MHEP.GEG]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Geriatry and gerontologyBrief ReportPrognosisIntensive care unitADMISSION3. Good healthEuropeHospitalizationIntensive Care UnitsBrier scoreOlder adultsArtificialFemaleprognosimedicine.medical_specialtycritical care; model; older adults; predict; prognosis; Aged 80 and over; Europe; Female; Hospital Mortality; Hospitalization; Humans; Intensive Care Units; Male; Prospective Studies; Respiration Artificial; Organ Dysfunction Scores; Prognosis03 medical and health sciencesIntensive caremedicineJournal ArticleHumansILL ELDERLY-PATIENTSRenal replacement therapyAgedmodelReceiver operating characteristicbusiness.industry030208 emergency & critical care medicineRespiration Artificialcritical careEmergency medicine[SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologieBrief ReportsprognosisGeriatrics and Gerontologybusinessdescription
OBJECTIVES To develop a scoring system model that predicts mortality within 30 days of admission of patients older than 80 years admitted to intensive care units (ICUs). DESIGN Prospective cohort study. SETTING A total of 306 ICUs from 24 European countries. PARTICIPANTS Older adults admitted to European ICUs (N = 3730; median age = 84 years [interquartile range = 81‐87 y]; 51.8% male). MEASUREMENTS Overall, 24 variables available during ICU admission were included as potential predictive variables. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors of 30‐day mortality. Model sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were evaluated with receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS The 30‐day‐mortality was 1562 (41.9%). In multivariable analysis, these variables were selected as independent predictors of mortality: age, sex, ICU admission diagnosis, Clinical Frailty Scale, Sequential Organ Failure Score, invasive mechanical ventilation, and renal replacement therapy. The discrimination, accuracy, and calibration of the model were good: the area under the curve for a score of 10 or higher was .80, and the Brier score was .18. At a cut point of 10 or higher (75% of all patients), the model predicts 30‐day mortality in 91.1% of all patients who die. CONCLUSION A predictive model of cumulative events predicts 30‐day mortality in patients older than 80 years admitted to ICUs. Future studies should include other potential predictor variables including functional status, presence of advance care plans, and assessment of each patient's decision‐making capacity. © 2019 The Authors. Journal of the American Geriatrics Society published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The American Geriatrics Society. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution‐NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.
| year | journal | country | edition | language |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-06-01 |