A time series study on the effects of heat on mortality and evaluation of heterogeneity into European and Eastern-Southern Mediterranean cities: results of EU CIRCE project

6533b82cfe1ef96bd128f559

RESEARCH PRODUCT

A time series study on the effects of heat on mortality and evaluation of heterogeneity into European and Eastern-Southern Mediterranean cities: results of EU CIRCE project

Francesca De' Donato Tanja Wolf Xavier Basagaña Manuela De Sario Klea Katsouyanni Antonis Analitis Michela Leone Bettina Menne Paola Michelozzi Zeynep Dörtbudak Elsa Casimiro Daniela D’ippoliti Chava Peretz Carmen Iñiguez Afif Ben Salah

subject

Mediterranean climate Male MESH: Urban Health Hot Temperature Time Factors Climate Health Toxicology and Mutagenesis Vulnerability 010501 environmental sciences 01 natural sciences Mediterranean Basin MESH: Regression Analysis MESH: Cause of Death 0302 clinical medicine Africa Northern MESH: Child Cause of Death 11. Sustainability 030212 general & internal medicine Mediterranean region Socioeconomics Child MESH: Aged [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment Middle East MESH: Middle Aged MESH: Infant Newborn 1. No poverty Age Factors Middle Aged MESH: Climate MESH: Middle East/epidemiology MESH: Infant 3. Good health Geography MESH: Young Adult Child Preschool 8. Economic growth Regression Analysis Female Seasons Adult medicine.medical_specialty Adolescent Climate change Heat Stress Disorders MESH: Mediterranean Region/epidemiology 03 medical and health sciences Middle East Young Adult medicine MESH: Cities Humans Cities Mortality MESH: Heat Stress Disorders/mortality*0105 earth and related environmental sciences MESH: Hot Temperature/adverse effects Aged Estimation MESH: Adolescent MESH: Age Factors MESH: Heat Stress Disorders/etiology MESH: Humans Public health Research MESH: Child Preschool MESH: Time Factors Infant Newborn Urban Health Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health MESH: Africa Northern/epidemiology Infant MESH: Adult MESH: Male Apparent temperature 13. Climate action Hot temperature; Mortality; Mediterranean region; Heterogeneity; Age groups; Public Health; TIME series analysis; Older people; Public health; Unemployment statistics; Climatic changes [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie MESH: Mortality/trends*Heterogeneity Age groups MESH: Female MESH: Seasons Medicine; Geriatrics

description

Background: The Mediterranean region is particularly vulnerable to the effect of summer temperature. Within the CIRCE project this time-series study aims to quantify for the first time the effect of summer temperature in Eastern-Southern Mediterranean cities and compared it with European cities around the Mediterranean basin, evaluating city characteristics that explain between-city heterogeneity. Methods: The city-specific effect of maximum apparent temperature (Tappmax) was assessed by Generalized Estimation Equations, assuming a linear threshold model. Then, city-specific estimates were included in a random effect meta-regression analysis to investigate the effect modification by several city characteristics. Results: Heterogeneity in the temperature-mortality relationship was observed among cities. Thresholds recorded higher values in the warmest cities of Tunis (35.5 degrees C) and Tel-Aviv (32.8 degrees C) while the effect of Tappmax above threshold was greater in the European cities. In Eastern-Southern Mediterranean cities a higher effect was observed among younger age groups (0-14 in Tunis and 15-64 in Tel-Aviv and Istanbul) in contrast with the European cities where the elderly population was more vulnerable. Climate conditions explained most of the observed heterogeneity and among socio-demographic and economic characteristics only health expenditure and unemployment rate were identified as effect modifiers. Conclusions: The high vulnerability observed in the young populations in Eastern-Southern Mediterranean cities represent a major public health problem. Considering the large political and economic changes occurring in this region as well future temperature increase due to climate change, it is important to strengthen research and public health efforts in these Mediterranean countries.

year	journal	country	edition	language
2013-07-01

10.1186/1476-069x-12-55 http://cdm21054.contentdm.oclc.org/cdm/ref/collection/IR/id/1111