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RESEARCH PRODUCT
A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe : an expert consultation
Viola PriesemannPeter KlimekEva S. SchernhammerEwa SzczurekPirta HotulainenPhilippe BeutelsRudi BallingSotirios TsiodrasNicola LowEnrico GlaabCarlos MartinsSebastian B. MohrArmin NassehiBarbara PrainsackPeter WilleitEva GrillMartyn PickersgillSteven Van GuchtMirjam KretzschmarThomas CzypionkaSarah CuschieriAnthony StainesAndré Calero ValdezClaudia HansonTyll KrügerHelena MachadoJoacim RocklövMartin MckeeJenny KrutzinnaMatjaž PercElena PetelosEmil IftekharUga DumpisSimon Bauersubject
Delphi methodPsychological intervention: Multidisciplinaire généralités & autres [F99] [Sciences du vivant]0302 clinical medicineCOVID-19 (Disease) -- Risk factors -- EuropePandemic030212 general & internal medicine: Multidisciplinary general & others [D99] [Human health sciences]0303 health sciencesEurope policy adviceHealth PolicyPublic Health Global Health Social Medicine and EpidemiologyOther Quantitative Biology (q-bio.OT)Quantitative Biology - Other Quantitative Biology3. Good healthCoronavirus infections -- EuropeVaccinationEuropegroup forecastOncologyCOVID-19 (Disease) -- Vaccination -- EuropePublic aspects of medicineRA1-1270: Immunology & infectious disease [D12] [Human health sciences]Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): Multidisciplinaire généralités & autres [D99] [Sciences de la santé humaine]610: Multidisciplinary general & others [F99] [Life sciences]variants of concernexpert survey03 medical and health sciencesViewpointSocial distancing (Public health) and education -- EuropeIntensive careDevelopment economicsInternal MedicineCOVID-19 (Disease) -- Europeddc:610non-pharmaceutical interventions030304 developmental biologypolicy adviceSARS-CoV-2Population mixingCOVID-19 Pandemic 2020- -- EuropeCOVID-19Expert consultationDelphi studyFolkhälsovetenskap global hälsa socialmedicin och epidemiologi: Immunologie & maladie infectieuse [D12] [Sciences de la santé humaine]FOS: Biological sciencesBusinessHuman medicinedescription
How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence COVID-19 in Europe. The future challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of variants of concern, and public responses to nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people are still unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and population mixing is expected to increase over the summer. Therefore, policies that lift restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This challenge remains despite the reduced opportunities for transmission due to vaccination progress and reduced indoor mixing in the summer. In autumn 2021, increased indoor activity might accelerate the spread again, but a necessary reintroduction of NPIs might be too slow. The incidence may strongly rise again, possibly filling intensive care units, if vaccination levels are not high enough. A moderate, adaptive level of NPIs will thus remain necessary. These epidemiological aspects are put into perspective with the economic, social, and health-related consequences and thereby provide a holistic perspective on the future of COVID-19.
| year | journal | country | edition | language |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-07-30 |