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RESEARCH PRODUCT
A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries
George ZimbaFrancisco Fenias MacuculeToivo S. MaboteSomiéalo AzoteAluwani GugaSimon Henry ConnellJean Baptiste Fankam FankamKondwani C. C. MwaleKetevi AssamaganKossi AmouzouviAzwinndini MurongaAnn NjeriLaza RakotondravohitraFenosoa FanomezanaEbode F. OnyieDephney MathebulaCyrille E. Haliyasubject
2019-20 coronavirus outbreakMultidisciplinaryCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)SARS-CoV-2Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)media_common.quotation_subjectScienceSIDARTHEQPopulations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)COVID-19BiologyArticleBasic reproduction numberFOS: Biological sciencesPandemicReproductionQuantitative Biology - Populations and EvolutionBasic reproduction numbermedia_commonDemographydescription
We studied the COVID-19 pandemic evolution in selected African countries. For each country considered, we modeled simultaneously the data of the active, recovered and death cases. In this study, we used a year of data since the first cases were reported. We estimated the time-dependent basic reproduction numbers, $R_0$, and the fractions of infected but unaffected populations, to offer insights into containment and vaccine strategies in African countries. We found that $R_0\leq 4$ at the start of the pandemic but has since fallen to $R_0 \sim 1$. The unaffected fractions of the populations studied vary between $1-10$\% of the recovered cases.
| year | journal | country | edition | language |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-11-01 | Scientific African |