6533b860fe1ef96bd12c3035

RESEARCH PRODUCT

Predicting mobile apps spread: An epidemiological random network modeling approach

Rafael-jacinto VillanuevaJuan Alegre-sanahujaJuan Carlos CortésFrancisco-josé Santonja

subject

Behavior over timeRandom graph050103 clinical psychologyComputer scienceeducation05 social sciencesMobile appsMechanical engineeringEpidemiological random network050109 social psychologyComputer Graphics and Computer-Aided DesignData scienceRandom network modelTerm (time)UploadModeling and Simulationmental disordersKey (cryptography)0501 psychology and cognitive sciencesMobile app spreadPredictionMATEMATICA APLICADASoftwareNetwork model

description

[EN] The mobile applications business is a really big market, growing constantly. In app marketing, a key issue is to predict future app installations. The influence of the peers seems to be very relevant when downloading apps. Therefore, the study of the evolution of mobile apps spread may be approached using a proper network model that considers the influence of peers. Influence of peers and other social contagions have been successfully described using models of epidemiological type. Hence, in this paper we propose an epidemiological random network model with realistic parameters to predict the evolution of downloads of apps. With this model, we are able to predict the behavior of an app in the market in the short term looking at its evolution in the early days of its launch. The numerical results provided by the proposed network are compared with data from real apps. This comparison shows that predictions improve as the model is fed back. Marketing researchers and strategy business managers can benefit from the proposed model since it can be helpful to predict app behavior over the time anticipating the spread of an app

yearjournalcountryeditionlanguage
2017-06-07SIMULATION
https://doi.org/10.1177/0037549717712600