6533b870fe1ef96bd12cf059

RESEARCH PRODUCT

Mathematical modelling of social obesity epidemic in the region of Valencia, Spain

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In this article, we analyse the incidence of excess weight in 24- to 65-year-old residents in the region of Valencia, Spain, and predict its behaviour in the coming years. In addition, we present some possible strategies to prevent the spread of the obesity epidemic. We use classical logistic regression analysis to find out that a sedentary lifestyle and unhealthy nutritional habits are the most important causes of obesity in the 24- to 65-year-old population in Valencia. We propose a new mathematical model of epidemiological type to predict the incidence of excess weight in this population in the coming years. Based on the mathematical model sensitivity analysis, some possible general strategies to reverse the increasing trend of obesity are suggested. The obese population in the region of Valencia is increasing (11.6% in 2000 and 13.48% in 2005) and the future is worrisome. Our model predicts that 15.52% of the population in Valencia will be obese by 2011. Model sensitivity analysis suggests that obesit...