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RESEARCH PRODUCT

Trying to control migration between zones in the world

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It is a fact that migration is a worrying problem in some world areas. Literature shows many studies about it. Nevertheless, no sound solutions have been proposed. Assuming that the key implied factors are development and demography, we suggest in this research, as a first step, to state a stochastic and dynamic demographic model neither considering sexes nor ages, but including the necessary and adequate economic, education and health variables. This model will be able to optimize, by means of a genetic algorithm, the amount and proportion of the main development indicators in different areas of the world along time, in order to reach the desired values of the population present in each area. The considered world areas are: Arab States, East Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East & North Africa, and North America. The input variables to be optimized (control variables) are those referred to health, education and economy (Life expectancy at birth, Adult Literacy Rate and Gross Enrolment ratio for primary to tertiary and Gross Domestic Product Income (GDP) per capita), per world areas. Demography rates such as Net Migration Rate, Birth Rate and Death Rate are calculated from these input variables. The necessary data to calibrate and validate the model come from the World Data Bank and the UNDP reports from 1990–2001 period and 2002–2012 period respectively. This paper presents optimized results for a specific zone in a specific period: Europe and Central Asia in the 2013–2030 period. They show that migration could be optimized in the future if the Human Development Index (HDI) increases in the eight considered zones, especially during the years 2013 to 2022. And the most significant increment has to be done in Arab States, Latin America and the Caribbean, Middle East & North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa.