0000000000064497
AUTHOR
María T. Sanz
SIMULATING DEMOGRAPHY AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT DYNAMICS
[EN] A deterministic/stochastic model in which the demographic and the well-being subsystems of a country are involved and related is presented as a way to approach human development. The demographic subsystem is a side-by-side, single-gender, age-structured population dynamic model. The well-being subsystem states the dynamics of the United Nations Hybrid Human Development Index. The model has been validated in the case of Spain and Belgium. Some simulations have been performed with the model for the case of Spain in the 2009-2020 period to determine strategies and scenarios that could increase the life expectancy at birth per gender. Copyright © 2014 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.
Design and Validation of an Expanded Disability Status Scale Model in Multiple Sclerosis.
<b><i>Introduction:</i></b> We aimed to develop and validate an Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) model through clinical, optical coherence tomography (OCT), and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) measures. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> Sixty-four multiple sclerosis (MS) patients underwent peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer and segmented macular layers evaluation through OCT (Spectralis, Heidelberg Engineering). Brain parenchymal fraction was quantified through Freesurfer, while cervical spinal cord (SC) volume was assessed manually guided by Spinal Cord Toolbox software analysis. EDSS, neuroradiological, and OCT assessment were carried out …
A stochastic dynamic model to evaluate the influence of economy and well-being on unemployment control
[EN] This paper presents a stochastic dynamic mathematical model to study the evolution of the unemployment rate and other relevant related variables in a country. This model is composed by three basic interrelated subsystems: demographic, economic and wellbeing ones. A key aspect of this model is that it considers three UN well-being variables simultaneously: Human Development Index, Gender Empowerment Index and Gender Differentiation Index. These variables involve key concepts for human development, as Health, Education, Economy and Female Labor. With this model, the most outstanding variables found in the literature in relation with unemployment control can be used to design strategies a…
Using System Dynamics to Model Student Performance in an Intelligent Tutoring System
One basic adaptation function of an Intelligent Tutoring System (ITS) consists of selecting the most appropriate next task to be offered to the learner. This decision can be based on estimates, such as the expected performance of the student, or the probability that the student successfully solves each particular task. However, the computation of these values is intrinsically difficult, as they may depend on other complex latent variables that also need to be estimated from observable quantities, e.g. the current student's ability. In this work, we have used system dynamics to model learning and predict the student's performance in a given exercise, in an existing ITS that was developed to …
Including an environmental quality index in a demographic model
This paper presents a new well-being index which allows environmental quality to be measured through CO2 emissions, renewable energies and nuclear power. Its formula derives from a geometric mean used to calculate which things in the human production system warm the planet and which do not. This index has been introduced into a gender-defined stochastic population dynamic mathematical model which measures well-being in a country. The main variables in this model are rates of death, birth, emigration and immigration, as well as three UN indices: Human Development Index, Gender Development Index and Gender Empowerment Index. This model has been extended with variables that allow an environmen…
A Methodology for Modeling and Optimizing Social Systems
[EN] A system methodology for modeling and optimizing social systems is presented. It allows constructing dynamical models formulated stochastically, i.e., their results are given by confidence intervals. The models provide optimal intervention ways to reach the stated objectives. Two optimization methods are used: (1) to test strategies and scenarios and (2) to optimize with a genetic algorithm. The application case presented is a small nonformal education Spanish business. First, the model is validated in the 2008-2012 period, and subsequently, the optimal way to obtain a maximum profit in the 2013-2025 period is obtained using the two methods.
Las fracciones, habilidades de alumnos de 15 a 16 años
La indagación descrita es parte de un proyecto de investigación cuyo propósito es identificar relaciones existentes entre habilidades que los alumnos, de entre 15 y 18 años de edad, manifiestan al usar fracciones y su desempeño al resolver problemas descriptivos que involucran procesos iterativos de cálculo de parte del complemento de parte. Los resultados expuestos provienen del análisis de las respuestas de 198 alumnos a un cuestionario sobre conocimientos previos de fracciones. El test consta de siete tareas para evaluar tres tipos de habilidades: Representación gráfica, Cálculo con fracciones y Resolución de problemas. El cuestionario se diseñó considerando: a) componentes de estudios p…
A stochastic dynamical social model involving a human happiness index
[EN] This paper presents a new human happiness index built through five dimensions: development, freedom, solidarity, justice and peace. These five dimensions are evaluated through quantitative variables obtained from the Human Development Reports, World Data Bank and Eurostat. The new happiness index has been built following the guidelines set by the Human Development Reports of the UN for the construction of quality indices, and it has been compared on a set of 13 EU countries with the Overall Life Satisfaction Index, which is used by the UN. Moreover, the new index has been included in a dynamic mathematical model through the demographic rates to study the evolution of the population. Th…
A Mathematical Approach to the Body-Mind Problem from a System Personality Theory (A Systems Approach to the Body-Mind Problem)
The dynamics of both the General Factor of Personality and the personality biological indicators, as a consequence of a stimulus, can be described with a short-term dynamic model (the response model). The invariance of the response model at both levels of description (psychological and biological) leads to deduce the bridge model with which psychological and biological levels of description can be related. The bridge model is the key tool to deal with the body–mind problem. An application case is presented setting up an experimental design with two subjects. The General Factor of Personality, c-fos and glutamate dynamics are evaluated as a consequence of a methylphenidate dose intake. The r…
A Stochastic Model for Population and Well-Being Dynamics
This article presents a stochastic dynamic model to study the demographic evolution per sexes and the corresponding well-being of a general human population. The main model variables are population per sexes and well-being. The considered well-being variable is the Gender-Related Development Index (GDI), a United Nations index. The model's objectives are to improve future well-being and to reach a stable population in a country. The application case consists of adapting, validating, and using the model for Spain in the 2000–2006 period. Some instance strategies have been tested in different scenarios for the 2006–2015 period to meet these objectives by calculating the reliability of the res…
Predicting human performance in interactive tasks by using dynamic models
The selection of an appropriate sequence of activities is an essential task to keep student motivation and foster engagement. Usually, decisions in this respect are made by taking into account the difficulty of the activities, in relation to the student's level of competence. In this paper, we present a dynamic model that aims to predict the average performance of a group of students at solving a given series of maths problems. The system takes into account both student- and task-related features. This model was built and validated by using the data gathered in an experimental session that involved 64 participants solving a sequence of 26 arithmetic problems. The data collected from the fir…
Dynamics of the general factor of personality: A predictor mathematical tool of alcohol misuse
[EN] There are few studies developed about the general factor of personality (GFP) dynamics. This paper uses a dynamical mathematical model, the response model, to predict the short-term effects of a dose of alcohol on GFP and reports the results of an alcohol intake experiment. The GFP dynamical mechanism of change is based on the unique trait personality theory (UTPT). This theory proposes the existence of GFP, which occupies the apex of the hierarchy of personality. An experiment with 37 volunteers was performed. All the participants completed The five-adjective scale of the general factor of personality (GFP-FAS) in trait-format (GFP-T) and state-format (GFP-S) before alcohol consumptio…
The use of energies as a tool to stabilise climate and world population
It is a fact that population and average global temperature on Earth grow fast. Literature shows that many studies have been performed about it. Nevertheless, forecasts are not good. Assuming that the key implied factors are the consumption of energy (from the different types of energy sources) and the birth rate, we suggest in this research, as a first step, to state a stochastic demographic model, including the necessary and adequate economic, environmental and wellbeing variables. This model will be able to optimise, by means of a genetic algorithm, the amount and proportion of the main source types energy consumption as well as the average birth rate in the world, in order to maintain t…
Magnetic resonance imaging and optical coherence tomography correlations in multiple sclerosis beyond anatomical landmarks.
Abstract Objective To investigate multiple sclerosis (MS) optical coherence tomography (OCT) cross-sectional correlations with central nervous system (CNS) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Material and methods Peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (pRNFL), ganglion cell layer (GCL), inner plexiform layer (IPL), inner (INL) and outer nuclear layer (ONL) of 54 relapsing remitting (RRMS) and 38 progressive (PMS, 9 primary and 29 secondary) patients were measured. With less than 3 months brain parenchymal fraction (BPF), spinal cord (SC), total gray matter (GM) and white matter volumes were calculated. Demographical and clinical data was compared according to the history of optic neuritis (H…
The body-mind problem from a personality relativity theory approach: (Relativity of personality)
The body-mind problem is here posed fromthe General Factor of Personality Theory and mathematically presented as a relativity theory: 1. A two-level-invariant model; 2. The transformation equation between both levels. On a hand, the investigation of personality dynamicsas a consequenceof a stimulant drug provides a system of two coupled differential equations, which adapts to both biological (body) and psychological (mind)levels ofdescription. On the other hand, a system of two coupled partial differential equations is here deduced as the transformation model between the biological and psychological levels. Both models are presented and validated in this paper. The experimental design to va…
Well-being and demographic dynamics
This paper presents a socio-demographic model defined by sexes and structured by age. The model is a von Foerster-McKendrick model for the dynamics of population by sex and age of a general human population. The fertility and deaths rates are structured by age and they depend on the well-being variable. The well-being variable is defined by UN, HDI-Hybrid. We present the validation of the stochastic formulation model from the case of Spain in the period 2003–2008.
Sense and sensibility: using a model to examine the relationship between public pre-school places and fertility
This paper presents a stochastic dynamic mathematical model, in which a Family Policy Index (XFPI) is included to measure and compare two different models of provision of resources to support families with children from 0 to 3 years old. The main variables in this model are the XFPI, fertility, mortality, emigration and immigration rates. This mathematical model was validated in two different countries, Spain and Norway, during the 2007–2015 period. A sensitivity analysis was applied to simulate the future trend (2016–2030), examining the influence of providing public pre-school services (0 to 3 years) on (XISF). The results obtained show that these services may indeed have an influence on …
Missing Curious Fraction Problems
In this paper we present a study of one of the best-known types of descriptive word fraction problems. These problems have disappeared from today’s textbooks but are hugely important for developing arithmetic thinking. The aim of this paper is to examine the historical solution methods for these problems and discuss the analytical readings suggested by the authors. On the basis of this analysis we have conducted a preliminary study of the performance of 35 Spanish students who are highly trained in mathematics. Our results show that these students have a preference for algebraic reasoning, are reluctant to use arithmetic methods, and have reading comprehension difficulties that are reflecte…
Trying to control migration between zones in the world
It is a fact that migration is a worrying problem in some world areas. Literature shows many studies about it. Nevertheless, no sound solutions have been proposed. Assuming that the key implied factors are development and demography, we suggest in this research, as a first step, to state a stochastic and dynamic demographic model neither considering sexes nor ages, but including the necessary and adequate economic, education and health variables. This model will be able to optimize, by means of a genetic algorithm, the amount and proportion of the main development indicators in different areas of the world along time, in order to reach the desired values of the population present in each ar…