Search results for " Forecasting"
showing 10 items of 163 documents
Global Demand for Paper Products: 2006–2050
2012
Our aim is to formulate and present global demand forecasts for several paper products for the main regions of the world for the period 2005-2050. Our forecasts, while based on standard regression modeling, differ from existing ones in that they are based not only on historical observed consumption patterns and projections of economic growth, but also take into account changes in the demographic constitution of countries and regions, and incorporate the assumption that beyond certain level economic prosperity (here in terms of GDP per capita) does not translate into increased demand for paper products. Our key results are threefold. First, the demand for paperboard and hygiene products will…
Novel Energy Modelling and Forecasting Tools for Smart Energy Networks
2015
A novel Energy Modelling and Forecasting Tool (EMFT) has been adopted for use in the VIM SEN (Virtual Microgrids for Smart Energy Networks) project and this paper gives an insight of the techniques used to provide vital support to the energy market, in particular to energy aggregators. A brief description of one of the test sites where data has been collected for validation of the EMFT will be outlined and some examples shown. The information and predictions will then be used by a decision support system to dynamically adjust energy delivery and consumption, by giving advice to users and operators on actions they can take to obtain a better match between energy supply and demand that increa…
A Short-Term Data Based Water Consumption Prediction Approach
2019
A smart water network consists of a large number of devices that measure a wide range of parameters present in distribution networks in an automatic and continuous way. Among these data, you can find the flow, pressure, or totalizer measurements that, when processed with appropriate algorithms, allow for leakage detection at an early stage. These algorithms are mainly based on water demand forecasting. Different approaches for the prediction of water demand are available in the literature. Although they present successful results at different levels, they have two main drawbacks: the inclusion of several seasonalities is quite cumbersome, and the fitting horizons are not very large. With th…
Sea breeze thunderstorms in the eastern Iberian Peninsula. Neighborhood verification of HIRLAM and HARMONIE precipitation forecasts
2014
In this study we investigated sea breeze thunderstorms with intense convective activity (i.e., heavy rainfall, hail and gusty winds) that occurred over the eastern Iberian Peninsula (Spain) and were missed by the operational HIRLAM model. We used two grid-spacing setups (5.0. km and 2.5. km) of the hydrostatic HIRLAM model, and the non-hydrostatic spectral HARMONIE suite (2.5. km), to simulate isolated convection associated with sea breezes. The overall aim is to estimate the ability of these three experimental setups, in particular the HARMONIE model as the forthcoming operational numerical weather prediction in most European Weather Services, to correctly simulate convective precipitation…
Multi-model simulations of a convective situation in low-mountain terrain in central Europe
2008
The goal of the present study is to investigate the variability of simulated convective precipitation by three convection-resolving models using different set-ups and initial and boundary conditions. The COSMO, MM5 and WRF models have been used to simulate the atmospheric situation on 12 July 2006, when local convection occurred in central Europe under weak synoptic forcing. The focus of this investigation is on the convective precipitation in the northern Black Forest in South-West Germany. The precipitation fields from the nine model simulations differ considerably. Six simulations capture the convective character of the event. However, they differ considerably in the location and timing …
Tourism recovery amid COVID-19: The case of Lombardy, Italy
2021
Travel restrictions and social distancing imposed to curb the spread of the new coronavirus have been strongly hitting tourism since March 2020. Tourism forecasting literature addressed the effects of shocks in contexts characterized by a predictable route to recovery. COVID-19 is without precedents. In this article, monthly overnight stays for the period January 2010 to December 2020 are used to estimate the impact of the pandemic in Lombardy, Italy’s most affected region. A model-based approach is implemented, and the number of overnight stays up to December 2023 is forecasted. Four models are compared. Estimation results from an augmented SARIMA model suggest that, provided a new lockdo…
A fuzzy decision support tool for demand forecasting
2007
In this paper we present a decision support forecasting system to work with univariate time series based on the generalized exponential smoothing (Holt-Winters) approach. It is conceived as an integrated tool which has been implemented in Visual Basic. For improving the accuracy of the automatic forecasting it uses an optimization-based scheme which unifies the stages of estimation of the parameters and selects the best method using a fuzzy multicriteria approach. The elements of the set of local minima of the non-linear programming problems allow us to build the membership functions of the conflicting objectives. A set of real data is analyzed to show the performance of our forecasting too…
Impact of Noah-LSM Parameterizations on WRF Mesoscale Simulations: Case Study of Prevailing Summer Atmospheric Conditions over a Typical Semi-Arid Re…
2021
The current study evaluates the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to forecast surface energy fluxes over a region in Eastern Spain. Focusing on the sensitivity of the model to Land Surface Model (LSM) parameterizations, we compare the simulations provided by the original Noah LSM and the Noah LSM with multiple physics options (Noah-MP). Furthermore, we assess the WRF sensitivity to different Noah-MP physics schemes, namely the calculation of canopy stomatal resistance (OPT_CRS), the soil moisture factor for stomatal resistance (OPT_BTR), and the surface layer drag coefficient (OPT_SFC). It has been found that these physics options strongly affect the energy partiti…
Co-citation, bibliographic coupling and leading authors, institutions and countries in the 50 years of Technological Forecasting and Social Change
2021
[EN] Technological Forecasting and Social Change (TF&SC) is a leading international journal that publishes major advances related to technological forecasting and future studies. The journal was launched in 1969 and in 2019 celebrated its 50th anniversary. To celebrate 50 years of outstanding contributions, this study presents a bibliometric analysis of TF&SC publications and patterns of citations within TF&SC in terms of authors, institutions and countries. The analysis relies on the Web of Science Core Collection database for bibliographic content and Visualization of Similarities viewer software for mapping of bibliometric data. Our analysis identifies leading authors, universities and c…
Global warming and tourism: chronicles of apocalypse?
2012
PurposeGlobal warming is a huge challenge faced by the mankind in the twenty‐first century and beyond. The paradox of ecology lies in the pervasive attitude of lay people who overtly condemn pollution but do not alter their individual practices. Unfortunately, the scientific community has still not reached unanimous conclusions about the causes or impacts of global warming. To close this gap, the present paper aims to stimulate discussion in two main senses: the relationship between industry and global warming; and the role of tourism in the coming decades.Design/methodology/approachBased on reading and criticism of many works, this paper provides a conceptual framework for readers to under…