Search results for " Inference"

MCMC methods to approximate conditional predictive distributions

2006

Sampling from conditional distributions is a problem often encountered in statistics when inferences are based on conditional distributions which are not of closed-form. Several Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms to simulate from them are proposed. Potential problems are pointed out and some suitable modifications are suggested. Approximations based on conditioning sets are also explored. The issues are illustrated within a specific statistical tool for Bayesian model checking, and compared in an example. An example in frequentist conditional testing is also given.

Criteria for Bayesian model choice with application to variable selection

2012

In objective Bayesian model selection, no single criterion has emerged as dominant in defining objective prior distributions. Indeed, many criteria have been separately proposed and utilized to propose differing prior choices. We first formalize the most general and compelling of the various criteria that have been suggested, together with a new criterion. We then illustrate the potential of these criteria in determining objective model selection priors by considering their application to the problem of variable selection in normal linear models. This results in a new model selection objective prior with a number of compelling properties.

Exponential and bayesian conjugate families: Review and extensions

1997

The notion of a conjugate family of distributions plays a very important role in the Bayesian approach to parametric inference. One of the main features of such a family is that it is closed under sampling, but a conjugate family often provides prior distributions which are tractable in various other respects. This paper is concerned with the properties of conjugate families for exponential family models. Special attention is given to the class of natural exponential families having a quadratic variance function, for which the theory is particularly fruitful. Several classes of conjugate families have been considered in the literature and here we describe some of their most interesting feat…

Optimal Reporting of Predictions

1989

Abstract Consider a problem in which you and a group of other experts must report your individual predictive distributions for an observable random variable X to some decision maker. Suppose that the report of each expert is assigned a prior weight by the decision maker and that these weights are then updated based on the observed value of X. In this situation you will try to maximize your updated, or posterior, weight by appropriately choosing the distribution that you report, rather than necessarily simply reporting your honest predictive distribution. We study optimal reporting strategies under various conditions regarding your knowledge and beliefs about X and the reports of the other e…

PValues for Composite Null Models

2000

Abstract The problem of investigating compatibility of an assumed model with the data is investigated in the situation when the assumed model has unknown parameters. The most frequently used measures of compatibility are p values, based on statistics T for which large values are deemed to indicate incompatibility of the data and the model. When the null model has unknown parameters, p values are not uniquely defined. The proposals for computing a p value in such a situation include the plug-in and similar p values on the frequentist side, and the predictive and posterior predictive p values on the Bayesian side. We propose two alternatives, the conditional predictive p value and the partial…

Affine Invariant Multivariate Sign and Rank Tests and Corresponding Estimates: a Review

1999

The paper reviews recent contributions to the statistical inference methods, tests and estimates, based on the generalized median of Oja. Multivariate analogues of sign and rank concepts, affine invariant one-sample and two-sample sign tests and rank tests, affine equivariant median and Hodges–Lehmann-type estimates are reviewed and discussed. Some comparisons are made to other generalizations. The theory is illustrated by two examples.

A Software Tool For Sparse Estimation Of A General Class Of High-dimensional GLMs

2022

Generalized linear models are the workhorse of many inferential problems. Also in the modern era with high-dimensional settings, such models have been proven to be effective exploratory tools. Most attention has been paid to Gaussian, binomial and Poisson settings, which have efficient computational implementations and where either the dispersion parameter is largely irrelevant or absent. However, general GLMs have dispersion parameters φ that affect the value of the log- likelihood. This in turn, affects the value of various information criteria such as AIC and BIC, and has a considerable impact on the computation and selection of the optimal model.The R-package dglars is one of the standa…

Frequentist and Bayesian approaches for a joint model for prostate cancer risk and longitudinal prostate-specific antigen data

2015

The paper describes the use of frequentist and Bayesian shared-parameter joint models of longitudinal measurements of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and the risk of prostate cancer (PCa). The motivating dataset corresponds to the screening arm of the Spanish branch of the European Randomized Screening for Prostate Cancer study. The results show that PSA is highly associated with the risk of being diagnosed with PCa and that there is an age-varying effect of PSA on PCa risk. Both the frequentist and Bayesian paradigms produced very close parameter estimates and subsequent 95% confidence and credibility intervals. Dynamic estimations of disease-free probabilities obtained using Bayesian infe…

Statistical inference as a decision problem: the choice of sample size

1997

Analysis of the renal transplant waiting list in the País Valencià (Spain).

2005

In this paper we analyse the renal transplant waiting list of the Pais Valencia in Spain, using Queueing theory. The customers of this queue are patients with end-stage renal failure waiting for a kidney transplant. We set up a simplified model to represent the flow of the customers through the system, and perform Bayesian inference to estimate parameters in the model. Finally, we consider several scenarios by tuning the estimations achieved and computationally simulate the behaviour of the queue under each one. The results indicate that the system could reach equilibrium at some point in the future and the model forecasts a slow decrease in the size of the waiting list in the short and mid…