Search results for " Probability"
showing 10 items of 2176 documents
Pretest-Posttest-Posttest Multilevel IRT Modeling of Competence Growth of Students in Higher Education in Germany
2016
Longitudinal research in higher education faces several challenges. Appropriate methods of analyzing competence growth of students are needed to deal with those challenges and thereby obtain valid results. In this article, a pretest-posttest-posttest multivariate multilevel IRT model for repeated measures is introduced which is designed to address educational research questions according to a German research project. In this model, dependencies between repeated observations of the same students are considered not, as usual, by clustering observations within participants but rather by clustering observations within semesters. Estimation of the model is conducted within a Bayesian framework. …
Embedding Quantum into Classical: Contextualization vs Conditionalization
2014
We compare two approaches to embedding joint distributions of random variables recorded under different conditions (such as spins of entangled particles for different settings) into the framework of classical, Kolmogorovian probability theory. In the contextualization approach each random variable is "automatically" labeled by all conditions under which it is recorded, and the random variables across a set of mutually exclusive conditions are probabilistically coupled (imposed a joint distribution upon). Analysis of all possible probabilistic couplings for a given set of random variables allows one to characterize various relations between their separate distributions (such as Bell-type ine…
Influence Functions and Efficiencies of k-Step Hettmansperger–Randles Estimators for Multivariate Location and Regression
2016
In Hettmansperger and Randles (Biometrika 89:851–860, 2002) spatial sign vectors were used to derive simultaneous estimators of multivariate location and shape. Oja (Multivariate nonparametric methods with R. Springer, New York, 2010) proposed a similar approach for the multivariate linear regression case. These estimators are highly robust and have under general assumptions a joint limiting multinormal distribution. The estimates are easy to compute using fixed-point algorithms. There are however no exact proofs for the convergence of these algorithms. The existence and uniqueness of the solutions also still remain unproven although we believe that they hold under general conditions. To ci…
Modelling systemic price cojumps with Hawkes factor models
2015
Instabilities in the price dynamics of a large number of financial assets are a clear sign of systemic events. By investigating a set of 20 high cap stocks traded at the Italian Stock Exchange, we find that there is a large number of high frequency cojumps. We show that the dynamics of these jumps is described neither by a multivariate Poisson nor by a multivariate Hawkes model. We introduce a Hawkes one factor model which is able to capture simultaneously the time clustering of jumps and the high synchronization of jumps across assets.
Testing Equality of Multiple Power Spectral Density Matrices
2018
This paper studies the existence of optimal invariant detectors for determining whether P multivariate processes have the same power spectral density. This problem finds application in multiple fields, including physical layer security and cognitive radio. For Gaussian observations, we prove that the optimal invariant detector, i.e., the uniformly most powerful invariant test, does not exist. Additionally, we consider the challenging case of close hypotheses, where we study the existence of the locally most powerful invariant test (LMPIT). The LMPIT is obtained in the closed form only for univariate signals. In the multivariate case, it is shown that the LMPIT does not exist. However, the c…
Second-order interaction in a Trivariate Generalized Gamma Distribution
2004
The concept of second- (and higher-) order interaction is widely used in categorical data analysis, where it proves useful for explaining the interdependence among three (or more) variables. Its use seems to be less common for continuous multivariate distributions, most likely owing to the predominant role of the Multivariate Normal distribution, for which any interaction involving more than two variables is necessarily zero. In this paper we explore the usefulness of a second-order interaction measure for studying the interdependence among three continuous random variables, by applying it to a trivariate Generalized Gamma distribution proposed by Bologna(2000).
Forecasting correlated time series with exponential smoothing models
2011
Abstract This paper presents the Bayesian analysis of a general multivariate exponential smoothing model that allows us to forecast time series jointly, subject to correlated random disturbances. The general multivariate model, which can be formulated as a seemingly unrelated regression model, includes the previously studied homogeneous multivariate Holt-Winters’ model as a special case when all of the univariate series share a common structure. MCMC simulation techniques are required in order to approach the non-analytically tractable posterior distribution of the model parameters. The predictive distribution is then estimated using Monte Carlo integration. A Bayesian model selection crite…
Locally optimal invariant detector for testing equality of two power spectral densities
2018
This work addresses the problem of determining whether two multivariate random time series have the same power spectral density (PSD), which has applications, for instance, in physical-layer security and cognitive radio. Remarkably, existing detectors for this problem do not usually provide any kind of optimality. Thus, we study here the existence under the Gaussian assumption of optimal invariant detectors for this problem, proving that the uniformly most powerful invariant test (UMPIT) does not exist. Thus, focusing on close hypotheses, we show that the locally most powerful invariant test (LMPIT) only exists for univariate time series. In the multivariate case, we prove that the LMPIT do…
The evolution of COVID-19: A discontinuous approach.
2021
The evolution of the COVID-19 disease is monitored on the basis of the daily number of infected patients and the daily number of deaths provided from national health agencies. The variation of such parameters with time parallels that described for the growth/decay of historic transportation systems revealing the appearance of discontinuities. The evolution of the pandemic disease is represented in terms of two nominally equivalent formulations: a logistic model with sharp changes in its rate parameters, and in topological terms resulting in 2nd order phase transitions in the infected patients/time space.
Role of noise in a market model with stochastic volatility
2006
We study a generalization of the Heston model, which consists of two coupled stochastic differential equations, one for the stock price and the other one for the volatility. We consider a cubic nonlinearity in the first equation and a correlation between the two Wiener processes, which model the two white noise sources. This model can be useful to describe the market dynamics characterized by different regimes corresponding to normal and extreme days. We analyze the effect of the noise on the statistical properties of the escape time with reference to the noise enhanced stability (NES) phenomenon, that is the noise induced enhancement of the lifetime of a metastable state. We observe NES ef…