Search results for " default"
showing 10 items of 36 documents
Pricing Sovereign Contingent Convertible Debt
2016
We develop a pricing model for sovereign contingent convertible bonds (S-CoCo) with payment standstills triggered by a sovereign's credit default swap CDS spread. One innovation is the modeling of CDS spread regime switching which is prevalent during crises. Regime switching is modeled as a hidden Markov process and is integrated with a stochastic process of spread levels to obtain S-CoCo prices through simulation. The paper goes a step further and uses the pricing model in a Longstaff-Schwartz. American option pricing framework to compute state contingent S-CoCo prices at some risk horizon, thus facilitating risk management. Dual trigger pricing is also discussed using the idiosyncratic CD…
Two Approaches to Examine the Impact of Different Credit Default Indicators on Real Estate Loans
2019
Abstract Financing of real estates was a trigger of the largest financial crisis after the “Great Depression” from the early thirties in the last century. One of the main causes of this 2007 crisis was poor risk management in real estate financing. The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of different classes of indicators on credit default rates of real estate loans. Two research approaches should confirm a model that proves how strong the relationship is between different predictor variables such as interest rates, macroeconomic and individual indicators on the response variable of credit defaults. The first approach focuses on conducting descriptive and inferential experimental res…
Credit Risk Research: Review and Agenda
2018
This article provides a comprehensive review of scholarly research on credit risk measurement during the last 57 years applying bibliometric citation analysis and elaborates an agenda for future research. The bibliography is compiled using the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web of Science (WOS) database and includes all articles with citations over the period 1960–2016. Specifically, the review is carried out using 1695 articles across 72 countries published in 442 journals by 2928 authors. The findings suggest that credit risk research is multifaceted and can be classified into six streams: (1) defaultable security pricing, (2) default intensity modeling, (3) comparative analys…
Discussion of “Optimal Debt Service: Straight vs. Convertible Debt”
2006
Corporate bond default plays a signifi cant role in today's business environment. According to Moody's, a leading provider of credit ratings, corporate bond issuers that it rated as of January 1, 2004, defaulted on a total of US $16 billion in 2004. Credit default not only affects the equity investors of a firm, but also the debt holders, who may loose part of their credit. Default can also have dramatic consequences for a firm's future operations. Therefore, the decision of if and when to default is important for both the firm and its stakeholders. There is a substantial body of literature on the determination of optimal default points as a strategic decision by the owners of a firm. Accor…
Is There a Credit Risk Anomaly in FX Markets?
2015
This paper explores whether a link between sovereign credit ratings and currency returns exists. Perhaps contrary to expectations, it finds that currencies of countries with higher credit risk tend to generate lower returns than those with a lower credit risk. The credit risk spread cannot be explained by standard risk factors.
Robust Recovery Risk Hedging: Only the First Moment Matters
2009
Credit derivatives are subject to at least two sources of risk: the default time and the recovery payment. This paper examines the impact of modeling the recovery payment on hedging strategies in a reduced-form model as well as a structural model. We show that all hedging approaches based on a quadratic criterion do only depend on the expected recovery payment at default and not the whole shape of the recovery payment distribution if the underlying hedging instrument (say, a defaultable zero coupon bond) jumps to or reaches a pre-specified value when the credit event occurs. This justifies assuming a \emph{certain} recovery rate conditional on default time and interest rate level. Hence, th…
Portfolio diversification in the sovereign credit swap markets
2018
We develop models for portfolio diversification in the sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) markets and show that, despite literature findings that sovereign CDS spreads are affected by global factors, there is sufficient idiosyncratic risk to be diversified. However, we identify regime switching in the times series of CDS spreads and spread returns, and the optimal diversified strategies can be regime dependent. The developed models trade off the CVaR risk measure against expected return, consistently with the statistical properties of spreads. We consider three investment strategies suited for different CDS market participants: for investors with long positions, speculators that hold unco…
Is There a Connection between Sovereign CDS Spreads and the Stock Market? Evidence for European and US Returns and Volatilities
2020
This study complements the current literature, providing a thorough investigation of the lead&ndash
Pricing sovereign contingent convertible debt
2018
We develop a pricing model for Sovereign Contingent Convertible bonds (S-CoCo) with payment standstills triggered by a sovereign's Credit Default Swap (CDS) spread. We model CDS spread regime switching, which is prevalent during crises, as a hidden Markov process, coupled with a mean-reverting stochastic process of spread levels under fixed regimes, in order to obtain S-CoCo prices through simulation. The paper uses the pricing model in a Longstaff-Schwartz American option pricing framework to compute future state contingent S-CoCo prices for risk management. Dual trigger pricing is also discussed using the idiosyncratic CDS spread for the sovereign debt together with a broad market index. …