Search results for " forecast"
showing 10 items of 220 documents
Forecasting energy output of a solar power plant in curtailment condition based on LSTM using P/GHI coefficient and validation in training process, a…
2022
This study presents how to improve the short-term forecast of photovoltaic plant's output power by applying the Long Short-Term Memory, LSTM, neural networks for industrial-scale solar power plants in Vietnam under possible curtailment operation. Since the actual output power does not correspond to the available power, new techniques (Global Horizontal Irradiance - GHI interval division, P/GHI factor addition (P - Power)) have been designed and applied for processing errors and missing data. The prediction model (LSTM network, structure of hidden layers, number of nodes) has been developed by the authors in a previous work. In this new version of the model, the training technique is improve…
The Impact Of Demand And Inventory Management Policies On Bullwhip Effect In Production Networks
2004
The bullwhip effect is a phenomenon consisting in variance amplification of orders as they move up a supply chain. The immediate bullwhip effect consequences are the increase of inventory costs, poor custoiner services and inefficient utilization of resources due to the difficulties of production planning activities in highly variable conditions. There are many factors that cause the bullwhip effect, but if is particularly due to demand forecasting and inventory management policies. In this paper the impact on bullwhip effect of different policies to manage demand and inventories has been evaluated through discrete event simulation, using the ARENA (R) simulation package.
INTO THE HOTEL REVENUE MANAGEMENT. “History & Forecast”
2010
During uncertain times a deeper attention on strategies is highly recommended in order to minimize the loss and maintain, or gain in certain cases, market share (Vergara C., 2004). In this direction, hotels are asked to invest more in Revenue Management intelligence, not only toward the actual practices based on Room Revenue, but also taking into consideration the other incoming departments and in particular Food & Beverage. This article aims to clearing up the current state of the Revenue Management theory and practice, starting from its origin, crossing the five pillars, or the current policies and ending with a brief hint on the future of the entire hotel industry, which here we may call…
Seasonal Forecasting methods: an empirical analysis at sectoral and territorial levels.
2011
Small Wind Turbines: Specification, Design, and Economic Evaluation
2016
In this work, we consider various aspects of small wind turbines' (SWTs) design and operation. First, an extensive literature study is presented by considering SWTs specification, market statistics, the smart grid, and the prosumer concepts as well as the most important parameters affecting the efficiency of wind turbines. Then, both the literature review and series of coupled numerical simulations investigating impact of the chosen design solutions on small wind turbine operation are performed. It allowed objective evaluation of different design approaches, which in turn enabled the systematic identification of actual limitations as well as the opportunities for specific design solutions o…
How Will We React to the Discovery of Extraterrestrial Life?
2018
How will humanity react to the discovery of extraterrestrial life? Speculation on this topic abounds, but empirical research is practically non-existent. We report the results of three empirical studies assessing psychological reactions to the discovery of extraterrestrial life using the Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC) text analysis software. We examined language use in media coverage of past discovery announcements of this nature, with a focus on extraterrestrial microbial life (Pilot Study). A large online sample (N = 501) was asked to write about their own and humanity’s reaction to a hypothetical announcement of such a discovery (Study 1), and an independent, large online sampl…
Encuestas a pie de urna en España. ¿Error muestral o sesgo de no respuesta?
2016
Countless examples of misleading forecasts on behalf of both pre-election and exit polls can be found all over the world. Non-representative samples due to differential nonresponse have been claimed as being the main reason for inaccurate exit-poll projections. In real inference problems, it is seldom possible to compare estimates and true values. Electoral forecasts are an exception. Comparisons between estimates and final outcomes can be carried out once votes have been tallied. In this paper, we examine the raw data collected in seven exit polls conducted in Spain and test the likelihood that the data collected in each sampled voting location can be considered as a random sample of actua…
Europe's offshore winds assessed with synthetic aperture radar, ASCAT and WRF
2020
Europe's offshore wind resource mapping is part of the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA) international consortium effort. This study presents the results of analysis of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) ocean wind maps based on Envisat and Sentinel-1 with a brief description of the wind retrieval process and Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) ocean wind maps. The wind statistics at 10 and 100 m above mean sea level (a.m.s.l.) height using an extrapolation procedure involving simulated long-term stability over oceans are presented for both SAR and ASCAT. Furthermore, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) offshore wind atlas of NEWA is presented. This has 3 km grid spacing with data …
Europe’s offshore winds assessed from SAR, ASCAT and WRF
2019
Abstract. Europe’s offshore wind resource mapping is part of the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA) international consortium effort. This study presents the results of analysis of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) ocean wind maps based on Envisat and Sentinel-1 with a brief description of the wind retrieval process and Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) ocean wind maps. The wind statistics at 10m and 100m height using an extrapolation procedure involving simulated long-term stability over oceans is presented for both SAR and ASCAT. Furthermore, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) offshore wind atlas of NEWA is presented. This has 3 km grid resolution with data every 30 minutes during 30 years f…
L'influence des facteurs institutionnels sur la politique d'information financière des entreprises. Une analyse à la lumière du cas français
2009
International audience; L'influence des facteurs institutionnels sur la politique d'information financière des entreprises. Une analyse à la lumière du cas français.