Search results for " forecasting"

Improving the prediction of air pollution peak episodes generated by urban transport networks

2016

Abstract This paper illustrates the early results of ongoing research developing novel methods to analyse and simulate the relationship between trasport-related air pollutant concentrations and easily accessible explanatory variables. The final scope is to integrate the new models in traditional traffic management support systems for a sustainable mobility of road vehicles in urban areas. This first stage concerns the relationship between the hourly mean concentration of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and explanatory factors reflecting the NO2 mean level one hour back, along with traffic and weather conditions. Particular attention is given to the prediction of pollution peaks, defined as exceedanc…

Approximate Bayesian Computation for Forecasting in Hydrological models

2018

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a statistical tool for handling parameter inference in a range of challenging statistical problems, mostly characterized by an intractable likelihood function. In this paper, we focus on the application of ABC to hydrological models, not as a tool for parametric inference, but as a mechanism for generating probabilistic forecasts. This mechanism is referred as Approximate Bayesian Forecasting (ABF). The abcd water balance model is applied to a case study on Aipe river basin in Columbia to demonstrate the applicability of ABF. The predictivity of the ABF is compared with the predictivity of the MCMC algorithm. The results show that the ABF method as …

The future of aortic surgery in Europe

2017

At least every ten years, each specialty should reflect upon its past, its present and its future, in order to be able to reconfirm the direction in which it is headed, to adopt suggestions from inside and outside and, consequently, to improve. As such, the aim of this manuscript is to provide the interested reader with an overview of how aortic surgery and (perhaps more accurately) aortic medicine has evolved in Europe, and its present standing; also to provide a glimpse into the future, trying to disseminate the thoughts of a group of people actively involved in the development of aortic medicine in Europe, namely the Vascular Domain of the European Association of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery …

Automatic Generation of Land Surface Emissivity Maps

2011

The remote sensing measurement of the land surface temperature (LST) from satellites provides an overview of this magnitude on a continuous and regular basis. The study of its evolution in time and space is a critical factor in many scientific fields such as weather forecasting, detection of forest fires, climate change, etc. The main problem of making this measurement from satellite data is the need to correct the effects of the atmosphere and the land surface emissivity (LSE). Nowadays, these corrections are usually made using a split-window algorithm, which has an explicit dependence on land surface emissivity. Therefore, the aim of our work was to define an enhanced vegetation cover met…

Forecasts on the development of hydrogen refuelling infrastructures in Portugal

2021

In Portugal, the transition to new forms of mobility has begun in recent years, but there are still obstacles to overcome. Currently, hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) are the most widespread and accepted by the community and that is probably due to range anxiety, having in fact the possibility of double charging (both through the thermal engine and the electric battery). Furthermore, it must be considered that in addition to electric vehicles, another valid alternative to mobility in the near future is the hydrogen vehicles one. These appear to be even more sustainable from the point of view of air emissions, but on the other hand the costs for the production of hydrogen are still too high. Then, th…

Comparing Recurrent Neural Networks using Principal Component Analysis for Electrical Load Predictions

2021

Electrical demand forecasting is essential for power generation capacity planning and integrating environment-friendly energy sources. In addition, load predictions will help in developing demand-side management in coordination with renewable power generation. Meteorological conditions influence urban area load pattern; therefore, it is vital to include weather parameters for load predictions. Machine Learning algorithms can effectively be used for electrical load predictions considering impact of external parameters. This paper explores and compares the basic Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN); Simple Recurrent Neural Networks (Vanilla RNN), Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), and Long Short-Term Me…

Relative evaluation of regression tools for urban area electrical energy demand forecasting

2019

Abstract Load forecasting is the most fundamental application in Smart-Grid, which provides essential input to Demand Response, Topology Optimization and Abnormally Detection, facilitating the integration of intermittent clean energy sources. In this work, several regression tools are analyzed using larger datasets for urban area electrical load forecasting. The regression tools which are used are Random Forest Regressor, k-Nearest Neighbour Regressor and Linear Regressor. This work explores the use of regression tool for regional electric load forecasting by correlating lower distinctive categorical level (season, day of the week) and weather parameters. The regression analysis has been do…

Ten important articles on noninvasive ventilation in critically ill patients and insights for the future: A report of expert opinions

2017

Background Noninvasive ventilation is used worldwide in many settings. Its effectiveness has been proven for common clinical conditions in critical care such as cardiogenic pulmonary edema and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations. Since the first pioneering studies of noninvasive ventilation in critical care in the late 1980s, thousands of studies and articles have been published on this topic. Interestingly, some aspects remain controversial (e.g. its use in de-novo hypoxemic respiratory failure, role of sedation, self-induced lung injury). Moreover, the role of NIV has recently been questioned and reconsidered in light of the recent reports of new techniques such as high-fl…

E-MIP: A new mechanism for dynamic coalition formation in a robot team

2004

When mobile robots colonies move in dynamic, not predictable and time variable environments, the problem now is on how can they achieve distributed solving strategies for solving complicate and difficult tasks. The development of a new robotic architecture for the coordination of robot colonies in dangerous and dynamic environments is outlined. The name of this new architecture is Economic Metaphor of Italian Politics (E-MIP), because it takes inspiration from the political organizations of Italian democratic governments, where the leader isn't only one robot but a government of three robots constitutes it while a second group of robots, the Robot Citizens, are the executor of the mission. …

2014

Sales forecasting is an essential task in retailing. In particular, consumer-oriented markets such as fashion and electronics face uncertain demands, short life cycles and a lack of historical sales data which strengthen the challenges of producing accurate forecasts. This survey paper presents state-of-the-art methods in the sales forecasting research with a focus on fashion and new product forecasting. This study also reviews different strategies to the predictive value of user-generated content and search queries.