Search results for " forecasting"

Real-time weather forecasting in the Western Mediterranean Basin: An application of the RAMS model

2014

Abstract A regional forecasting system based on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) is being run at the CEAM Foundation. The model is started twice daily with a forecast range of 72 h. For the period June 2007 to August 2010 the verification of the model has been done using a series of automatic meteorological stations from the CEAM network and located within the Valencia Region (Western Mediterranean Basin). Air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed and direction of the output of the model have been compared with observations. For these variables, an operational verification has been performed by computing different statistical scores for 18 weather stations. This verif…

Modeling impacts of super cool roofs on air temperature at pedestrian level in mesoscale and microscale climate models

2021

Abstract Passive daytime radiative cooling is gaining increasing relevance as recent studies report that newly developed materials with very high reflectivity and emissivity could be able to effectively reduce urban heat stress, when applied as roofing material (super cool roofs). A recent microscale sensitivity study with ENVI-met modeled the impact of super cool roofs with maximum air temperature reductions of around 0.85 K at pedestrian level for an idealized model area. To verify these findings in real urban structures featuring complex building morphologies and varying meteorological conditions, we conducted climate simulations for two contrasting cities: New York City, NY, and Phoenix…

Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction

2020

Weather and climate variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales can have enormous social, economic, and environmental impacts, making skillful predictions on these time scales a valuable tool for decision-makers. As such, there is a growing interest in the scientific, operational, and applications communities in developing forecasts to improve our foreknowledge of extreme events. On subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales, these include high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, floods, droughts, and heat and cold waves. On seasonal to decadal (S2D) time scales, while the focus broadly remains similar (e.g., on precipitation, surface and upper-…

MACC regional multi-model ensemble simulations of birch pollen dispersion in Europe

2015

Abstract. This paper presents the first ensemble modelling experiment in relation to birch pollen in Europe. The seven-model European ensemble of MACC-ENS, tested in trial simulations over the flowering season of 2010, was run through the flowering season of 2013. The simulations have been compared with observations in 11 countries, all members of the European Aeroallergen Network, for both individual models and the ensemble mean and median. It is shown that the models successfully reproduced the timing of the very late season of 2013, generally within a couple of days from the observed start of the season. The end of the season was generally predicted later than observed, by 5 days or more…

A statistical model for predicting the inter-annual variability of birch pollen abundance in Northern and North-Eastern Europe

2018

The paper suggests a methodology for predicting next-year seasonal pollen index (SPI, a sum of daily-mean pollen concentrations) over large regions and demonstrates its performance for birch in Northern and North-Eastern Europe. A statistical model is constructed using meteorological, geophysical and biological characteristics of the previous year). A cluster analysis of multi-annual data of European Aeroallergen Network (EAN) revealed several large regions in Europe, where the observed SPI exhibits similar patterns of the multi-annual variability. We built the model for the northern cluster of stations, which covers Finland, Sweden, Baltic States, part of Belarus, and, probably, Russia and…

Surface to boundary layer coupling in the urban area of Lisbon comparing different urban canopy models in WRF

2019

Abstract This work presents a sensitivity study to evaluate different Urban Canopy Models (UCM) existing within the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) in the urban area of Lisbon, Portugal. Several hind-cast simulations were carried out for a selected period in July 2010, in which synoptic conditions favoured urban heat island formation. We aim to gain knowledge on the feedback of modified urban canopy representation in WRF on local scale meteorology and the boundary-layer dynamics over the urban area, by comparing a single layer urban canopy model (SLUCM) and a more sophisticated multi-layer building effect parametrisation (BEP). We find significant differences in the characteris…

Preliminary Analysis on Correlations between Spatial Distribution of Chlorophyll-a and Experimental Data of Biomass in the Strait of Sicily

2010

This study, using both remotely sensed and measured in situ data, is directed to the analysis of the correlations between the chlorophyll-a concentration and the biomass of sardines and anchovies acoustically evaluated in the Strait of Sicily. This work, inter alia, shows the usefulness of remote observation of seas in determining possible relationships between fish stocks and some oceanographic parameters (Sea Surface Temperature, Chlorophyll-a, Zooplankton).

2017

Abstract. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are hazardous pollutants, with increasing emissions in pace with economic development in East Asia, but their distribution and fate in the atmosphere are not yet well understood. We extended the regional atmospheric chemistry model WRF-Chem (Weather Research Forecast model with Chemistry module) to comprehensively study the atmospheric distribution and the fate of low-concentration, slowly degrading semivolatile compounds. The WRF-Chem-PAH model reflects the state-of-the-art understanding of current PAHs studies with several new or updated features. It was applied for PAHs covering a wide range of volatility and hydrophobicity, i.e. phenanth…

Stochastic models for wind speed forecasting

2011

Abstract This paper is concerned with the problem of developing a general class of stochastic models for hourly average wind speed time series. The proposed approach has been applied to the time series recorded during 4 years in two sites of Sicily, a region of Italy, and it has attained valuable results in terms both of modelling and forecasting. Moreover, the 24 h predictions obtained employing only 1-month time series are quite similar to those provided by a feed-forward artificial neural network trained on 2 years data.

ADME Prediction with KNIME: Development and Validation of a Publicly Available Workflow for the Prediction of Human Oral Bioavailability.

2020

In silico prediction of human oral bioavailability is a relevant tool for the selection of potential drug candidates and for the rejection of those molecules with less probability of success during the early stages of drug discovery and development. However, the high variability and complexity of oral bioavailability and the limited experimental data in the public domain have mainly restricted the development of reliable in silico models to predict this property from the chemical structure. In this study we present a KNIME automated workflow to predict human oral bioavailability of new drug and drug-like molecules based on five machine learning approaches combined into an ensemble model. Th…