Search results for " forecasting"

Wave Energy Assessment around the Aegadian Islands (Sicily)

2019

This paper presents the estimation of the wave energy potential around the Aegadian islands (Italy), carried out on the basis of high resolution wave hindcast. This reanalysis was developed employing Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) and WAVEWATCH III ® models for the modelling of the atmosphere and the waves, respectively. Wave climate has been determined using the above-mentioned 32-year dataset covering the years from 1979 to 2010. To improve the information about wave characteristics regarding spatial details, i.e., increasing wave model resolution, especially in the nearshore region around the islands, a SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) wave propagation model was used. Results obtai…

An improved perspective in the representation of soil moisture: potential added value of SMOS disaggregated 1 km resolution product

2018

Abstract. This study uses the synergy of multiresolution soil moisture (SM) satellite estimates from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission, a dense network of ground-based SM measurements, and a Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) model, SURFEX (Externalized Surface) – module ISBA (Interactions between Soil-Biosphere-Atmosphere), to examine, i) the comparison and suitability of different operational SMOS SM products to provide realistic information on the water content of the soil as well as the added value of the newly released SMOS Level 4 3.0 all weather disaggregated ~ 1 km SM (SMOS_L4 3.0 ), and ii) its potential impact for improving uncertainty associated to SM initia…

Real Options: an Application to RMS Investment Evaluation

2007

Do different models induce changes in mortality indicators? That is a key question for extending the Lee-Carter model

2021

[EN] The parametric model introduced by Lee and Carter in 1992 for modeling mortality rates in the USA was a seminal development in forecasting life expectancies and has been widely used since then. Different extensions of this model, using different hypotheses about the data, constraints on the parameters, and appropriate methods have led to improvements in the model's fit to historical data and the model's forecasting of the future. This paper's main objective is to evaluate if differences between models are reflected in different mortality indicators' forecasts. To this end, nine sets of indicator predictions were generated by crossing three models and three block-bootstrap samples with …

Effects of initialization on response of a fully-distributed hydrologic model

2008

Summary Knowledge of initial conditions is very important to correctly model the basin response at the storm event scale. Of particular interest is the influence of topography and soil type on the principal hydrologic variables and runoff generation mechanisms as a function of antecedent wetness conditions. This study addresses the influence of initial states on the short-term hydrologic response and characterizes the effects of topography and soils on the dissipation of the influence of the initialization conditions. Two case studies are considered: a synthetic two-dimensional planar hillslope with various assumed slope magnitudes and soil types; and a real basin (∼800 km2) with actual lan…

Optimizing the level of service quality of a bike-sharing system

2016

Public bike-sharing programs have been deployed in hundreds of cities worldwide, improving mobility in a socially equitable and environmentally sustainable way. However, the quality of the service is drastically affected by imbalances in the distribution of bicycles among stations. We address this problem in two stages. First, we estimate the unsatisfied demand (lack of free lockers or lack of bicycles) at each station for a given time period in the future and for each possible number of bicycles at the beginning of the period. In a second stage, we use these estimates to guide our redistribution algorithms. Computational results using real data from the bike-sharing system in Palma de Mall…

Does the interaction between the accounting method choice and disclosure affect financial analysts’ information environment? The case of joint ventur…

2017

IAS 31 allowed firms to choose between proportionate consolidation and the equity method to record joint ventures in the consolidated accounts of the venturer. Moreover, this election implied a decision about including information in the primary financial statements or in the notes. This paper investigates if financial analysts perceive accounting information differently depending on the method chosen conditioned to the disclosure of the required information in the notes. We analysed a sample of Spanish firms during 2005–2010. We not only considered earnings forecasts, but also examined target prices and stock recommendations. Furthemore, we look at how this accounting choice affects analys…

Tension in the data environment: How organisations can meet the challenge

2022

Big Data is becoming ubiquitous - widely applied across organisations, industry sectors and society. However, the opportunities and risks it presents are not yet fully understood. In this paper we identify and explore the tensions that Big Data can create at multiple levels, focusing on the need for organisations to meet the challenges that can arise. We draw on insights from twelve papers published in the Special Issue of Technological Forecasting & Social Change entitled “Tension in the Data Environment: Can Organisations Meet the Challenge?” in order to build a ‘Multi-Layer Tensions Model’ that highlights key pressures and challenges in the BD environment. We find evidence of tensions of…

Simulation of surface energy fluxes and meteorological variables using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS): Evaluating the impact of land…

2018

Atmospheric mesoscale numerical models are commonly used not only for research and air quality studies, but also for other related applications, such as short-term weather forecasting for atmospheric, hydrological, agricultural and ecological modelling. A key element to produce faithful simulations is the proper representation of the soil parameters used in the initialization of the corresponding mesoscale numerical model. The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) is used in the current study. The model code has been updated in order to permit the model to be initialized using a heterogeneous soil moisture and temperature distribution derived from land surface models. Particularly, RA…

TRAIL in cancer therapy: present and future challenges.

2007

International audience; Since its identification in 1995, TNF-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL) has sparked growing interest in oncology due to its reported ability to selectively trigger cancer cell death. In contrast to other members of the TNF superfamily, TRAIL administration in vivo is safe. The relative absence of toxic side effects of this naturally occurring cytokine, in addition to its antitumoural properties, has led to its preclinical evaluation. However, despite intensive investigations, little is known in regards to the mechanisms underlying TRAIL selectivity or efficiency. An appropriate understanding of its physiological relevance, and of the mechanisms controlling ca…