Search results for " weather"
showing 10 items of 148 documents
Processes governing the amplification of ensemble spread in a medium-range forecast with large forecast uncertainty
2019
This study provides a process-based perspective on the amplification of forecast uncertainty and forecast errors in ensemble forecasts. A case from the North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment that exhibits large forecast uncertainty is analysed. Two aspects of the ensemble behaviour are considered: (a) the mean divergence of the ensemble members, indicating the general amplification of forecast uncertainty, and (b) the divergence of the best and worst members, indicating extremes in possible error-growth scenarios. To analyse the amplification of forecast uncertainty, a tendency equation for the ensemble variance of potential vorticity (PV) is derived and partitioned into …
Real-time weather forecasting in the Western Mediterranean Basin: An application of the RAMS model
2014
Abstract A regional forecasting system based on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) is being run at the CEAM Foundation. The model is started twice daily with a forecast range of 72 h. For the period June 2007 to August 2010 the verification of the model has been done using a series of automatic meteorological stations from the CEAM network and located within the Valencia Region (Western Mediterranean Basin). Air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed and direction of the output of the model have been compared with observations. For these variables, an operational verification has been performed by computing different statistical scores for 18 weather stations. This verif…
Sources of water vapour contributing to the Elbe flood in August 2002-A tagging study in a mesoscale model
2009
In this study we investigate the contribution of various moisture sources to the Elbe flood that occurred in Central Europe during August 2002. An 8-day simulation with the mesoscale numerical weather prediction model CHRM, including newly implemented water vapour tracers, has been performed. According to the simulation, rather than drawing moisture from one single dominant source region, water vapour from widely separated moisture sources contributed to the extreme precipitation in the most affected area, notably at distinct, subsequent periods of time, and each in significant amounts. These moisture sources include the Atlantic and Mediterranean ocean areas inside the model domain, evapot…
Examining the effect of adverse weather on road transportation using weather and traffic sensors.
2018
Adverse weather related to reduced visibility caused by fog and rain can seriously affect the mobility and safety of drivers. It is meaningful to develop effective intelligent transportation system (ITS) strategies to mitigate the negative effects of these different types of adverse weather related to reduced visibility by investigating the effect of rain and fog on traffic parameters. A number of previous researches focused on analyzing the effect of adverse weather related to reduced visibility by using simulated traffic and weather data. There are few researchers that addressed the impact of adverse weather instances using real-time data. Moreover, this paper conducts comprehensive inves…
A solar storm observed from the Sun to Venus using the STEREO, Venus Express, and MESSENGER spacecraft
2009
The suite of SECCHI optical imaging instruments on the STEREO-A spacecraft is used to track a solar storm, consisting of several coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and other coronal loops, as it propagates from the Sun into the heliosphere during May 2007. The 3-D propagation path of the largest interplanetary CME (ICME) is determined from the observations made by the SECCHI Heliospheric Imager (HI) on STEREO-A (HI-1/2A). Two parts of the CME are tracked through the SECCHI images, a bright loop and a V-shaped feature located at the rear of the event. We show that these two structures could be the result of line-of-sight integration of the light scattered by electrons located on a single flux rop…
Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction
2020
Weather and climate variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales can have enormous social, economic, and environmental impacts, making skillful predictions on these time scales a valuable tool for decision-makers. As such, there is a growing interest in the scientific, operational, and applications communities in developing forecasts to improve our foreknowledge of extreme events. On subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales, these include high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, floods, droughts, and heat and cold waves. On seasonal to decadal (S2D) time scales, while the focus broadly remains similar (e.g., on precipitation, surface and upper-…
Numerical analysis of ionosphere disturbances and Schumann mode splitting in the Earth-ionosphere cavity
2008
[1] The variability of ionosphere properties plays an important role in the Schumann resonances (SR), amplitudes, frequencies, and Q factor. Therefore, as atmosphere ionization is related to solar activity, SR could be devised as a source of indirect parameters that locally from the surface of the Earth could provide space weather information. A proper understanding of this link to SR parameters can be obtained through finite difference time domain (FDTD) simulations, specifically with the numerically obtained modes and frequencies that relate frequency shifts to the day-night asymmetry and polar inhomogeneities. Day-Night asymmetry is observed to have a minor influence in SR; however, larg…
Breeding success of a colony of Boat-billed Herons Cochlearius cochlearius (Ciconiiformes: Ardeidae) in pasturelands of Costa Rica
2014
The breeding success of a double-brooding colony of Boat-billed Herons Cochlearius cochlearius was studied in pasturelands of Costa Rica. Mean clutch size in the first clutches (2.9 eggs/nest) was higher than in second and repeat clutches (2.3 eggs/nest). Breeding success was similar in the first attempt and second attempts(20.7 % and 21.7 %, respectively). In both attempts earlier nests enjoyed a higher breeding success. Starvation of the youngest chicks within the nest and destruction of nests by bad weather conditions were the main factors related to nestling death. No effects of human activity on the reproduction of the breeding colony were observed. Rev. Biol. Trop. 54 (4): 1131-1134. …
Automated agent-based system for weather information
2009
Road accidents are well correlated with bad weather conditions. In traffic management, several strategies have been considered in order to reduce this kind of accidents. Weather problems can cause difficult situations for the traffic management decision-makers. They need to analyze and absorb a large quantity of information in order to solve some problems due to bad weather. An automated agent-based system is a good solution to help decision-makers in the management of weather information to road users in relation to traffic conditions.In this paper, a distributed system based in autonomous agents and rules for road weather information has been proposed. Also the detection procedure is expl…
The role of hydrology on enhanced weathering for carbon sequestration I. Modeling rock-dissolution reactions coupled to plant, soil moisture, and car…
2021
Abstract Enhanced Weathering (EW) resulting from soil amendment with highly reactive silicate minerals is regarded as one of the most effective techniques for carbon sequestration. While in laboratory conditions silicate minerals dissolution rates are well characterized, in field conditions the rate of the dissolution reaction is more difficult to predict, not least because it interacts with soil, plant, and hydrologic processes. Here we present a dynamic mass balance model connecting biogeochemical and ecohydrological dynamics to shed light on these intertwined processes involved in EW. We focus on the silicate mineral olivine, for its faster laboratory dissolution rate, and pay particular…