Search results for "65"

showing 10 items of 1111 documents

Statistics of nonlinear stochastic dynamical systems under Lévy noises by a convolution quadrature approach

2010

This paper describes a novel numerical approach to find the statistics of the non-stationary response of scalar non-linear systems excited by L\'evy white noises. The proposed numerical procedure relies on the introduction of an integral transform of Wiener-Hopf type into the equation governing the characteristic function. Once this equation is rewritten as partial integro-differential equation, it is then solved by applying the method of convolution quadrature originally proposed by Lubich, here extended to deal with this particular integral transform. The proposed approach is relevant for two reasons: 1) Statistics of systems with several different drift terms can be handled in an efficie…

Statistics and Probability65R10 65D32 60H15 65C30PACS: 02.50.FzPartial differential equationDynamical systems theoryGeneral Physics and AstronomyStatistical and Nonlinear Physics05.45.-aWhite noise02.30.UuIntegral transformDifferential operatorFractional calculusQuadrature (mathematics)Nonlinear systemModeling and SimulationStatisticsSettore ICAR/08 - Scienza Delle CostruzioniCondensed Matter - Statistical MechanicsMathematical PhysicsMathematics
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Time-dependent weak rate of convergence for functions of generalized bounded variation

2016

Let $W$ denote the Brownian motion. For any exponentially bounded Borel function $g$ the function $u$ defined by $u(t,x)= \mathbb{E}[g(x{+}\sigma W_{T-t})]$ is the stochastic solution of the backward heat equation with terminal condition $g$. Let $u^n(t,x)$ denote the corresponding approximation generated by a simple symmetric random walk with time steps $2T/n$ and space steps $\pm \sigma \sqrt{T/n}$ where $\sigma > 0$. For quite irregular terminal conditions $g$ (bounded variation on compact intervals, locally H\"older continuous) the rate of convergence of $u^n(t,x)$ to $u(t,x)$ is considered, and also the behavior of the error $u^n(t,x)-u(t,x)$ as $t$ tends to $T$

Statistics and ProbabilityApproximation using simple random walkweak rate of convergence01 natural sciencesStochastic solution41A25 65M15 (Primary) 35K05 60G50 (Secondary)010104 statistics & probabilityExponential growthFOS: Mathematics0101 mathematicsBrownian motionstokastiset prosessitMathematicsosittaisdifferentiaaliyhtälötApplied MathematicsProbability (math.PR)010102 general mathematicsMathematical analysisfinite difference approximation of the heat equationFunction (mathematics)Rate of convergenceBounded functionBounded variationnumeerinen analyysiapproksimointiStatistics Probability and UncertaintyMathematics - ProbabilityStochastic Analysis and Applications
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Establishing some order amongst exact approximations of MCMCs

2016

Exact approximations of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are a general emerging class of sampling algorithms. One of the main ideas behind exact approximations consists of replacing intractable quantities required to run standard MCMC algorithms, such as the target probability density in a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, with estimators. Perhaps surprisingly, such approximations lead to powerful algorithms which are exact in the sense that they are guaranteed to have correct limiting distributions. In this paper we discover a general framework which allows one to compare, or order, performance measures of two implementations of such algorithms. In particular, we establish an order …

Statistics and ProbabilityFOS: Computer and information sciences65C05Mathematical optimizationMonotonic function01 natural sciencesStatistics - ComputationPseudo-marginal algorithm010104 statistics & probabilitysymbols.namesake60J05martingale couplingalgoritmitFOS: MathematicsApplied mathematics60J220101 mathematicsComputation (stat.CO)Mathematics65C40 (Primary) 60J05 65C05 (Secondary)Martingale couplingMarkov chainmatematiikkapseudo-marginal algorithm010102 general mathematicsProbability (math.PR)EstimatorMarkov chain Monte Carloconvex orderDelta methodMarkov chain Monte CarloOrder conditionsymbolsStatistics Probability and UncertaintyAsymptotic variance60E15Martingale (probability theory)Convex orderMathematics - ProbabilityGibbs sampling
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Can the Adaptive Metropolis Algorithm Collapse Without the Covariance Lower Bound?

2011

The Adaptive Metropolis (AM) algorithm is based on the symmetric random-walk Metropolis algorithm. The proposal distribution has the following time-dependent covariance matrix at step $n+1$ \[ S_n = Cov(X_1,...,X_n) + \epsilon I, \] that is, the sample covariance matrix of the history of the chain plus a (small) constant $\epsilon>0$ multiple of the identity matrix $I$. The lower bound on the eigenvalues of $S_n$ induced by the factor $\epsilon I$ is theoretically convenient, but practically cumbersome, as a good value for the parameter $\epsilon$ may not always be easy to choose. This article considers variants of the AM algorithm that do not explicitly bound the eigenvalues of $S_n$ away …

Statistics and ProbabilityFOS: Computer and information sciencesIdentity matrixMathematics - Statistics TheoryStatistics Theory (math.ST)Upper and lower boundsStatistics - Computation93E3593E15Combinatorics60J27Mathematics::ProbabilityLaw of large numbers65C40 60J27 93E15 93E35stochastic approximationFOS: MathematicsEigenvalues and eigenvectorsComputation (stat.CO)Metropolis algorithmMathematicsProbability (math.PR)Zero (complex analysis)CovariancestabilityUniform continuityBounded function65C40Statistics Probability and Uncertaintyadaptive Markov chain Monte CarloMathematics - Probability
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Importance sampling correction versus standard averages of reversible MCMCs in terms of the asymptotic variance

2017

We establish an ordering criterion for the asymptotic variances of two consistent Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimators: an importance sampling (IS) estimator, based on an approximate reversible chain and subsequent IS weighting, and a standard MCMC estimator, based on an exact reversible chain. Essentially, we relax the criterion of the Peskun type covariance ordering by considering two different invariant probabilities, and obtain, in place of a strict ordering of asymptotic variances, a bound of the asymptotic variance of IS by that of the direct MCMC. Simple examples show that IS can have arbitrarily better or worse asymptotic variance than Metropolis-Hastings and delayed-acceptanc…

Statistics and ProbabilityFOS: Computer and information sciencesdelayed-acceptanceMarkovin ketjut01 natural sciencesStatistics - Computationasymptotic variance010104 statistics & probabilitysymbols.namesake60J22 65C05unbiased estimatorFOS: MathematicsApplied mathematics0101 mathematicsComputation (stat.CO)stokastiset prosessitestimointiMathematicsnumeeriset menetelmätpseudo-marginal algorithmApplied Mathematics010102 general mathematicsProbability (math.PR)EstimatorMarkov chain Monte CarloCovarianceInfimum and supremumWeightingMarkov chain Monte CarloMonte Carlo -menetelmätDelta methodimportance samplingModeling and SimulationBounded functionsymbolsImportance samplingMathematics - Probability
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Large systems of path-repellent Brownian motions in a trap at positive temperature

2006

We study a model of $ N $ mutually repellent Brownian motions under confinement to stay in some bounded region of space. Our model is defined in terms of a transformed path measure under a trap Hamiltonian, which prevents the motions from escaping to infinity, and a pair-interaction Hamiltonian, which imposes a repellency of the $N$ paths. In fact, this interaction is an $N$-dependent regularisation of the Brownian intersection local times, an object which is of independent interest in the theory of stochastic processes. The time horizon (interpreted as the inverse temperature) is kept fixed. We analyse the model for diverging number of Brownian motions in terms of a large deviation princip…

Statistics and ProbabilityFOS: Physical scienceslarge deviationssymbols.namesakeQuantum systemFOS: MathematicsGross-Pitaevskii formula60J6560F10; 60J65; 82B10; 82B26Brownian motionMathematical PhysicsEnergy functionalMathematicsInteracting Brownian motionsStochastic process82B10Mathematical analysisProbability (math.PR)Brownian excursionMathematical Physics (math-ph)Brownian intersection local timessymbolsoccupation measure82B26Large deviations theoryStatistics Probability and UncertaintyHamiltonian (quantum mechanics)Rate functionMathematics - Probability60F10
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Multivariate GARCH estimation via a Bregman-proximal trust-region method

2011

The estimation of multivariate GARCH time series models is a difficult task mainly due to the significant overparameterization exhibited by the problem and usually referred to as the "curse of dimensionality". For example, in the case of the VEC family, the number of parameters involved in the model grows as a polynomial of order four on the dimensionality of the problem. Moreover, these parameters are subjected to convoluted nonlinear constraints necessary to ensure, for instance, the existence of stationary solutions and the positive semidefinite character of the conditional covariance matrices used in the model design. So far, this problem has been addressed in the literature only in low…

Statistics and ProbabilityMathematical optimizationPolynomialComputer scienceDiagonalComputational Finance (q-fin.CP)[QFIN.CP]Quantitative Finance [q-fin]/Computational Finance [q-fin.CP]FOS: Economics and businessQuantitative Finance - Computational FinanceDimension (vector space)0502 economics and business91G70 65C60050207 economicsMathematics050205 econometrics Trust regionStatistical Finance (q-fin.ST)Series (mathematics)Applied Mathematics05 social sciencesConstrained optimizationQuantitative Finance - Statistical Finance[QFIN.ST]Quantitative Finance [q-fin]/Statistical Finance [q-fin.ST]Computational MathematicsNonlinear systemComputational Theory and MathematicsParametrizationCurse of dimensionality
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Uniform ergodicity of the iterated conditional SMC and geometric ergodicity of particle Gibbs samplers

2018

We establish quantitative bounds for rates of convergence and asymptotic variances for iterated conditional sequential Monte Carlo (i-cSMC) Markov chains and associated particle Gibbs samplers. Our main findings are that the essential boundedness of potential functions associated with the i-cSMC algorithm provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the uniform ergodicity of the i-cSMC Markov chain, as well as quantitative bounds on its (uniformly geometric) rate of convergence. Furthermore, we show that the i-cSMC Markov chain cannot even be geometrically ergodic if this essential boundedness does not hold in many applications of interest. Our sufficiency and quantitative bounds rely on…

Statistics and ProbabilityMetropoliswithin-Gibbsgeometric ergodicity01 natural sciencesCombinatorics010104 statistics & probabilitysymbols.namesakeFOS: MathematicsMetropolis-within-GibbsApplied mathematicsErgodic theory0101 mathematicsGibbs measureQAMathematics65C40 (Primary) 60J05 65C05 (Secondary)Particle GibbsMarkov chainGeometric ergodicity010102 general mathematicsErgodicityuniform ergodicityProbability (math.PR)iterated conditional sequential Monte CarloMarkov chain Monte CarloIterated conditional sequential Monte CarloRate of convergencesymbolsUniform ergodicityparticle GibbsParticle filterMathematics - ProbabilityGibbs sampling
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Infinite rate mutually catalytic branching in infinitely many colonies: The longtime behavior

2012

Consider the infinite rate mutually catalytic branching process (IMUB) constructed in [Infinite rate mutually catalytic branching in infinitely many colonies. Construction, characterization and convergence (2008) Preprint] and [Ann. Probab. 38 (2010) 479-497]. For finite initial conditions, we show that only one type survives in the long run if the interaction kernel is recurrent. On the other hand, under a slightly stronger condition than transience, we show that both types can coexist.

Statistics and ProbabilityPure mathematicsProbability (math.PR)coexistenceType (model theory)Characterization (mathematics)Branching (polymer chemistry)Trotter productstochastic differential equationsLévy noisesegregation of typesStochastic differential equationKernel (algebra)Mutually catalytic branching60G1760K35Convergence (routing)FOS: Mathematics60J6560J55PreprintStatistics Probability and UncertaintyMathematics - ProbabilityMathematicsBranching processThe Annals of Probability
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On the stability and ergodicity of adaptive scaling Metropolis algorithms

2011

The stability and ergodicity properties of two adaptive random walk Metropolis algorithms are considered. The both algorithms adjust the scaling of the proposal distribution continuously based on the observed acceptance probability. Unlike the previously proposed forms of the algorithms, the adapted scaling parameter is not constrained within a predefined compact interval. The first algorithm is based on scale adaptation only, while the second one incorporates also covariance adaptation. A strong law of large numbers is shown to hold assuming that the target density is smooth enough and has either compact support or super-exponentially decaying tails.

Statistics and ProbabilityStochastic approximationMathematics - Statistics TheoryStatistics Theory (math.ST)Law of large numbersMultiple-try Metropolis01 natural sciencesStability (probability)010104 statistics & probabilityModelling and Simulation65C40 60J27 93E15 93E35Adaptive Markov chain Monte CarloFOS: Mathematics0101 mathematicsScalingMetropolis algorithmMathematicsta112Applied Mathematics010102 general mathematicsRejection samplingErgodicityProbability (math.PR)ta111CovarianceRandom walkMetropolis–Hastings algorithmModeling and SimulationAlgorithmStabilityMathematics - ProbabilityStochastic Processes and their Applications
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