Search results for "Bayesian probability"
showing 10 items of 217 documents
Assessment of Modelling Structure and Data Availability Influence on Urban Flood Damage Modelling Uncertainty
2014
Abstract In modelling application, different model structures may be equally reliable in terms of calibration ability but they may produce different uncertainty levels; moreover, available data during model calibration may influence the uncertainty linked to the predictions of the same modelling structure. In the present paper, Bayesian model-averaging was applied to several flood damage estimation models in order to identify the best model combination for urban flooding distribution analysis in Palermo city center (Italy). During the analysis, was taken into account the effect of the available data growth on the model uncertainty with respect to the different combination of models outputs.
Feature Selection for Ensembles of Simple Bayesian Classifiers
2002
A popular method for creating an accurate classifier from a set of training data is to train several classifiers, and then to combine their predictions. The ensembles of simple Bayesian classifiers have traditionally not been a focus of research. However, the simple Bayesian classifier has much broader applicability than previously thought. Besides its high classification accuracy, it also has advantages in terms of simplicity, learning speed, classification speed, storage space, and incrementality. One way to generate an ensemble of simple Bayesian classifiers is to use different feature subsets as in the random subspace method. In this paper we present a technique for building ensembles o…
On achieving near-optimal “Anti-Bayesian” Order Statistics-Based classification fora asymmetric exponential distributions
2013
Published version of a Chapter in the book: Computer Analysis of Images and Patterns. Also available from the publisher at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-40261-6_44 This paper considers the use of Order Statistics (OS) in the theory of Pattern Recognition (PR). The pioneering work on using OS for classification was presented in [1] for the Uniform distribution, where it was shown that optimal PR can be achieved in a counter-intuitive manner, diametrically opposed to the Bayesian paradigm, i.e., by comparing the testing sample to a few samples distant from the mean - which is distinct from the optimal Bayesian paradigm. In [2], we showed that the results could be extended for a few sym…
“Anti-Bayesian” parametric pattern classification using order statistics criteria for some members of the exponential family
2013
This paper submits a comprehensive report of the use of order statistics (OS) for parametric pattern recognition (PR) for various distributions within the exponential family. Although the field of parametric PR has been thoroughly studied for over five decades, the use of the OS of the distributions to achieve this has not been reported. The pioneering work on using OS for classification was presented earlier for the uniform distribution and for some members of the exponential family, where it was shown that optimal PR can be achieved in a counter-intuitive manner, diametrically opposed to the Bayesian paradigm, i.e., by comparing the testing sample to a few samples distant from the mean. A…
Urban runoff modelling uncertainty: Comparison among Bayesian and pseudo-Bayesian methods
2009
Urban stormwater quality modelling plays a central role in evaluation of the quality of the receiving water body. However, the complexity of the physical processes that must be simulated and the limited amount of data available for calibration may lead to high uncertainty in the model results. This study was conducted to assess modelling uncertainty associated with catchment surface pollution evaluation. Eight models were compared based on the results of a case study in which there was limited data available for calibration. Uncertainty analysis was then conducted using three different methods: the Bayesian Monte Carlo method, the GLUE pseudo-Bayesian method and the GLUE method revised by m…
ELM Regularized Method for Classification Problems
2016
Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) is a recently proposed algorithm, efficient and fast for learning the parameters of single layer neural structures. One of the main problems of this algorithm is to choose the optimal architecture for a given problem solution. To solve this limitation several solutions have been proposed in the literature, including the regularization of the structure. However, to the best of our knowledge, there are no works where such adjustment is applied to classification problems in the presence of a non-linearity in the output; all published works tackle modelling or regression problems. Our proposal has been applied to a series of standard databases for the evaluation o…
Detection of Internet robots using a Bayesian approach
2015
A large part of Web traffic on e-commerce sites is generated not by human users but by Internet robots: search engine crawlers, shopping bots, hacking bots, etc. In practice, not all robots, especially the malicious ones, disclose their identities to a Web server and thus there is a need to develop methods for their detection and identification. This paper proposes the application of a Bayesian approach to robot detection based on characteristics of user sessions. The method is applied to the Web traffic from a real e-commerce site. Results show that the classification model based on the cluster analysis with the Ward's method and the weighted Euclidean metric is very effective in robot det…
Bayesian chronological analyses consistent with synchronous age of 12,835-12,735 Cal BP for Younger Dryas boundary on four continents
2015
The Younger Dryas impact hypothesis posits that a cosmic impact across much of the Northern Hemisphere deposited the Younger Dryas boundary (YDB) layer, containing peak abundances in a variable assemblage of proxies, including magnetic and glassy impact-related spherules, high-temperature minerals and melt glass, nanodiamonds, carbon spherules, aciniform carbon, platinum, and osmium. Bayesian chronological modeling was applied to 354 dates from 23 stratigraphic sections in 12 countries on four continents to establish a modeled YDB age range for this event of 12,835-12,735 Cal B.P. at 95% probability. This range overlaps that of a peak in extraterrestrial platinum in the Greenland Ice Sheet …
A Bayesian Reconstruction of a Historical Population in Finland, 1647–1850
2020
This article provides a novel method for estimating historical population development. We review the previous literature on historical population time-series estimates and propose a general outline to address the well-known methodological problems. We use a Bayesian hierarchical time-series model that allows us to integrate the parish-level data set and prior population information in a coherent manner. The procedure provides us with model-based posterior intervals for the final population estimates. We demonstrate its applicability by estimating the long-term development of Finlands population from 1647 onward and simultaneously place the country among the very few to have an annual popula…
贝叶斯因子及其在JASP中的实现
2018
Statistical inference plays a critical role in modern scientific research, however, the dominant method for statistical inference in science, null hypothesis significance testing (NHST), is often misunderstood and misused, which leads to unreproducible findings. To address this issue, researchers propose to adopt the Bayes factor as an alternative to NHST. The Bayes factor is a principled Bayesian tool for model selection and hypothesis testing, and can be interpreted as the strength for both the null hypothesis H0 and the alternative hypothesis H1 based on the current data. Compared to NHST, the Bayes factor has the following advantages: it quantifies the evidence that the data provide for…