Search results for "CONSISTENCY"
showing 10 items of 316 documents
Quick counts from non-selected polling stations
2008
Countless examples of misleading forecasts on behalf of both campaign and exit polls affecting, among others, British, French, and Spanish elections could be found. This has seriously damaged their image. Therefore, procedures should be used that minimize errors, especially on election night when errors are more noticeable, in order to maintain people's trust in surveys. This paper proposes a method to obtain quick and early outcome forecasts on the election night. The idea is to partly sample some (whatever) polling stations and use the consistency that polling stations show between elections to predict the final results. Model accuracy is analysed through simulation using seven different …
Comments on “Unobservable Selection and Coefficient Stability
2019
Abstract–: We establish a link between the approaches proposed by Oster (2019) and Pei, Pischke, and Schwandt (2019) which contribute to the development of inferential procedures for causal effects in the challenging and empirically relevant situation where the unknown data-generation process is not included in the set of models considered by the investigator. We use the general misspecification framework recently proposed by De Luca, Magnus, and Peracchi (2018) to analyze and understand the implications of the restrictions imposed by the two approaches.
Weighted weak semivalues
2000
We introduce two new value solutions: weak semivalues and weighted weak semivalues. They are subfamilies of probabilistic values, and they appear by adding the axioms of balanced contributions and weighted balanced contributions respectively. We show that the effect of the introduction of these axioms is the appearance of consistency in the beliefs of players about the game.
A differential-geometric approach to generalized linear models with grouped predictors
2016
We propose an extension of the differential-geometric least angle regression method to perform sparse group inference in a generalized linear model. An efficient algorithm is proposed to compute the solution curve. The proposed group differential-geometric least angle regression method has important properties that distinguish it from the group lasso. First, its solution curve is based on the invariance properties of a generalized linear model. Second, it adds groups of variables based on a group equiangularity condition, which is shown to be related to score statistics. An adaptive version, which includes weights based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence, improves its variable selection fea…
Comments on "Identifying inconsistency in network meta-analysis: Is the net heat plot a reliable method?"
2021
One of the biggest challenges for network meta‐analysis is inconsistency, which occurs when the direct and indirect evidence conflict. Inconsistency causes problems for the estimation and interpretation of treatment effects and treatment contrasts. Krahn and colleagues proposed the net heat approach as a graphical tool for identifying and locating inconsistency within a network of randomized controlled trials. For networks with a treatment loop, the net heat plot displays statistics calculated by temporarily removing each design one at a time, in turn, and assessing the contribution of each remaining design to the inconsistency. The net heat plot takes the form of a matrix which is displaye…
Importance sampling type estimators based on approximate marginal Markov chain Monte Carlo
2020
We consider importance sampling (IS) type weighted estimators based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) targeting an approximate marginal of the target distribution. In the context of Bayesian latent variable models, the MCMC typically operates on the hyperparameters, and the subsequent weighting may be based on IS or sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), but allows for multilevel techniques as well. The IS approach provides a natural alternative to delayed acceptance (DA) pseudo-marginal/particle MCMC, and has many advantages over DA, including a straightforward parallelisation and additional flexibility in MCMC implementation. We detail minimal conditions which ensure strong consistency of the sug…
An extended continuous mapping theorem for outer almost sure weak convergence
2019
International audience; We prove an extended continuous mapping theorem for outer almost sure weak convergence in a metric space, a notion that is used in bootstrap empirical processes theory. Then we make use of those results to establish the consistency of several bootstrap procedures in empirical likelihood theory for functional parameters.
Informative model for national development management
2010
Strategic planning experience shows the major problem of the national planning system - plan- ning documents are faintly intercorrelative (including aspects "from long-term to short-term" and "from general to concrete"), as well non-linked with managing and implementing institutions (public sector func- tions and services) and budgetary appropriation. It creates huge barriers to carry out plans. Structurization of all system's objects in logical units and determination of strict interrelations between them is the pro- posed solution of the problem. Informative model of planning system have to be developed as depository of logical units and their interlinkage. It becomes possible to manage i…
How can perceived consistency in marketing communications influence customer-brand relationship outcomes?
2020
Abstract This paper examines the impact of perceived consistency in marketing communications on customer–brand relationship outcomes. The perception of consistent message and image through different marketing communication tools is one of the basic principles of the integrated marketing communications (IMC) approach. Although literature suggests that IMC might have an influence on customer–brand relationship outcomes, empirical evidence that supports this assumption is still weak and inconclusive. Three main brand relationship outcomes are established for the purpose of the study, i.e. trust, commitment, and loyalty. The relationships between perceived communication consistency and brand ou…
Some consistency issues in multi-criteria decision making
2017
The complexity of decision-making problems included under the multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) paradigm has favored the proliferation of many schools of thought and varied methodologies. It has not yet been possible to prove the supremacy of any of these approaches. Moreover, in some cases it is difficult to combine the theoretical validity of the approximations with their practical appropriateness. It seems that rigor and applicability are two opposing concepts, something that should not be so. It is our responsibility to bridge the gap. To reduce the gap between theory and practice and use effective methodological approaches, it is necessary to combine the rigor and objectivity of tr…