Search results for "Certainty"

A heuristic, iterative algorithm for change-point detection in abrupt change models

2017

Change-point detection in abrupt change models is a very challenging research topic in many fields of both methodological and applied Statistics. Due to strong irregularities, discontinuity and non-smootheness, likelihood based procedures are awkward; for instance, usual optimization methods do not work, and grid search algorithms represent the most used approach for estimation. In this paper a heuristic, iterative algorithm for approximate maximum likelihood estimation is introduced for change-point detection in piecewise constant regression models. The algorithm is based on iterative fitting of simple linear models, and appears to extend easily to more general frameworks, such as models i…

Multiplicity- and dependency-adjusted p-values for control of the family-wise error rate

2016

Abstract Under the multiple testing framework, we propose the multiplicity- and dependency-adjustment method (MADAM) which transforms test statistics into adjusted p -values for control of the family-wise error rate. For demonstration, we apply the MADAM to data from a genetic association study.

bookdown: Authoring Books and Technical Documents with R Markdown

2018

Pitfalls of hypothesis tests and model selection on bootstrap samples: Causes and consequences in biometrical applications

2015

The bootstrap method has become a widely used tool applied in diverse areas where results based on asymptotic theory are scarce. It can be applied, for example, for assessing the variance of a statistic, a quantile of interest or for significance testing by resampling from the null hypothesis. Recently, some approaches have been proposed in the biometrical field where hypothesis testing or model selection is performed on a bootstrap sample as if it were the original sample. P-values computed from bootstrap samples have been used, for example, in the statistics and bioinformatics literature for ranking genes with respect to their differential expression, for estimating the variability of p-v…

Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15-49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-18: a modelling study

2021

Background. High-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa. Methods. In this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to e…

Heritability of Lifetime Income

2013

Using 15 years of data on Finnish twins, we find that 24% (54%) of the variance of women’s (men’s) lifetime income is due to genetic factors and that the contribution of the shared environment is negligible. We link these figures to policy by showing that controlling for education reduces the variance share of genetics by 5-8 percentage points; by demonstrating that income uncertainty has a genetic component half the size of its variance share in lifetime income; and by exploring how the genetic heritability of lifetime income is related to the macroeconomic environment, as measured by GDP growth and the Gini-coefficient of income inequality.

Financial contagion through space-time point processes

2020

AbstractWe propose to study the dynamics of financial contagion by means of a class of point process models employed in the modeling of seismic contagion. The proposal extends network models, recently introduced to model financial contagion, in a space-time point process perspective. The extension helps to improve the assessment of credit risk of an institution, taking into account contagion spillover effects.

Dysfunctional beliefs about health and illness: a family study

2019

espanolLos modelos cognitivos sobre la hipocondria postulan que las experiencias tempranas con la enfermedad promueven el desarrollo de creencias disfuncionales sobre la enfermedad. Estas creencias pueden permanecer latentes y activarse ante un incidente critico. Los estudios publicados aportan datos que avalan de manera indirecta estos planteamientos. Teniendo en cuenta que en el nucleo familiar primario se comparten experiencias sobre la enfermedad, examinamos la relacion entre las creencias disfuncionales que los progenitores y sus descendientes mantienen sobre la enfermedad y los pensamientos, tales como la intolerancia a la incertidumbre y la sobreestimacion de la amenaza, y las relaci…

Aspects of a theory of bullshit

2016

This paper addresses the question whetherbullshitis a reasonable pragmatic category. In the first part of the paper, drawing on the insights of Harry Frankfurt’s seminal essay, bullshit is defined as an act of insincere asserting where the speaker shows (a) a loose concern for the truth, and (b) does not want the addressee to become aware of condition (a). The author adds to this definition the condition (c) requiring that the bullshitter expresses morecertaintythan is adequate with respect to condition (a). In the second part of the paper, it is discussed whether the above definition can cope with special types of bullshit considered to be a challenge to Frankfurt’s definition. These areev…

Metadiscourse in Persuasive Writing

1993

Metadiscourse refers to writers' discourse about their discourse—their directions for how readers should read, react to, and evaluate what they have written about the subject matter. In this study the authors divided metadiscourse into textual metadiscourse (text markers and interpretive markers) and interpersonal metadiscourse (hedges, certainty markers, attributors, attitude markers, and commentary). The purpose was to investigate cultural and gender variations in the use of metadiscourse in the United States and Finland by asking whether U.S. and Finnish writers use the same amounts and types and whether gender makes any difference. The analyses revealed that students in both countries …