Search results for "Conditional"
showing 10 items of 294 documents
From imprecise probability assessments to conditional probabilities with quasi additive classes of conditioning events
2012
In this paper, starting from a generalized coherent (i.e. avoiding uniform loss) intervalvalued probability assessment on a finite family of conditional events, we construct conditional probabilities with quasi additive classes of conditioning events which are consistent with the given initial assessment. Quasi additivity assures coherence for the obtained conditional probabilities. In order to reach our goal we define a finite sequence of conditional probabilities by exploiting some theoretical results on g-coherence. In particular, we use solutions of a finite sequence of linear systems.
Probability Propagation in Selected Aristotelian Syllogisms
2019
This paper continues our work on a coherence-based probability semantics for Aristotelian syllogisms (Gilio, Pfeifer, and Sanfilippo, 2016; Pfeifer and Sanfilippo, 2018) by studying Figure III under coherence. We interpret the syllogistic sentence types by suitable conditional probability assessments. Since the probabilistic inference of $P|S$ from the premise set ${P|M, S|M}$ is not informative, we add $p(M|(S ee M))>0$ as a probabilistic constraint (i.e., an ``existential import assumption'') to obtain probabilistic informativeness. We show how to propagate the assigned premise probabilities to the conclusion. Thereby, we give a probabilistic meaning to all syllogisms of Figure~III. We…
Conditional Random Quantities and Compounds of Conditionals
2013
In this paper we consider finite conditional random quantities and conditional previsions assessments in the setting of coherence. We use a suitable representation for conditional random quantities; in particular the indicator of a conditional event $E|H$ is looked at as a three-valued quantity with values 1, or 0, or $p$, where $p$ is the probability of $E|H$. We introduce a notion of iterated conditional random quantity of the form $(X|H)|K$ defined as a suitable conditional random quantity, which coincides with $X|HK$ when $H \subseteq K$. Based on a recent paper by S. Kaufmann, we introduce a notion of conjunction of two conditional events and then we analyze it in the setting of cohere…
Role of conditional probability in multiscale stationary markovian processes.
2010
The aim of the paper is to understand how the inclusion of more and more time-scales into a stochastic stationary Markovian process affects its conditional probability. To this end, we consider two Gaussian processes: (i) a short-range correlated process with an infinite set of time-scales bounded from below, and (ii) a power-law correlated process with an infinite and unbounded set of time-scales. For these processes we investigate the equal position conditional probability P(x,t|x,0) and the mean First Passage Time T(L). The function P(x,t|x,0) can be considered as a proxy of the persistence, i.e. the fact that when a process reaches a position x then it spends some time around that posit…
Beyond Foreign Policy? EU Sanctions at the Intersection of Development, Trade, and CFSP
2022
In the wake of unsettling conflicts and democratic backsliding, states and organisations increasingly respond with sanctions. The European Union (EU) is one of them: Brussels makes use of the entire toolbox in its foreign policy, and its sanctions appear in different forms—diplomatic measures, travel bans, financial bans, or various forms of economic restrictions. Yet, there is little debate between different strands in the literature on EU sanctions, in particular concerning measures under the Common Foreign and Security Policy and those pertaining to the development and trade policy fields. Our thematic issue addresses this research gap by assembling a collection of articles investigating…
Explicit, identical maximum likelihood estimates for some cyclic Gaussian and cyclic Ising models
2017
Cyclic models are a subclass of graphical Markov models with simple, undirected probability graphs that are chordless cycles. In general, all currently known distributions require iterative procedures to obtain maximum likelihood estimates in such cyclic models. For exponential families, the relevant conditional independence constraint for a variable pair is given all remaining variables, and it is captured by vanishing canonical parameters involving this pair. For Gaussian models, the canonical parameter is a concentration, that is, an off-diagonal element in the inverse covariance matrix, while for Ising models, it is a conditional log-linear, two-factor interaction. We give conditions un…
Estimates for the first and second Bohr radii of Reinhardt domains
2004
AbstractWe obtain general lower and upper estimates for the first and the second Bohr radii of bounded complete Reinhardt domains in Cn.
Compounds of conditionals and iterated conditioning under coherence
2017
We discuss the problem of defining logical operations among conditional events. Differently from many authors, we define the conjunction and disjunction in the setting of conditional random quantities. In probability theory and in probability logic a relevant problem, largely discussed by many authors, is that of defining logical operations among conditional events. In the many works concerning these operations, the conjunction and disjunction have been usually defined as suitable conditional events. In Kaufmann 2009 it has been proposed a theory for the compounds of conditionals which has been framed in the setting of coherence in (Gilio and Sanfilippo , 2013, 2014) In this framework, whic…
Factor selection procedures in a Google Earthtm aided landslide susceptibility model: application to the Beiro river basin (Spain)
2011
A procedure to select the controlling factors connected to the slope instability has been defined. It allowed to assess the landslide susceptibility in the Rio Beiro basin (about 10 km2) over the north-eastern area of the city of Granada (Spain). Field and remote (Google EarthTM) recognition techniques allowed to generate a landslide inventory consisting in 127 phenomena. Univariate tests, using both association coefficients and validation results of single parameter susceptibility models, allowed to select among 15 controlling factors the ones that resulted as good predictor variables; these have been combined for unique conditions analysis and susceptibility maps were finally prepared. In…
Conditional cash transfers : empowerment resilience and good behaviours in development policies.
2018
Empowerment, resilience and poverty reduction strategies seem to be bound by mutual exclusion. Through poverty reduction and empowerment, people escape poverty and precarization processes by acquiring capabilities that give them both economic and existential stability; in a word, they acquire human resilience. Nevertheless, the relationship between the three concepts and their corresponding practices is characterized by a complementary link that works as a matrix of neoliberal subjectivation processes that involve both men and women on a global level. Said link is a broad and diverse one where other practices and concepts interact: i.e. vulnerability, securitization, care, responsibility an…