Search results for "Conditional"
showing 10 items of 294 documents
Development of conditional reasoning and Wason's selection task
2004
Influent theories on human reasoning have suggested that Wason's selection task is so difficult because it involves heuristic and implicit processes. However, recent studies have demonstrated the implication of deductive activities. Poor performance on this task would thus result from some of its characteristics that impede the use of deductive processes. In the present experiment, we hypothesised that a modified abstract selection task that induces analytic and deductive processes should lead to better performance than the standard version of the task. Moreover, deductive activities are strongly affected by development (Markovits et Barrouillet, 2002). Thus, we predicted a strong developme…
A Skewed GARCH-in-Mean Model: An Application to U.S. Stock Returns
2004
In this paper we consider a GARCH-in-Mean (GARCH-M) model based on the so-called z distribution. This distribution is capable of modeling moderate skewness and kurtosis typically encountered in financial return series, and the need to allow for skewness can be readily tested. We apply the new GARCH-M model to study the relationship between risk and return in monthly postwar U.S. stock market data. Our results indicate the presence of conditional skewness in U.S. stock returns, and, in contrast to the previous literature, we show that a positive and significant relationship between return and risk can be uncovered, once an appropriate probability distribution is employed to allow for conditi…
On conditional probabilities and their canonical extensions to Boolean algebras of compound conditionals
2023
In this paper we investigate canonical extensions of conditional probabilities to Boolean algebras of conditionals. Before entering into the probabilistic setting, we first prove that the lattice order relation of every Boolean algebra of conditionals can be characterized in terms of the well-known order relation given by Goodman and Nguyen. Then, as an interesting methodological tool, we show that canonical extensions behave well with respect to conditional subalgebras. As a consequence, we prove that a canonical extension and its original conditional probability agree on basic conditionals. Moreover, we verify that the probability of conjunctions and disjunctions of conditionals in a rece…
Role of conditional probability in multiscale stationary markovian processes.
2010
The aim of the paper is to understand how the inclusion of more and more time-scales into a stochastic stationary Markovian process affects its conditional probability. To this end, we consider two Gaussian processes: (i) a short-range correlated process with an infinite set of time-scales bounded from below, and (ii) a power-law correlated process with an infinite and unbounded set of time-scales. For these processes we investigate the equal position conditional probability P(x,t|x,0) and the mean First Passage Time T(L). The function P(x,t|x,0) can be considered as a proxy of the persistence, i.e. the fact that when a process reaches a position x then it spends some time around that posit…
Durum wheat yield uncertainty under different tillage management practices and climatic conditions
2019
Abstract In the field of conservative agriculture, no-till (NT) management has been receiving increasing interest, with 45 million ha of land under no-till management in 1999 to 155 million ha in 2014. Up until now, no-till has only been observed to perform better under rainfed conditions, especially in dry climates mainly because the reduced tillage system retains more soil moisture. However, the adoption of alternative agricultural practices (NT) can be improved only if uncertain and consequent assumption of risk is well known and accepted. For these reasons, the aim of this research is (i) to define durum wheat suitability under NT soil management in terms of yield success probability an…
Obligations and Conditionals
2015
The paper considers two kinds of medieval obligational disputations (positio, rei veritas) and the medieval genre of sophismata in relation to the kinds of inferences accepted in them. The main texts discussed are the anonymous Obligationes parisienses from the early 13th century and Richard Kilvington’s Sophismata from the early 14th century. Four different kinds of warranted transition from an antecedent to a consequent become apparent in the medieval discussions: (1) the strong logical validity of basic propositional logic, (2) analytic validity based on conceptual containment, (3) merely semantic impossibility of the antecedent being true without the consequent, and (4) intuitively true…
Portfolio diversification in the sovereign credit swap markets
2018
We develop models for portfolio diversification in the sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) markets and show that, despite literature findings that sovereign CDS spreads are affected by global factors, there is sufficient idiosyncratic risk to be diversified. However, we identify regime switching in the times series of CDS spreads and spread returns, and the optimal diversified strategies can be regime dependent. The developed models trade off the CVaR risk measure against expected return, consistently with the statistical properties of spreads. We consider three investment strategies suited for different CDS market participants: for investors with long positions, speculators that hold unco…
Incorporating stand level risk management options into forest decision support systems
2018
Aim of study: To examine methods of incorporating risk and uncertainty to stand level forest decisions. Area of study: A case study examines a small forest holding from Jonkoping, Sweden. Material and methods: We incorporate empirically estimated uncertainty into the simulation through a Monte Carlo approach when simulating the forest stands for the next 100 years. For the iterations of the Monte Carlo approach, errors were incorporated into the input data which was simulated according to the Heureka decision support system. Both the Value at Risk and the Conditional Value at Risk of the net present value are evaluated for each simulated stand. Main results: Visual representation of the er…
Probabilistic Logic under Coherence‚ Model−Theoretic Probabilistic Logic‚ and Default Reasoning in System P
2016
We study probabilistic logic under the viewpoint of the coherence principle of de Finetti. In detail, we explore how probabilistic reasoning under coherence is related to model-theoretic probabilistic reasoning and to default reasoning in System P. In particular, we show that the notions of g-coherence and of g-coherent entailment can be expressed by combining notions in model-theoretic probabilistic logic with concepts from default reasoning. Moreover, we show that probabilistic reasoning under coherence is a generalization of default reasoning in System P. That is, we provide a new probabilistic semantics for System P, which neither uses infinitesimal probabilities nor atomic bound (or bi…
Probabilistic Logic under Coherence, Model-Theoretic Probabilistic Logic, and Default Reasoning
2001
We study probabilistic logic under the viewpoint of the coherence principle of de Finetti. In detail, we explore the relationship between coherence-based and model-theoretic probabilistic logic. Interestingly, we show that the notions of g-coherence and of g-coherent entailment can be expressed by combining notions in model-theoretic probabilistic logic with concepts from default reasoning. Crucially, we even show that probabilistic reasoning under coherence is a probabilistic generalization of default reasoning in system P. That is, we provide a new probabilistic semantics for system P, which is neither based on infinitesimal probabilities nor on atomic-bound (or also big-stepped) probabil…