Search results for "Crises"
showing 10 items of 54 documents
Network-Based Computational Techniques to Determine the Risk Drivers of Bank Failures During a Systemic Banking Crisis
2018
This paper employs a computational model of solvency and liquidity contagion assessing the vulnerability of banks to systemic risk. We find that the main risk drivers relate to the financial connections a bank has and the market concentration, apart from the size of the bank triggering the contagion, while balance sheets play only a minor role. We also find that market concentration might facilitate banks to withstand liquidity shocks better while exposing them to larger solvency chocks. Our results are validated through an out-of-sample forecasting that shows that both type I and type II prediction errors are reduced if we include network characteristics in our prediction model.
Une lecture de la crise à la lumière des crises passées.
2010
19 * Les auteurs sont economiste et economiste principale au Departement des Affaires Economiques de l’OCDE. Ils remercient K. SchmidtHebbel, J. Coppel, B. Cournede, R. Ahrend, V. Koen, J.L. Schneider, L. Willard et beaucoup d’autres collegues, en particulier les responsables pays, pour les commentaires et les discussions fructueuses qu’ils ont eus avec eux. Les auteurs remercient aussi trois referes anonymes pour leur relecture approfondie et leurs suggestions. Ce document n’engage pas l’OCDE ni les pays membres. ECONOMIE
Evaluating currency crises: the case of the European monetary system
2007
In this paper we examine the nature of currency crises. We ascertain whether the currency crises of the European Monetary System (EMS) were based either on fundamentals, or on self-fulfilling market expectations driven by extrinsic uncertainty. In particular, we extend previous work of Jeanne and Masson (J Int Econ 50:327–350, 2000) regarding the evaluation of currency crisis. We contribute to the existing literature proposing the use of Markov regime-switching with time-varying transition probability model. Our empirical results suggest that the currency crises of the EMS were not due only to market expectations driven by external uncertainty, or ‘sunspots’, but also to fundamental variabl…
Acidification processes in a peritidal carbonate succession across the Triassic/Jurassic boundary (Sicily)
2017
For the first time, a correlation between biostratigraphic events and δ13C curve was attempted along an UpperTriassic-Lower Jurassic peritidal limestone succession cropping out in westernmost Sicily. The peritidal carbonates are organized in shallowing upward cycles characterized by subtidal skeletal mudstone to grainstone, intertidal microbial mats and supratidal paleosoils. About 300 meters of this succession covering the Triassic-Jurassic interval were studied in details. On the base of the macro- and microfossil assemblages from the subtidal facies, four informal units have been recognized along the studied section. Unit R1 (at the base, 111 m thick) is dominated by large megalodonts, r…
Social Justice and Financial Capitalism: Some Notions on Risks, Hierarchies, and Value
2018
The recurring financial crises and intensive financialisation force a reconsideration of theories of justice. This article analyses financial capitalism as an ideal-type. In ideal-typical financial capitalism, risks and positions of vulnerability take a pronounced role in the determination of social positions. Risks also come in a specific ontological form. Further, the analysis extends to the production of value in financial capitalism and its relation to a particular logic of determining social positions. The article discusses, how should theories of justice be updated to accommodate this particular ontology of risks. This requires also making a distinction between explicit and implicit p…
Crises and Social Media: A Metastudy on Pertinent Research and Practice
2014
Aiming to structure the academic debate and to demonstrate practical use cases of social media in crisis communication, we present in this metastudy the disciplinary embedment, topical foci, challenges, and research gaps in the literature and application of social media in crisis communication. In particular, our research questions address the characteristics and features of the academic discourse and examine the role of grant givers in steering research foci, as well as the value of research outcomes for crisis communication practice. Therefore, we analyze pertinent academic articles and research projects from the past decade and provide an excursus on the actors and social media communica…
La subjectivité des adjectifs qualifiant les Flamands et leurs institutions dans La Libre Belgique
2013
Belgian viimeaikaiset poliittiset kriisit ovat saaneet paljon kansainvälistäkin huomiota. Ne pohjautuvat pääosin jännitteisiin hollantia puhuvien flaamien ja ranskaa puhuvien vallonien välillä. Tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan tilannetta kielellisestä näkökulmasta tarkastelemalla ranskankielisen konservatiivisen sanomalehden La Libre Belgique tapaa kuvata flaameja ja heidän instituutiotaan. Tutkimuksen kohteena ovat flaameihin ja heidän instituutioihinsa viittaavat adjektiivit, joiden subjektivisuutta tutkitaan tässä C. Kerbrat-Orecchionin teorian mukaan. Tämä ranskalainen kielitieteilijä luokittelee adjektiivit objektiivisiin ja subjektiivisiin; subjektiiviset jakautuvat edelleen affektiivisiin…
Labor Market Flexibility and Unemployment: New Empirical Evidence of Static and Dynamic Effects
2012
The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between labor market flexibility and unemployment outcomes. Using a panel of 97 countries from 1985 to 2008, the results of the paper suggest that improvements in labor market flexibility have a statistically and significant negative impact on unemployment outcomes (over unemployment, youth unemployment, and long-term unemployment). Among the different labor market flexibility indicators analyzed, hiring and firing regulations and hiring costs are found to have the strongest effect.
How costly are debt crises?
2011
The aim of this paper is to assess the short- and medium-term impact of debt crises on GDP. Using an unbalanced panel of 154 countries from 1970 to 2008, the paper shows that debt crises produce significant and long-lasting output losses, reducing output by about 10 percent after eight years. The results also suggest that debt crises tend to be more detrimental than banking and currency crises. The significance of the results is robust to different specifications, identification and endogeneity checks, and datasets.