Search results for "Cyclone"

Projecting Exposure to Extreme Climate Impact Events Across Six Event Categories and Three Spatial Scales

2020

Summarization: The extent and impact of climate‐related extreme events depend on the underlying meteorological, hydrological, or climatological drivers as well as on human factors such as land use or population density. Here we quantify the pure effect of historical and future climate change on the exposure of land and population to extreme climate impact events using an unprecedentedly large ensemble of harmonized climate impact simulations from the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. Our results indicate that global warming has already more than doubled both the global land area and the global population annually exposed to all six categories of extreme events co…

Water vapor increase in the northern lower stratosphere by the Asian monsoon anticyclone observed during TACTS/ESMVal campaigns

2017

Abstract. The impact of air masses from Asia influenced by the Asian monsoon anticyclone on the northern hemispheric stratosphere is investigated based on in-situ measurements. An statistical significant increase in water vapor of about 0.5 ppmv (11 %) and methane up to 20 ppbv (1.2 %) in the extra-tropical stratosphere above a potential temperature of 380 K was detected between August and September 2012 by in-situ instrumentation in the northern hemisphere during the HALO aircraft mission TACTS and ESMVal. We investigate the origin of this water vapor and methane increase with the help of the three-dimensional Lagrangian chemistry transport model CLaMS. We assign the source of the moist ai…

A process-based anatomy of Mediterranean cyclones: from baroclinic lows to tropical-like systems

2021

Abstract. In this study, we address the question of the atmospheric processes that turn Mediterranean cyclones into severe storms. Our approach applies on-line potential vorticity (PV) budget diagnostics and piecewise PV inversion to WRF model simulations of the mature stage of 100 intense Mediterranean cyclones. We quantify the relative contributions of different processes to cyclone development and therefore deliver, for the first time, a comprehensive insight into the variety of cyclonic systems that develop in the Mediterranean from the perspective of cyclone dynamics. In particular, we show that all 100 cyclones are systematically influenced by two main PV anomalies: a major anomaly in…

Large-scale, millennial-length temperature reconstructions from tree-rings

2018

Supported by the German Science Foundation, grants # Inst 247/665-1 FUGG and ES 161/9-1. SSG acknowledges support by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, KJA by US National Science Foundation grants AGS-1501856 and NSF AGS-1501834, and JL and LS by the Belmont Forum and JPI-Climate, Collaborative Research Action INTEGRATE. Over the past two decades, the dendroclimate community has produced various annually resolved, warm season temperature reconstructions for the extratropical Northern Hemisphere. Here we compare these tree-ring based reconstructions back to 831 CE and present a set of basic metrics to provide guidance for non-specialists on their interpretation and use. We specifically d…

Modelling circulation in an ice-covered lake

2010

In deep ice-covered lakes with temperatures below 4 °C the heat flux from the bottom sediment results in a horizontal density gradient and a consequent flow along the bottom slope. Measurements in Lake Paajarvi, Finland, show a stable temperature field where a heat gain through the bottom and a heat loss through the ice nearly balance each other. The circulation is thermal with low velocities (less than 1.5 cm s -1 ). We used the 3D hydrodynamic Princeton Ocean Model as a tool to simulate the water circulation and the temperature distribution under the ice. The model forcing was based on field temperature measurements. The model simulations suggest that in midwinter the velocity field of th…

Helices of disaster memory: How forgetting and remembering influence tropical cyclone response in Mauritius

2020

Abstract Tropical cyclones have had a considerable impact on Mauritius. Large cyclones are relatively rare, and in popular imagination are thought to hit Mauritius every 15 years. Yet it has been over 25 years since the last cyclone widely considered as ‘significant’. Critically, there is little known about the role of memory in responses to cyclones and details regarding responses to past cyclones in Mauritian history are scant. This article examines past experiences and impacts of cyclones in Mauritius, as well as contemporary perceptions of cyclone vulnerability and memories of historical cyclones. The analysis draws on both community interviews and archival research conducted in Mauriti…

Dynamics in the extratropical tropopause region: A case of transition between dynamically active and passive tracer advection?

2005

It is argued that certain aspects of tracer patterns and related stirring by the flow in the extratropical tropopause region can be understood in terms of a transition between dynamically active and passive tracer advection, called ‘active-to-passive tracer transition’. In the framework of surface quasi-geostrophic dynamics, a specific initial-value problem is defined and investigated. It features a gradual transition between the two paradigms of tracer advection and allows a clear interpretation thanks to the idealized nature of the model setup. Physical reasoning and anecdotal evidence from previous studies suggest that, at least in specific cases, this interpretation is relevant for the …

South East tropical Atlantic warm events and southern African rainfall

2003

[1] Intrusions of warm equatorial water in the South East Atlantic Ocean off Angola and Namibia may be linked with above average rainfall along the coast of those countries but sometimes also with inland areas of southern Africa e.g. Zambia. During the 1984, 1986, 1995 and 2001 warm events, above average rainfall occurred near the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and extended inland from the coast to an extent that appeared to depend on the intensity of the regional moisture convergence and atmospheric circulation anomalies. Rainfall over western Angola/Namibia is greatest for those events for which the local circulation anomalies act to strengthen the climatological westwards flux o…

2020

Abstract. The vertical distribution and seasonal variation of water vapour volume mixing ratio (H2O VMR), of relative humidity with respect to ice (RHice) and particularly of regions with ice-supersaturated air masses (ISSRs) in the extratropical upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere are investigated at northern mid-latitudes over the eastern North American, North Atlantic and European regions for the period 1995 to 2010. Observation data originate from regular and continuous long-term measurements on board instrumented passenger aircraft in the framework of the European research programme MOZAIC (1994–2010), which continues as the European research infrastructure IAGOS (from 2011). …

Impact of the Asian monsoon on the extratropical lower stratosphere: trace gas observations during TACTS over Europe 2012

2016

Abstract. The transport of air masses originating from the Asian monsoon anticyclone into the extratropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (Ex-UTLS) above potential temperatures Θ =  380 K was identified during the HALO aircraft mission TACTS in August and September 2012. In situ measurements of CO, O3 and N2O during TACTS flight 2 on 30 August 2012 show the irreversible mixing of aged stratospheric air masses with younger (recently transported from the troposphere) ones within the Ex-UTLS. Backward trajectories calculated with the trajectory module of CLaMS indicate that these tropospherically affected air masses originate from the Asian monsoon anticyclone. These air masses are …