Search results for "EPIDEMIC"

Exploring relationships between drought and epidemic cholera in Africa using generalised linear models

2021

Abstract Background Temperature and precipitation are known to affect Vibrio cholerae outbreaks. Despite this, the impact of drought on outbreaks has been largely understudied. Africa is both drought and cholera prone and more research is needed in Africa to understand cholera dynamics in relation to drought. Methods Here, we analyse a range of environmental and socioeconomic covariates and fit generalised linear models to publicly available national data, to test for associations with several indices of drought and make cholera outbreak projections to 2070 under three scenarios of global change, reflecting varying trajectories of CO2 emissions, socio-economic development, and population gr…

Probabilistic stability analysis of social obesity epidemic by a delayed stochastic model

2014

Abstract Sufficient conditions for stability in probability of the equilibrium point of a social obesity epidemic model with distributed delay and stochastic perturbations are obtained. The obesity epidemic model is demonstrated on the example of the Region of Valencia, Spain. The considered nonlinear system is linearized in the neighborhood of the positive point of equilibrium and a sufficient condition for asymptotic mean square stability of the zero solution of the constructed linear system is obtained.

2020

Vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, West Nile virus, and so forth are some of the most prominent threats to human health. They are transmitted to the human population by infected insects or by direct transmission between humans. The epidemic process relies on suitable environmental and climatic conditions. Indeed, climatic factors affect the development of pathogens in vectors as well as the population dynamics of the vectors impacting significantly the incidence of disease in the human population. While the influence of the climatic conditions on Vector-borne diseases is well-documented, there is a strong need to design more realistic epidemiological models incorporating e…

Opioid epidemic spread from Northern and Eastern Europe to Mediterranean Area.

2021

The addiction to illicit opioid and the misuse of prescription synthetic opioids pain relievers and fentanyl analogs generated an opioid epidemic in North America over the last two decades that affected public health with a constantly rising number of overdoses deaths. This health treat moved to Europe with a significant increase starting from 2015 involving mainly norther and eastern countries and finally also the Mediterranean area. The "lock down" isolation and economic recession caused by COVID-19 pandemic showed a resurgence in opioid use and harms.

Active and inactive quarantine in epidemic spreading on adaptive activity-driven networks

2020

We consider an epidemic process on adaptive activity-driven temporal networks, with adaptive behaviour modelled as a change in activity and attractiveness due to infection. By using a mean-field approach, we derive an analytical estimate of the epidemic threshold for SIS and SIR epidemic models for a general adaptive strategy, which strongly depends on the correlations between activity and attractiveness in the susceptible and infected states. We focus on strong social distancing, implementing two types of quarantine inspired by recent real case studies: an active quarantine, in which the population compensates the loss of links rewiring the ineffective connections towards non-quarantining …

Epidemic spreading and aging in temporal networks with memory

2018

Time-varying network topologies can deeply influence dynamical processes mediated by them. Memory effects in the pattern of interactions among individuals are also known to affect how diffusive and spreading phenomena take place. In this paper we analyze the combined effect of these two ingredients on epidemic dynamics on networks. We study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) and the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) models on the recently introduced activity-driven networks with memory. By means of an activity-based mean-field approach we derive, in the long time limit, analytical predictions for the epidemic threshold as a function of the parameters describing the distribution of …

Centrality measures for networks with community structure

2016

Understanding the network structure, and finding out the influential nodes is a challenging issue in the large networks. Identifying the most influential nodes in the network can be useful in many applications like immunization of nodes in case of epidemic spreading, during intentional attacks on complex networks. A lot of research is done to devise centrality measures which could efficiently identify the most influential nodes in the network. There are two major approaches to the problem: On one hand, deterministic strategies that exploit knowledge about the overall network topology in order to find the influential nodes, while on the other end, random strategies are completely agnostic ab…

Immunization Strategies Based on the Overlapping Nodes in Networks with Community Structure

2016

International audience; Understanding how the network topology affects the spread of an epidemic is a main concern in order to develop efficient immunization strategies. While there is a great deal of work dealing with the macroscopic topological properties of the networks, few studies have been devoted to the influence of the community structure. Furthermore, while in many real-world networks communities may overlap, in these studies non-overlapping community structures are considered. In order to gain insight about the influence of the overlapping nodes in the epidemic process we conduct an empirical evaluation of basic deterministic immunization strategies based on the overlapping nodes.…

The Association of H1N1 Pandemic Influenza with Congenital Anomaly Prevalence in Europe

2015

BACKGROUND: In the context of the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT) surveillance response to the 2009 influenza pandemic, we sought to establish whether there was a detectable increase of congenital anomaly prevalence among pregnancies exposed to influenza seasons in general, and whether any increase was greater during the 2009 pandemic than during other seasons.METHODS: We performed an ecologic time series analysis based on 26,967 pregnancies with nonchromosomal congenital anomaly conceived from January 2007 to March 2011, reported by 15 EUROCAT registries. Analysis was performed for EUROCAT-defined anomaly subgroups, divided by whether there was a prior hypothesis of…

Work-life balance during the COVID-19 outbreak: the case of Latvia

2020

This paper aims to shed light on work-life balance in Latvia during the state of emergency The COVID-19 outbreak has led many governments to introduce lockdowns While imposed restrictions may help to contain the spread of the virus, they may also result in substantial damage to population well-being The COVID-19 outbreak in Latvia demonstrates the extent and ways in which socio-demographics factors have determined different patterns of behaviour, attitudes, employment changes and harmonised work and life balance The study describes the chronological development of COVID-19 in the country It describes labour migration to and from Latvia before the COVID-19 outbreak It provides geographical f…