6533b826fe1ef96bd128470a

RESEARCH PRODUCT

Active and inactive quarantine in epidemic spreading on adaptive activity-driven networks

Raffaella BurioniRaffaella BurioniAlessandro VezzaniVittoria ColizzaMarco MancastroppaMarco Mancastroppa

subject

FOS: Computer and information sciences2019-20 coronavirus outbreakAdaptive strategiesPhysics - Physics and SocietyComputer scienceSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)PopulationFOS: Physical sciencesPhysics and Society (physics.soc-ph)Computer securitycomputer.software_genre01 natural sciences010305 fluids & plasmaslaw.inventionlawActive phase0103 physical sciencesQuarantinesusceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)010306 general physicseducationCondensed Matter - Statistical MechanicsAdaptive behaviorSocial and Information Networks (cs.SI)education.field_of_studyStatistical Mechanics (cond-mat.stat-mech)Computer Science - Social and Information Networksepidemic modelsusceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS)Epidemic modelcomputer

description

We consider an epidemic process on adaptive activity-driven temporal networks, with adaptive behaviour modelled as a change in activity and attractiveness due to infection. By using a mean-field approach, we derive an analytical estimate of the epidemic threshold for SIS and SIR epidemic models for a general adaptive strategy, which strongly depends on the correlations between activity and attractiveness in the susceptible and infected states. We focus on strong social distancing, implementing two types of quarantine inspired by recent real case studies: an active quarantine, in which the population compensates the loss of links rewiring the ineffective connections towards non-quarantining nodes, and an inactive quarantine, in which the links with quarantined nodes are not rewired. Both strategies feature the same epidemic threshold but they strongly differ in the dynamics of active phase. We show that the active quarantine is extremely less effective in reducing the impact of the epidemic in the active phase compared to the inactive one, and that in SIR model a late adoption of measures requires inactive quarantine to reach containment.

yearjournalcountryeditionlanguage
2020-01-01
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2004.07902