Search results for "Early warning"
showing 10 items of 43 documents
Ground deformation reveals the scale-invariant conduit dynamics driving explosive basaltic eruptions
2021
The mild activity of basaltic volcanoes is punctuated by violent explosive eruptions that occur without obvious precursors. Modelling the source processes of these sudden blasts is challenging. Here, we use two decades of ground deformation (tilt) records from Stromboli volcano to shed light, with unprecedented detail, on the short-term (minute-scale) conduit processes that drive such violent volcanic eruptions. We find that explosive eruptions, with source parameters spanning seven orders of magnitude, all share a common pre-blast ground inflation trend. We explain this exponential inflation using a model in which pressure build-up is caused by the rapid expansion of volatile-rich magma ri…
Early warning climate indices for malaria and meningitis in tropical ecological zones
2020
AbstractThis study aims at assessing the impacts of climate indices on the spatiotemporal distribution of malaria and meningitis in Nigeria. The primary focus of the research is to develop an Early Warning System (EWS) for assessing climate variability implications on malaria and meningitis spread in the study area. Both climate and health data were used in the study to determine the relationship between climate variability and the occurrence of malaria and meningitis. The assessment was based on variations in different ecological zones in Nigeria. Two specific sample locations were randomly selected in each ecological zone for the analysis. The climatic data used in this study are dekadal …
Early warning of systemic risk in global banking: eigen-pair R number for financial contagion and market price-based methods
2021
AbstractWe analyse systemic risk in the core global banking system using a new network-based spectral eigen-pair method, which treats network failure as a dynamical system stability problem. This is compared with market price-based Systemic Risk Indexes (SRIs), viz. Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES), Delta Conditional Value-at-Risk (Delta-CoVaR), and Conditional Capital Shortfall Measure of Systemic Risk (SRISK) in a cross-border setting. Unlike paradoxical market price based risk measures, which underestimate risk during periods of asset price booms, the eigen-pair method based on bilateral balance sheet data gives early-warning of instability in terms of the tipping point that is analogou…
Ongoing and emerging questions in water erosion studies
2017
51 Pags.- 9 Figs. The definitive version is available at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)1099-145X
The SESAMO early warning system for rainfall-triggered landslides
2016
The development of Web-based information systems coupled with advanced monitoring systems could prove to be extremely useful in landslide risk management and mitigation. A new frontier in the field of rainfall-triggered landslides (RTLs) lies in the real-time modelling of the relationship between rainfall and slope stability; this requires an intensive monitoring of some key parameters that could be achieved through the use of modern and often low-cost technologies. This work describes an integrated information system for early warning of RTLs that has been deployed and tested, in a prototypal form, for an Italian pilot site. The core of the proposed system is a wireless sensor network coll…
Predicting dengue fever outbreaks in French Guiana using climate indicators
2016
Background Dengue fever epidemic dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses. Associations between climate and dengue have been studied around the world, but the results have shown that the impact of the climate can vary widely from one study site to another. In French Guiana, climate-based models are not available to assist in developing an early warning system. This study aims to evaluate the potential of using oceanic and atmospheric conditions to help predict dengue fever outbreaks in French Guiana. Methodology/Principal Findings Lagged correlations and composite analyses were performed to identify the climatic conditions that characterized a typical e…
Climate change engenders a better Early Warning System development across Sub-Saharan Africa: The malaria case
2022
It is expected that diseases are likely to spread to newer areas, and high-income countries may experience some illnesses that may have been restricted to low or middle-income countries. In addition, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the present study noted that climate change is likely to have many effects on the spatial and temporal distribution of malaria in many Sub-Saharan African countries. This study examines climate change effects on the geographical distribution of malaria occurrence and how extreme climatic events may perhaps be determining factors in the range of vectors for human diseases in SSA in the nearest future. Here, the study appraisals the symbiot…
An integrated information system for the acquisition, management and sharing of environmental data aimed to decision making
2012
This paper reports the first results of the Project SESAMO - SistEma informativo integrato per l’acquisizione, geStione e condivisione di dati AMbientali per il supportO alle decisioni (Integrated Information System for the acquisition, management and sharing of environmental data aimed to decision making). The main aim of the project is to design and develop an integrated environmental information platform able to provide monitoring services for decision support, integrating data from different environmental monitoring systems (including WSN). This ICT platform, based on a service-oriented architecture (SOA), will be developed to coordinate a wide variety of data acquisition systems, based…
Decision Support for Disaster Risk Management: Integrating Vulnerabilities into Early-Warning Systems
2014
International audience; Despite the potential of new technologies and the improvements of early-warning systems since the 2004 Tsunami, damage and harm caused by disasters do not stop to increase. There is a clear need for better integrating the fragmented landscape of researchers and practitioners working on different aspects of decision support for disaster risk reduction and response. To demonstrate and discuss the advantages of integrated systems, we will focus in this paper on vulnerabilities and early-warning systems. While vulnerabilities are mostly used to allocate risk management resources (preparedness), early-warning systems are designed to initiate the response phase. Indicator …
Using an X-band radar for an urban area early flood warning system
2021
Floods represent a serious hazard in many areas of the world in terms of damage to properties and loss of life. For this reason, the European Floods Directive 2007/60/EC on the assessment and management of flood risk required the relevant bodies of the Member States to have adequate and efficient tools for assessing the flood risk of river basins and establishing flood risk management plans focused on prevention and protection of territory and people. The decision makers involved in flood defense often need some hydro-informatics tools to transform the flood forecast into relatively simple and clear messages that allow them to take prompt action to prevent and/or counteract the flood. From …