Search results for "Econometric"
showing 10 items of 3780 documents
COMPUTATION OF LOCAL VOLATILITIES FROM REGULARIZED DUPIRE EQUATIONS
2005
We propose a new method to calibrate the local volatility function of an asset from observed option prices of the underlying. Our method is initialized with a preprocessing step in which the given data are smoothened using cubic splines before they are differentiated numerically. In a second step the Dupire equation is rewritten as a linear equation for a rational expression of the local volatility. This equation is solved with Tikhonov regularization, using some discrete gradient approximation as penalty term. We show that this procedure yields local volatilities which appear to be qualitatively correct.
Construction and optimality of a special class of balanced designs
2006
The use of balanced designs is generally advisable in experimental practice. In technological experiments, balanced designs optimize the exploitation of experimental resources, whereas in marketing research experiments they avoid erroneous conclusions caused by the misinterpretation of interviewed customers. In general, the balancing property assures the minimum variance of first-order effect estimates. In this work the authors consider situations in which all factors are categorical and minimum run size is required. In a symmetrical case, it is often possible to find an economical balanced design by means of algebraic methods. Conversely, in an asymmetrical case algebraic methods lead to e…
Hedging of Spatial Temperature Risk with Market-Traded Futures
2011
The main objective of this work is to construct optimal temperature futures from available market-traded contracts to hedge spatial risk. Temperature dynamics are modelled by a stochastic differential equation with spatial dependence. Optimal positions in market-traded futures minimizing the variance are calculated. Examples with numerical simulations based on a fast algorithm for the generation of random fields are presented.
Bayesian model averaging and weighted-average least squares: Equivariance, stability, and numerical issues
2011
In this article, we describe the estimation of linear regression models with uncertainty about the choice of the explanatory variables. We introduce the Stata commands bma and wals, which implement, respectively, the exact Bayesian model-averaging estimator and the weighted-average least-squares estimator developed by Magnus, Powell, and Prüfer (2010, Journal of Econometrics 154: 139–153). Unlike standard pretest estimators that are based on some preliminary diagnostic test, these model-averaging estimators provide a coherent way of making inference on the regression parameters of interest by taking into account the uncertainty due to both the estimation and the model selection steps. Spec…
Characterization of Maya Blue Pigment in Pre-Classic and Classic Monumental Architecture of the Ancient Pre-Culombian City of Calakmul (Campeche, Mex…
2011
This paper presents the first evidence of the use of Maya Blue pigment in late pre-classic (c.300BC-300AD) architecture in the Maya Lowlands. This was detected combining an innovative technique, the voltammetry of microparticles (VMP), with atomic force microscopy (AFM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), scanning electron microscopy/energy dispersive X-ray microanalysis (SEM/EDX), visible spectrophotometry and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). The pigment was found on the polychrome facade of substructure IIC of pre-Columbian city of Calakmul (Campeche, Mexico). The identification of Maya Blue in this building may prove to be the earliest known use of this colour on the …
Secular Mean Reversion and Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market
2013
Empirical financial literature documents the evidence of mean reversion in stock prices and the absence of out-of-sample return predictability over periods shorter than 10 years. The goal of this paper is to test the random walk hypothesis in stock prices and return predictability over periods longer than 10 years. Specifically, using 141 years of data, this paper begins by performing formal tests of the random walk hypothesis in the prices of the real S&P Composite Index over increasing time horizons up to 40 years. Even though our results cannot support the conventional wisdom which says that the stock market is safer for long-term investors, our findings speak in favor of the mean revers…
IFRS Adoption and Unconditional Conservatism: An Accruals-Based Analysis
2020
This paper finds its motivation in the lack of robust results in the literature that analyse the effect on unconditional conservatism of the mandatory adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) by the Spanish listed companies. We provide new evidence by using, for the first time in this context, a non-market-based measure of unconditional conservatism: the accruals-based measure proposed by Givoly and Hayn (2000). We use econometric panel data techniques applied to a panel of 96 non-financial firms and 10 years. The results show evidence that support a significant reduction of the unconditional conservatism of Spanish listed companies due to the adoption of IFRS.
Introducing the Temporal Distortion Index to perform a bidimensional analysis of renewable energy forecast
2016
Abstract Wind has been the largest contributor to the growth of renewal energy during the early 21st century. However, the natural uncertainty that arises in assessing the wind resource implies the occurrence of wind power forecasting errors which perform a considerable role in the impacts and costs in the wind energy integration and its commercialization. The main goal of this paper is to provide a deeper insight in the analysis of timing errors which leads to the proposal of a new methodology for its control and measure. A new methodology, based on Dynamic Time Warping, is proposed to be considered in the estimation of accuracy as attribute of forecast quality. A new dissimilarity measure…
Performance Measurement and Outperformance Tests
2017
This chapter explains how to evaluate the performance of a trading strategy and how to carry out a statistical test of the hypothesis that a moving average trading strategy outperforms the corresponding buy-and-hold strategy. In particular, it argues that there is no unique performance measure, reviews the most popular performance measures, and points to the limitations of these measures. The chapter then surveys the parametric methods of testing the outperformance hypothesis and the current “state of the art” non-parametric methods.
Psychometric Properties of an Emotional Adjustment Measure
2007
Item response theory (IRT) provides valuable methods for the analysis of the psychometric properties of a psychological measure. However, IRT has been mainly used for assessing achievements and ability rather than personality factors. This paper presents an application of the IRT to a personality measure. Thus, the psychometric properties of a new emotional adjustment measure that consists of a 28-six graded response items is shown. Classical test theory (CTT) analyses as well as IRT analyses are carried out. Samejima's (1969) graded-response model has been used for estimating item parameters. Results show that the bank of items fulfills model assumptions and fits the data reasonably well,…