Search results for "Ex-ante"
showing 10 items of 26 documents
Production Inventory and Enterprise System Implementation: An Ex-ante No-Cost Based Evaluation
2010
The objective of this paper is to present an Enterprise System (ES) ex-ante no-cost based three step evaluation technique, which enables a pre-emptive analysis of the effects of an ES implementation using a system of referenced non financial performance metrics. The innovativeness is in the use of a simulation model fully integrated with the evaluation procedure. Researchers can extend the presented technique to further modelling approaches and test it on different market sectors. The analysis provides practitioners with a measurement system that enables an analysis of the effects of a given ES implementation and can be further employed in financial evaluations.
Rail access charges and internal competition in high speed trains
2016
Abstract This paper develops an ex ante analysis of the introduction of on-track competition in High Speed Rail (HSR) lines. The distinctive elements of our analysis are the consideration of: (i) the vertical structure of the rail sector, (ii) operators that compete in prices and number of services, and (iii) access charges for the use of the rail infrastructure that are endogenous. We provide simulation results for three Spanish HSR routes. The socio-economic viability of entry is found to depend on whether infrastructure and rail operations are integrated or separated, and also on the policy rule to set rail access charges. Firstly, separation without entry is not an appropriate good poli…
Contractual Satisfaction: The Polish and Tanzanian Perspectives
2013
Purpose: Interfirm satisfaction has been studied at the aggregate level, which has limited use in terms of understanding specific dimensions. Contractual satisfaction relates to the specific level of analyzing interfirm satisfaction. This study contributes towards understanding contractual satisfaction and the contextual nature of the concept. To achieve the latter, two heterogeneous emerging markets were used (Poland and Tanzania). Methodology: The study was conducted in Poland and Tanzania, focusing on manufacturing firms. The sample included 201 Polish firms and 240 Tanzanian firms. Findings: The major findings suggest that ex ante costs and ex post specifications have a significant posi…
A note on risk aversion and learning behavior
1995
Abstract This paper analyzes the learning behavior of a risk-averse agent. We find two conflicting effects in the experimental behavior: a stronger preference for the ex post reduction in uncertainty, but ex ante the returns to information are more uncertain.
Is ex‐ante ex‐post analysis irrelevant to Keynes's theory of employment?
2004
Ex‐ante ex‐post analysis has become a standard tool in macroeconomics. Yet Keynes dismissed it. We argue that Keynes's dismissal of ex‐ante ex‐post analysis is not an oddity but an indication of the originality of his theory of employment compared to standard macroeconomics. First, the principle of effective demand does not amount to a process that determines employment and income at the point of intersection of the traditionally defined ex ante supply and demand functions. Second, the finance motive allowed Keynes to confirm the identity of aggregate supply and demand already asserted in The General Theory. This latter conclusion is puzzling, however, since the principle of effective deman…
Contract, Renegotiation, and Holdup: When Should Messages be Sent?
2015
I consider a setting of complete but unverifiable information in which two agents enter a contractual relationship to induce mutually beneficial investments. As my main result, I establish that the famous irrelevance of contracting paradigm, that arises due to the detrimental effect of renegotiation, is resolved if there is a fixed point in time when actions have to be chosen and one accounts for the fact that renegotiation takes time. What drives my optimality result is that, by stipulating when the mechanism is to be played, the agents ensure that renegotiation is possible ex ante but not ex post.
Impacto económico de las rentas mínimas: la Renta Valenciana de Inclusión
2019
Las Comunidades Autónomas son las principales responsables de la política de asistencia social en España. Recientemente, la Comunidad Valenciana ha reformado su sistema de rentas mínimas, instaurando la denominada Renta Valenciana de Inclusión. En el presente trabajo se calcula el impacto económico de este programa partiendo de una estimación ex-ante del gasto público a realizar. La estimación cuantifica el número de beneficiarios y el coste presupuestario de la medida; y compara estos resultados con las restantes Comunidades Autónomas. La Comunidad Valenciana se situaría entre las regiones españolas con mayor tasa de cobertura y con mayor gasto por habitante en este tipo de políticas. En b…
Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Africa team
2021
Abstract COVID-19 disrupted international tourism worldwide, subsequently presenting forecasters with a challenging conundrum. In this competition, we predict international arrivals for 20 destinations in two phases: (i) Ex post forecasts pre-COVID; (ii) Ex ante forecasts during and after the pandemic up to end 2021. Our results show that univariate combined with cross-sectional hierarchical forecasting techniques (THieF-ETS) outperform multivariate models pre-COVID. Scenarios were developed based on judgemental adjustment of the THieF-ETS baseline forecasts. Analysts provided a regional view on the most likely path to normal, based on country-specific regulations, macroeconomic conditions,…
Cost uncertainty and trade liberalization in international oligopoly
1998
Abstract Trade liberalization has been shown to be unfavourable for firms of at least one country for the homogeneous goods case in an environment of certainty. We show that, in the presence of private cost information and for ex ante identical firms, oligopolistic firms will prefer to operate under free trade rather than under autarky in homogeneous goods industries provided there exists a certain degree of firms' heterogeneity and a sufficiently large amount of uncertainty. For the particular case of symmetry both in demand and industry sizes, the firms of at least one country prefer to operate under autarky rather than under free trade.
IMPLEMENTING A VALUE ASSESSMENT TOOL FOR SERVICE INNOVATION IDEAS
2010
There has not been much discussion of how firms may assess the value of service innovation projects ex-ante in the extant research literature. This paper theoretically derives a value assessment tool for service innovation ideas called QSI (tool for pre-Qualification of Service Innovation projects). Thereafter QSI is implemented in three firms and it is explored to what degree the implementation improved managerial decision making on service innovation projects and investments. The findings indicated that the implementation of QSI had effects both in a portfolio management and a project management perspective. From a portfolio management point of view deployment of QSI improved the particip…