Search results for "Forecast"
showing 10 items of 417 documents
Building energy performance forecasting: A multiple linear regression approach
2019
Abstract Different ways to evaluate the building energy balance can be found in literature, including comprehensive techniques, statistical and machine-learning methods and hybrid approaches. The identification of the most suitable approach is important to accelerate the preliminary energy assessment. In the first category, several numerical methods have been developed and implemented in specialised software using different mathematical languages. However, these tools require an expert user and a model calibration. The authors, in order to overcome these limitations, have developed an alternative, reliable linear regression model to determine building energy needs. Starting from a detailed …
Energy Consumption/Generation Model: Data collected, architecture conceived and scenarios addressed
2014
The paper provides the data collected, the architecture and the conceived scenarios for the development of an Energy Consumptions/Generations Model. This model is suitable for the modeling, processing, analyzing and forecasting of energy consumption and generation at home, building and neighborhood level. Data are from the Census Returns, Electoral Registers & Council of the real town of Loughborough (U.K.). The architecture conceived describes the real distribution system which supplies the Loughborough geographic area. The scenarios considered take into account both traditional dwellings (equipped with dumb appliances) and new dwellings (equipped with smart networked appliances) © 2014 IE…
A fuzzy decision support tool for demand forecasting
2007
In this paper we present a decision support forecasting system to work with univariate time series based on the generalized exponential smoothing (Holt-Winters) approach. It is conceived as an integrated tool which has been implemented in Visual Basic. For improving the accuracy of the automatic forecasting it uses an optimization-based scheme which unifies the stages of estimation of the parameters and selects the best method using a fuzzy multicriteria approach. The elements of the set of local minima of the non-linear programming problems allow us to build the membership functions of the conflicting objectives. A set of real data is analyzed to show the performance of our forecasting too…
A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe : an expert consultation
2021
How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence COVID-19 in Europe. The future challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of variants of concern, and public responses to nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people are still unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and population mixing is expected to increase over the summer. Therefore, policies that lift restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This ch…
Diagnostic immunohistochemistry in neuromuscular disorders.
2005
Most neuromuscular disorders display only non-specific myopathological features in routine histological preparations. However, a number of proteins, including sarcolemmal, sarcomeric, and nuclear proteins as well as enzymes with defects responsible for neuromuscular disorders, have been identified during the past two decades, allowing a more specific and firm diagnosis of muscle diseases. Identification of protein defects relies predominantly on immunohistochemical preparations and on Western blot analysis. While immunohistochemistry is very useful in identifying abnormal expression of primary protein abnormalities in recessive conditions, it is less helpful in detecting primary defects in …
Validation of a mechanistic model for predicting fruit scab infection on different loquat cultivars
2017
[EN] Scab, caused by Fusicladium eriobotryae, is the main disease affecting loquat (Eriobotrya japonica) in the Mediterranean basin. A mechanistic epidemiological model developed in Spain to predict infection of loquat fruit by conidia was assessed in the main loquat cultivated area of Italy (Sicily). A 3-year study (2014-2016) was carried out in an experimental orchard on three loquat cultivars: Algerie, Peluche and San Filipparo. For each cultivar, output of the model was compared with observed scab development on fruits. The scab epidemics observed were different in different years and cultivars, representing a suitable data set for model validation. The model correctly predicted loquat …
Impact of Noah-LSM Parameterizations on WRF Mesoscale Simulations: Case Study of Prevailing Summer Atmospheric Conditions over a Typical Semi-Arid Re…
2021
The current study evaluates the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to forecast surface energy fluxes over a region in Eastern Spain. Focusing on the sensitivity of the model to Land Surface Model (LSM) parameterizations, we compare the simulations provided by the original Noah LSM and the Noah LSM with multiple physics options (Noah-MP). Furthermore, we assess the WRF sensitivity to different Noah-MP physics schemes, namely the calculation of canopy stomatal resistance (OPT_CRS), the soil moisture factor for stomatal resistance (OPT_BTR), and the surface layer drag coefficient (OPT_SFC). It has been found that these physics options strongly affect the energy partiti…
Climate change impact on SWAT simulated streamflow in western Kenya
2009
12 pages (3/4 p.); International audience; Weather and climate extremes such as droughts and floods have far reaching impacts in Kenya. They have had implications in a variety of sectors including agriculture, water resources, health, energy, and disaster management among others. Lake Victoria and its catchment support millions of people and any impact on its ability to support the livelihoods of the communities in this region is of major concern. Thus, the main objective of this study was to assess the potential future climatic changes on the Nzoia catchment in the Lake Victoria basin, and how they might affect streamflow. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to investigate the impa…
Co-citation, bibliographic coupling and leading authors, institutions and countries in the 50 years of Technological Forecasting and Social Change
2021
[EN] Technological Forecasting and Social Change (TF&SC) is a leading international journal that publishes major advances related to technological forecasting and future studies. The journal was launched in 1969 and in 2019 celebrated its 50th anniversary. To celebrate 50 years of outstanding contributions, this study presents a bibliometric analysis of TF&SC publications and patterns of citations within TF&SC in terms of authors, institutions and countries. The analysis relies on the Web of Science Core Collection database for bibliographic content and Visualization of Similarities viewer software for mapping of bibliometric data. Our analysis identifies leading authors, universities and c…
An approach to day ahead forecasting of solar irradiance with an application to energy gain in solar thermal collectors
2014
Masteroppgave i fornybar energi ENE 500 Universitetet i Agder 2014 Today, for the management of energy supply systems forecast information on load and theproduction of meteorology dependent (wind, solar, hydro) generation is ever rising. Solarirradiance forecasting is given a unique priority as it spans over major applications such asmanagement of grids with a high share of photovoltaic generation and thermal power supplysystems relying on solar heat generation. This thesis will address the day ahead prediction of thelocal irradiances intended to be applied for the management of solar assistant systems for heat andhot water supply. The forecast method presented here is based on the statisti…