Search results for "Forecasting"
showing 10 items of 329 documents
JABB: Moving Towards The Future.
2012
Global Demand for Paper Products: 2006–2050
2012
Our aim is to formulate and present global demand forecasts for several paper products for the main regions of the world for the period 2005-2050. Our forecasts, while based on standard regression modeling, differ from existing ones in that they are based not only on historical observed consumption patterns and projections of economic growth, but also take into account changes in the demographic constitution of countries and regions, and incorporate the assumption that beyond certain level economic prosperity (here in terms of GDP per capita) does not translate into increased demand for paper products. Our key results are threefold. First, the demand for paperboard and hygiene products will…
Novel Energy Modelling and Forecasting Tools for Smart Energy Networks
2015
A novel Energy Modelling and Forecasting Tool (EMFT) has been adopted for use in the VIM SEN (Virtual Microgrids for Smart Energy Networks) project and this paper gives an insight of the techniques used to provide vital support to the energy market, in particular to energy aggregators. A brief description of one of the test sites where data has been collected for validation of the EMFT will be outlined and some examples shown. The information and predictions will then be used by a decision support system to dynamically adjust energy delivery and consumption, by giving advice to users and operators on actions they can take to obtain a better match between energy supply and demand that increa…
Machine learning methods to forecast temperature in buildings
2013
Efficient management of energy in buildings saves a very important amount of resources (both economic and technological). As a consequence, there is a very active research in this field. One of the keys of energy management is the prediction of the variables that directly affect building energy consumption and personal comfort. Among these variables, one can highlight the temperature in each room of a building. In this work we apply different machine learning techniques along with other classical ones for predicting the temperatures in different rooms. The obtained results demonstrate the validity of these techniques for predicting temperatures and, therefore, for the establishment of optim…
A Short-Term Data Based Water Consumption Prediction Approach
2019
A smart water network consists of a large number of devices that measure a wide range of parameters present in distribution networks in an automatic and continuous way. Among these data, you can find the flow, pressure, or totalizer measurements that, when processed with appropriate algorithms, allow for leakage detection at an early stage. These algorithms are mainly based on water demand forecasting. Different approaches for the prediction of water demand are available in the literature. Although they present successful results at different levels, they have two main drawbacks: the inclusion of several seasonalities is quite cumbersome, and the fitting horizons are not very large. With th…
Sea breeze thunderstorms in the eastern Iberian Peninsula. Neighborhood verification of HIRLAM and HARMONIE precipitation forecasts
2014
In this study we investigated sea breeze thunderstorms with intense convective activity (i.e., heavy rainfall, hail and gusty winds) that occurred over the eastern Iberian Peninsula (Spain) and were missed by the operational HIRLAM model. We used two grid-spacing setups (5.0. km and 2.5. km) of the hydrostatic HIRLAM model, and the non-hydrostatic spectral HARMONIE suite (2.5. km), to simulate isolated convection associated with sea breezes. The overall aim is to estimate the ability of these three experimental setups, in particular the HARMONIE model as the forthcoming operational numerical weather prediction in most European Weather Services, to correctly simulate convective precipitation…
Multi-model simulations of a convective situation in low-mountain terrain in central Europe
2008
The goal of the present study is to investigate the variability of simulated convective precipitation by three convection-resolving models using different set-ups and initial and boundary conditions. The COSMO, MM5 and WRF models have been used to simulate the atmospheric situation on 12 July 2006, when local convection occurred in central Europe under weak synoptic forcing. The focus of this investigation is on the convective precipitation in the northern Black Forest in South-West Germany. The precipitation fields from the nine model simulations differ considerably. Six simulations capture the convective character of the event. However, they differ considerably in the location and timing …
The future of transmission electron microscopy (TEM) in biology and medicine.
2000
Tourism recovery amid COVID-19: The case of Lombardy, Italy
2021
Travel restrictions and social distancing imposed to curb the spread of the new coronavirus have been strongly hitting tourism since March 2020. Tourism forecasting literature addressed the effects of shocks in contexts characterized by a predictable route to recovery. COVID-19 is without precedents. In this article, monthly overnight stays for the period January 2010 to December 2020 are used to estimate the impact of the pandemic in Lombardy, Italy’s most affected region. A model-based approach is implemented, and the number of overnight stays up to December 2023 is forecasted. Four models are compared. Estimation results from an augmented SARIMA model suggest that, provided a new lockdo…
Inclusive education in Finland: present and future perspectives.
1994
The movement to integrate special education students into normal school classes started to develop in Finland in the 1960s. At the same time, the number of students labeled “special” in the Finnish comprehensive school system exploded from 2% to 17% of all school children. Presently, 84% of all special education placements are part-time placements. Special schools and special classes comprise 15% of all special education placements, while full inclusion is only 1% of all special education placements. Some factors affecting the current integration of special students and the development of integration are discussed.