Search results for "Modelling"
showing 10 items of 1353 documents
On the stability and ergodicity of adaptive scaling Metropolis algorithms
2011
The stability and ergodicity properties of two adaptive random walk Metropolis algorithms are considered. The both algorithms adjust the scaling of the proposal distribution continuously based on the observed acceptance probability. Unlike the previously proposed forms of the algorithms, the adapted scaling parameter is not constrained within a predefined compact interval. The first algorithm is based on scale adaptation only, while the second one incorporates also covariance adaptation. A strong law of large numbers is shown to hold assuming that the target density is smooth enough and has either compact support or super-exponentially decaying tails.
The coalescent in population models with time-inhomogeneous environment
2002
AbstractThe coalescent theory, well developed for the class of exchangeable population models with time-homogeneous reproduction law, is extended to a class of population models with time-inhomogeneous environment, where the population size is allowed to vary deterministically with time and where the distribution of the family sizes is allowed to change from generation to generation. A new class of time-inhomogeneous coalescent limit processes with simultaneous multiple mergers arises. Its distribution can be characterized in terms of product integrals.
Spatio-temporal small area surveillance of the COVID-19 pandemic
2022
Abstract The emergence of COVID-19 requires new effective tools for epidemiological surveillance. Spatio-temporal disease mapping models, which allow dealing with small units of analysis, are a priority in this context. These models provide geographically detailed and temporally updated overviews of the current state of the pandemic, making public health interventions more effective. These models also allow estimating epidemiological indicators highly demanded for COVID-19 surveillance, such as the instantaneous reproduction number R t , even for small areas. In this paper, we propose a new spatio-temporal spline model particularly suited for COVID-19 surveillance, which allows estimating a…
Electronic structure and energy decomposition analyses as a tool to interpret the redox potential ranking of naphtho-, biphenyl- and biphenylenequino…
2016
By calling on modelling approaches we have performed a comparative study on the redox properties of various naphtho-, biphenyl- and biphenylene-quinone isomers. These different compounds exhibit as a whole a redox potential range between 2.09 and 2.90 V vs. Li+/Li. A specific methodology was used to decrypt the interplay among isomerism, aromaticity and antiaromaticity modifications and the stabilization/destabilization effects due to other molecular components on this key electrochemical feature for electrode materials of batteries. In particular, energy decomposition analysis, within the Quantum Theory of Atoms in Molecules, along with the electron and electron spin population changes upo…
A stochastic interspecific competition model to predict the behaviour of Listeria monocytogenes in the fermentation process of a traditional Sicilian…
2008
The present paper discusses the use of modified Lotka-Volterra equations in order to stochastically simulate the behaviour of Listeria monocytogenes and Lactic Acid Bacteria (LAB) during the fermentation period (168 h) of a typical Sicilian salami. For this purpose, the differential equation system is set considering T, pH and aw as stochastic variables. Each of them is governed by dynamics that involve a deterministic linear decrease as a function of the time t and an "additive noise" term which instantaneously mimics the fluctuations of T, pH and aw. The choice of a suitable parameter accounting for the interaction of LAB on L. monocytogenes as well as the introduction of appropriate nois…
A Theoretical Learning Model Combining Stochastic Cellular Automata and Economic Indicators to Simulate Land Use Change
2015
The study of change in land use has been included in territorial planning to inform spatial planners and policy makers of the possible developments they face in order to optimize future management decisions. In this paper the authors present the core of an original learning model coupling stochastic Cellular Automata and economic indicators to simulate the land use change. This model is an important step in building an “environmental virtual laboratory” to explore, explain and forecast land use change.
Spatio-temporal behaviour of the deep chlorophyll maximum in Mediterranean Sea: Development of a stochastic model for picophytoplankton dynamics
2013
In this paper, by using a stochastic reaction-diffusion-taxis model, we analyze the picophytoplankton dynamics in the basin of the Mediterranean Sea, characterized by poorly mixed waters. The model includes intraspecific competition of picophytoplankton for light and nutrients. The multiplicative noise sources present in the model account for random fluctuations of environmental variables. Phytoplankton distributions obtained from the model show a good agreement with experimental data sampled in two different sites of the Sicily Channel. The results could be extended to analyze data collected in different sites of the Mediterranean Sea and to devise predictive models for phytoplankton dynam…
A non-homogeneous Poisson based model for daily rainfall data
2007
In this paper we report some results of the application of a new stochastic model applied to rainfall daily data. The Poisson models, characterized only by the expected rate of events (impulse occurrences, that is the mean number of impulses per unit time) and the assigned probability distribution of the phenomenon magnitude, do not take into consideration the datum regarding the duration of the occurrences, that is fundamental from a hydrological point of view. In order to describe the phenomenon in a way more adherent to its physical nature, we propose a new model simple and manageable. This model takes into account another random variable, representing the duration of the rainfall due to…
Stochastic model of memristor based on the length of conductive region
2021
Abstract We propose a stochastic model of a voltage controlled bipolar memristive system, which includes the properties of widely used dynamic SPICE models and takes into account the fluctuations inherent in memristors. The proposed model is described by rather simple equations of Brownian diffusion, does not require significant computational resources for numerical modeling, and allows obtaining the exact analytical solutions in some cases. The noise-induced transient bimodality phenomenon, arising under resistive switching, was revealed and investigated theoretically and experimentally in a memristive system, by finding a quite good qualitatively agreement between theory and experiment. B…
Strategic Asset Building and Competitive Strategies for SMEs which Compete with Industry Giants
2014
This chapter studies companies which are arguably business super-heroes – the small firms which despite the apparent handicap of very limited resources are able to compete against much larger, multinational firms – the micro-giants Davids that take on Goliaths. Through a process of detailed case studies of actual firms, analysis of asset structure, and experiments with a simulation model, the relationships between key assets, critical success factors, and micro-giant competiveness are explored. The model produces six scenarios reflecting different strategies for developing tangible and intangible assets and, critically, the balance between them. A level of aggression is needed in asset buil…