Search results for "Operation"
showing 10 items of 2969 documents
Emergent vulnerabilities in Integrated Operations: A proactive simulation study of economic risk
2009
Abstract The protection of critical infrastructure requires an understanding of the effects of change on current and future safety and operations. Vulnerabilities may emerge during the rollout of updated techniques and integration of new technology with existing work practices. Managers need to understand how their decisions, often focused on economic priorities, affect the dynamics of vulnerability over time. Such understanding is difficult to obtain, as the historical data typically used for decision support, prediction and forecasting may not be available. We report on the use of group model building and simulation to consider proactively the effects of a 10-year, multi-billion dollar mo…
Assembly support systems with Markov predictors
2020
In this paper, we analyse Markov prediction as a suitable model to suggest the next assembly step in the manufacturing process. The goal is a decision support system which can assist the workers in...
Incorporating stand level risk management options into forest decision support systems
2018
Aim of study: To examine methods of incorporating risk and uncertainty to stand level forest decisions. Area of study: A case study examines a small forest holding from Jonkoping, Sweden. Material and methods: We incorporate empirically estimated uncertainty into the simulation through a Monte Carlo approach when simulating the forest stands for the next 100 years. For the iterations of the Monte Carlo approach, errors were incorporated into the input data which was simulated according to the Heureka decision support system. Both the Value at Risk and the Conditional Value at Risk of the net present value are evaluated for each simulated stand. Main results: Visual representation of the er…
A Fuzzy Inference Expert System to Support the Decision of Deploying a Military Naval Unit to a Mission
2009
Naval military units are complex systems required to operate in fixed time frames in offshore tasks where maintenance operations are drastically limited. A failure during a mission is a critical event that can drastically influence the mission success. The decision of switching a unit to a mission hence requires complex judgments involving information about the health status of machineries and the environmental conditions. The present procedure aims to support the decision about switching a unit to a mission considering the vagueness and uncertainty of information by means of fuzzy theory and emulates the decision process of a human expert by means of a rule-based inference engine. A numeri…
Determining the implementation order of a general plan by using a multicriteria method
1998
We describe a real-life application of a new multicriteria method in the context of assisting the decision-making for a general plan in the municipality of Kirkkonummi in Uusimaa, Finland. At the time our group started working on the problem, a proposal for an overall plan had already been completed, but the order in which different regional parts of the plan should be implemented needed to be considered based on the environmental impact assessment (EIA) procedure. The EIA procedure generated a large amount of data about the different impacts of the alternatives. For this group decision making problem we developed the SMAA-3 decision support method which does not require any explicit prefer…
An Open Innovation Decision Support System to Select a Biopharmaceutical R&D Portfolio
2015
Drugs available in the market today, selected several years ago under very uncertain future scenario, have experienced a long and expensive process of research and development carried out following both a closed and an open innovation path. To support this critical selection process, we propose a Decision Support System, able to choose among different candidates the most promising drugs along their best development path. The Decision Support System, based on a real options portfolio optimization model, mapping tools, and what-if rules as well, has been applied to a numerical example available in literature, and the research findings show interesting managerial and academic implications. Cop…
Some recent contributions to routing and location problems
2003
CORAL 2003, a Conference on Routing and Location, washeld in Puerto de la Cruz (Tenerife, Spain) from February24–26, 2003. A wonderful place, close to the black sand ofthe beach, and a nice temperature welcomed a group ofsenior and young researchers from Canada, England,France, Germany, and Spain. Social activities were alsoprovided and sponsored by the Cabildo Insular de Tenerife(the local government) and TITSA (the public bus transpor-tation company on the island). The conference corre-sponded to the third annual meeting of a research project,funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology,developing a Decision Support System for Vehicle Routingand Facility Location Problems (SAD…
Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis using the data envelopment model
2006
Abstract Data envelopment analysis (DEA) and stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA-2) are methods for evaluating alternatives based on multiple criteria. While DEA is mainly an ex-post tool used for classifying alternatives into efficient and inefficient ones, SMAA-2 is an ex-ante tool for supporting multiple criteria decision-making. Both methods use a kind of value function where the importance of criteria is modeled using weights. Unlike many other methods, neither DEA nor SMAA-2 requires decision-makers’ weights as input. Instead, these so-called non-parametric methods explore the weight space in order to identify weights favorable for each alternative. This paper introd…
Decision-making in energy planning. Application of the Electre method at regional level for the diffusion of renewable energy technology
2003
The authors show an application of the multicriteria decision-making methodology used to assess an action plan for the diffusion of renewable energy technologies at regional scale. This methodological tool gives the decision-maker considerable help in the selection of the most suitable innovative technologies in the energy sector, according to preliminary fixed objectives. In this paper, a case study is carried out for the island of Sardinia. This region presents, on one hand, a high potential for energy resources exploitation, but on the other hand, it represents a specific case among other Italian regions, because of its socio-economic status and history. Three decision scenarios have bee…
Prediction of arrival times and human resources allocation for container terminal
2011
Increasing competition in the container shipping sector has meant that terminals are having to equip themselves with increasingly accurate analytical and governance tools. A transhipment terminal is an extremely complex system in terms of both organisation and management. Added to the uncertainty surrounding ships’ arrival time in port and the costs resulting from over-underestimation of resources is the large number of constraints and variables involved in port activities. Predicting ships delays in advance means that the relative demand for each shift can be determined with greater accuracy, and the basic resources then allocated to satisfy that demand. To this end, in this article we pro…