Search results for "Prediction."

Commentary: Rational Adaptation in Lexical Prediction: The Influence of Prediction Strength

2021

Finding Prediction Limits for a Future Number of Failures in the Prescribed Time Interval under Parametric Uncertainty

2012

Computing prediction intervals is an important part of the forecasting process intended to indicate the likely uncertainty in point forecasts. Prediction intervals for future order statistics are widely used for reliability problems and other related problems. In this paper, we present an accurate procedure, called ‘within-sample prediction of order statistics', to obtain prediction limits for the number of failures that will be observed in a future inspection of a sample of units, based only on the results of the first in-service inspection of the same sample. The failure-time of such units is modeled with a two-parameter Weibull distribution indexed by scale and shape parameters β and δ, …

Experimental observations of upstream overdeepening

2005

The issue of morphodynamic influence in meandering streams is investigated through a series of laboratory experiments on curved and straight flumes. Both qualitative and quantitative observations confirm the suitability of the recent theoretical developments (Zolezzi & Seminara 2001) that indicate the occurrence of two distinct regimes of morphodynamic influence, depending on the value of the width ratio of the channel β. The threshold value βR separating the upstream from the downstream influence regimes coincides with the resonant value discovered by Blondeaux & Seminara (1985). Indeed it is observed that upstream influence may occur only in relatively wide channels, while narrower stream…

Predicting mobile apps spread: An epidemiological random network modeling approach

2017

[EN] The mobile applications business is a really big market, growing constantly. In app marketing, a key issue is to predict future app installations. The influence of the peers seems to be very relevant when downloading apps. Therefore, the study of the evolution of mobile apps spread may be approached using a proper network model that considers the influence of peers. Influence of peers and other social contagions have been successfully described using models of epidemiological type. Hence, in this paper we propose an epidemiological random network model with realistic parameters to predict the evolution of downloads of apps. With this model, we are able to predict the behavior of an app…

New Reactions of Amino-Functionalized 3-Vinyl-1H-indoles and Tetrahydropyridin-4-yl Analogues with Dienophiles

1991

Reactions of 3-[2-(morpholin-4-yl)vinyl]-1H-indole (1), the 1,2-dihydro-9H-carbazole 2, as well as the 3-(tetrahydropyridin-4-yl)-1H-indoles 3a and 3b with some carbo- and heterodienophiles are described. The scope and limitations of the synthetic utility of these amino- (or homoamino)-functionalized 3-vinyl-1H-indoles are reported and some MO calculations for the qualitative prediction of their reactivities are presented. The reactions gave rise to substitution products, redox products, Diels-Alder adducts, ene adducts, and Michael-type adducts (Schemes 2 and 3).

Bayesian hierarchical models for analysing the spatial distribution of bioclimatic indices

2017

A methodological approach for modelling the spatial distribution of bioclimatic indices is proposed in this paper. The value of the bioclimatic index is modelled with a hierarchical Bayesian model that incorporates both structured and unstructured random effects. Selection of prior distributions is also discussed in order to better incorporate any possible prior knowledge about the parameters that could refer to the particular characteristics of bioclimatic indices. MCMC methods and distributed programming are used to obtain an approximation of the posterior distribution of the parameters and also the posterior predictive distribution of the indices. One main outcome of the proposal is the …

Measurement of lean body mass using bioelectrical impedance analysis: a consideration of the pros and cons

2017

The assessment of body composition has important applications in the evaluation of nutritional status and estimating potential health risks. Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) is a valid method for the assessment of body composition. BIA is an alternative to more invasive and expensive methods like dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, computerized tomography, and magnetic resonance imaging. Bioelectrical impedance analysis is an easy-to-use and low-cost method for the estimation of fat-free mass (FFM) in physiological and pathological conditions. The reliability of BIA measurements is influenced by various factors related to the instrument itself, including electrodes, operator, subject, a…

Bivariate nonlinear prediction to quantify the strength of complex dynamical interactions in short-term cardiovascular variability.

2005

A nonlinear prediction method for investigating the dynamic interdependence between short length time series is presented. The method is a generalization to bivariate prediction of the univariate approach based on nearest neighbor local linear approximation. Given the input and output series x and y, the relationship between a pattern of samples of x and a synchronous sample of y was approximated with a linear polynomial whose coefficients were estimated from an equation system including the nearest neighbor patterns in x and the corresponding samples in y. To avoid overfitting and waste of data, the training and testing stages of the prediction were designed through a specific out-of-sampl…

The genomic history of the Aegean palatial civilizations

2021

Summary The Cycladic, the Minoan, and the Helladic (Mycenaean) cultures define the Bronze Age (BA) of Greece. Urbanism, complex social structures, craft and agricultural specialization, and the earliest forms of writing characterize this iconic period. We sequenced six Early to Middle BA whole genomes, along with 11 mitochondrial genomes, sampled from the three BA cultures of the Aegean Sea. The Early BA (EBA) genomes are homogeneous and derive most of their ancestry from Neolithic Aegeans, contrary to earlier hypotheses that the Neolithic-EBA cultural transition was due to massive population turnover. EBA Aegeans were shaped by relatively small-scale migration from East of the Aegean, as e…

Novel fuzzy-based optimization approaches for the prediction of ultimate axial load of circular concrete-filled steel tubes

2021

An accurate estimation of the axial compression capacity of the concrete-filled steel tubular (CFST) column is crucial for ensuring the safety of structures containing them and preventing related failures. In this article, two novel hybrid fuzzy systems (FS) were used to create a new framework for estimating the axial compression capacity of circular CCFST columns. In the hybrid models, differential evolution (DE) and firefly algorithm (FFA) techniques are employed in order to obtain the optimal membership functions of the base FS model. To train the models with the new hybrid techniques, i.e., FS-DE and FS-FFA, a substantial library of 410 experimental tests was compiled from openly availa…