Search results for "Predictions"
showing 10 items of 30 documents
Erosion of Lizard Diversity by Climate Change and Altered Thermal Niches
2010
It is predicted that climate change will cause species extinctions and distributional shifts in coming decades, but data to validate these predictions are relatively scarce. Here, we compare recent and historical surveys for 48 Mexican lizard species at 200 sites. Since 1975, 12% of local populations have gone extinct. We verified physiological models of extinction risk with observed local extinctions and extended projections worldwide. Since 1975, we estimate that 4% of local populations have gone extinct worldwide, but by 2080 local extinctions are projected to reach 39% worldwide, and species extinctions may reach 20%. Global extinction projections were validated with local extinctions o…
Downscaling rice yield simulation at sub-field scale using remotely sensed LAI data
2019
Abstract Crop modeling and remote sensing are key tools to gain deeper understanding on cropping system dynamics and, ultimately, to increase the sustainability of agricultural productions. This study presents a system to estimate rice yields at sub-field scale based on the integration of a biophysical model and remotely sensed products. Leaf area index (LAI) data derived from decametric optical imageries (i.e., Landsat-8, Landsat-7 and Sentinel–2A) were assimilated into the WARM rice model via automatic recalibration of crop parameters at a fine spatial resolution (30 m × 30 m), targeting the lowest error between simulated and remotely sensed LAI. The performance of the system was evaluate…
Theoretical Determination of the pK a Values of Betalamic Acid Related to the Free Radical Scavenger Capacity: Comparison Between Empirical and Quant…
2015
Health benefits of dietary phytochemicals have been suggested in recent years. Among 1000s of different compounds, Betalains, which occur in vegetables of the Cariophyllalae order (cactus pear fruits and red beet), have been considered because of reducing power and potential to affect redox-modulated cellular processes. The antioxidant power of Betalains is strictly due to the dissociation rate of the acid moieties present in all the molecules of this family of phytochemicals. Experimentally, only the pK a values of betanin were determined. Recently, it was evidenced it was evidenced as the acid dissociation, at different environmental pHs, affects on its electron-donating capacity, and fur…
A Standard Siren Measurement of the Hubble Constant from GW170817 without the Electromagnetic Counterpart
2019
We perform a statistical standard siren analysis of GW170817. Our analysis does not utilize knowledge of NGC 4993 as the unique host galaxy of the optical counterpart to GW170817. Instead, we consider each galaxy within the GW170817 localization region as a potential host; combining the redshift from each galaxy with the distance estimate from GW170817 provides an estimate of the Hubble constant, $H_0$. We then combine the $H_0$ values from all the galaxies to provide a final measurement of $H_0$. We explore the dependence of our results on the thresholds by which galaxies are included in our sample, as well as the impact of weighting the galaxies by stellar mass and star-formation rate. Co…
Experimental observations of upstream overdeepening
2005
The issue of morphodynamic influence in meandering streams is investigated through a series of laboratory experiments on curved and straight flumes. Both qualitative and quantitative observations confirm the suitability of the recent theoretical developments (Zolezzi & Seminara 2001) that indicate the occurrence of two distinct regimes of morphodynamic influence, depending on the value of the width ratio of the channel β. The threshold value βR separating the upstream from the downstream influence regimes coincides with the resonant value discovered by Blondeaux & Seminara (1985). Indeed it is observed that upstream influence may occur only in relatively wide channels, while narrower stream…
Modification of Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya-Interaction-Stabilized Domain Wall Chirality by Driving Currents
2018
We measure and analyze the chirality of Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya-interaction (DMI) stabilized spin textures in multilayers of $\mathrm{Ta}|{\mathrm{Co}}_{20}{\mathrm{F}}_{60}{\mathrm{B}}_{20}|\mathrm{MgO}$. The effective DMI is measured experimentally using domain wall motion measurements, both in the presence (using spin-orbit torques) and absence of driving currents (using magnetic fields). We observe that the current-induced domain wall motion yields a change in effective DMI magnitude and opposite domain wall chirality when compared to field-induced domain wall motion (without current). We explore this effect, which we refer to as current-induced DMI, by providing possible explanations for…
An entropy-based machine learning algorithm for combining macroeconomic forecasts
2019
This paper applies a Machine Learning approach with the aim of providing a single aggregated prediction from a set of individual predictions. Departing from the well-known maximum-entropy inference methodology, a new factor capturing the distance between the true and the estimated aggregated predictions presents a new problem. Algorithms such as ridge, lasso or elastic net help in finding a new methodology to tackle this issue. We carry out a simulation study to evaluate the performance of such a procedure and apply it in order to forecast and measure predictive ability using a dataset of predictions on Spanish gross domestic product.
Real-time parameter estimation of Zika outbreaks using model averaging
2017
SUMMARYEarly prediction of the final size of any epidemic and in particular for Zika disease outbreaks can be useful for health authorities in order to plan the response to the outbreak. The Richards model is often been used to estimate epidemiological parameters for arboviral diseases based on the reported cumulative cases in single- and multi-wave outbreaks. However, other non-linear models can also fit the data as well. Typically, one follows the so called post selection estimation procedure, i.e., selects the best fitting model out of the set of candidate models and ignores the model uncertainty in both estimation and inference since these procedures are based on a single model. In this…
Epidemic spreading and aging in temporal networks with memory
2018
Time-varying network topologies can deeply influence dynamical processes mediated by them. Memory effects in the pattern of interactions among individuals are also known to affect how diffusive and spreading phenomena take place. In this paper we analyze the combined effect of these two ingredients on epidemic dynamics on networks. We study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) and the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) models on the recently introduced activity-driven networks with memory. By means of an activity-based mean-field approach we derive, in the long time limit, analytical predictions for the epidemic threshold as a function of the parameters describing the distribution of …
Atmospheric and astrophysical neutrinos above 1 TeV interacting in IceCube
2015
The IceCube Neutrino Observatory was designed primarily to search for high-energy (TeV--PeV) neutrinos produced in distant astrophysical objects. A search for $\gtrsim 100$~TeV neutrinos interacting inside the instrumented volume has recently provided evidence for an isotropic flux of such neutrinos. At lower energies, IceCube collects large numbers of neutrinos from the weak decays of mesons in cosmic-ray air showers. Here we present the results of a search for neutrino interactions inside IceCube's instrumented volume between 1~TeV and 1~PeV in 641 days of data taken from 2010--2012, lowering the energy threshold for neutrinos from the southern sky below 10 TeV for the first time, far bel…