Search results for "Probability and Uncertainty"
showing 10 items of 578 documents
Author response to the contributors to the discussion on “A critical evaluation of the current ‘p -value controversy’”
2017
Discussion of "modern statistics of spatial point processes"
2007
The paper ‘Modern statistics for spatial point processes' by Jesper Møller and Rasmus P. Waagepetersen is based on a special invited lecture given by the authors at the 21st Nordic Conference on Mathematical Statistics, held at Rebild, Denmark, in June 2006. At the conference, Antti Penttinen and Eva B. Vedel Jensen were invited to discuss the paper. We here present the comments from the two invited discussants and from a number of other scholars, as well as the authors' responses to these comments. Below Figure 1, Figure 2, etc., refer to figures in the paper under discussion, while Figure A, Figure B, etc., refer to figures in the current discussion. All numbered sections and formulas ref…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for High Dimensional Inversion in Remote Sensing
2004
SummaryWe discuss the inversion of the gas profiles (ozone, NO3, NO2, aerosols and neutral density) in the upper atmosphere from the spectral occultation measurements. The data are produced by the ‘Global ozone monitoring of occultation of stars’ instrument on board the Envisat satellite that was launched in March 2002. The instrument measures the attenuation of light spectra at various horizontal paths from about 100 km down to 10–20 km. The new feature is that these data allow the inversion of the gas concentration height profiles. A short introduction is given to the present operational data management procedure with examples of the first real data inversion. Several solution options for…
Interval estimation for the breakpoint in segmented regression: a smoothed score-based approach
2017
Summary This paper is concerned with interval estimation for the breakpoint parameter in segmented regression. We present score-type confidence intervals derived from the score statistic itself and from the recently proposed gradient statistic. Due to lack of regularity conditions of the score, non-smoothness and non-monotonicity, naive application of the score-based statistics is unfeasible and we propose to exploit the smoothed score obtained via induced smoothing. We compare our proposals with the traditional methods based on the Wald and the likelihood ratio statistics via simulations and an analysis of a real dataset: results show that the smoothed score-like statistics perform in prac…
Modeling Forest Tree Data Using Sequential Spatial Point Processes
2021
AbstractThe spatial structure of a forest stand is typically modeled by spatial point process models. Motivated by aerial forest inventories and forest dynamics in general, we propose a sequential spatial approach for modeling forest data. Such an approach is better justified than a static point process model in describing the long-term dependence among the spatial location of trees in a forest and the locations of detected trees in aerial forest inventories. Tree size can be used as a surrogate for the unknown tree age when determining the order in which trees have emerged or are observed on an aerial image. Sequential spatial point processes differ from spatial point processes in that the…
An association model for bivariate data with application to the anlysis of university students' success.
2015
The academic success of students is a priority for all universities. We analyze the students' success at university by considering their performance in terms of both ‘qualitative performance’, measured by their mean grade, and ‘quantitative performance’, measured by university credits accumulated. These data come from an Italian University and concern a cohort of students enrolled at the Faculty of Economics. To jointly model both the marginal relationships and the association structure with covariates, we fit a bivariate ordered logistic model by penalized maximum likelihood estimation. The penalty term we use allows us to smooth the association structure and enlarge the range of possible …
Second‐order analysis of marked inhomogeneous spatiotemporal point processes: Applications to earthquake data
2018
To analyse interactions in marked spatio-temporal point processes (MSTPPs), we introduce marked second-order reduced moment measures and K-functions for inhomogeneous second-order intensity reweigh ...
What Does Objective Mean in a Dirichlet-multinomial Process?
2017
Summary The Dirichlet-multinomial process can be seen as the generalisation of the binomial model with beta prior distribution when the number of categories is larger than two. In such a scenario, setting informative prior distributions when the number of categories is great becomes difficult, so the need for an objective approach arises. However, what does objective mean in the Dirichlet-multinomial process? To deal with this question, we study the sensitivity of the posterior distribution to the choice of an objective Dirichlet prior from those presented in the available literature. We illustrate the impact of the selection of the prior distribution in several scenarios and discuss the mo…
A penalized approach to covariate selection through quantile regression coefficient models
2019
The coefficients of a quantile regression model are one-to-one functions of the order of the quantile. In standard quantile regression (QR), different quantiles are estimated one at a time. Another possibility is to model the coefficient functions parametrically, an approach that is referred to as quantile regression coefficients modeling (QRCM). Compared with standard QR, the QRCM approach facilitates estimation, inference and interpretation of the results, and generates more efficient estimators. We designed a penalized method that can address the selection of covariates in this particular modelling framework. Unlike standard penalized quantile regression estimators, in which model selec…
Self-exciting point process modelling of crimes on linear networks
2022
Although there are recent developments for the analysis of first and second-order characteristics of point processes on networks, there are very few attempts in introducing models for network data. Motivated by the analysis of crime data in Bucaramanga (Colombia), we propose a spatiotemporal Hawkes point process model adapted to events living on linear networks. We first consider a non-parametric modelling strategy, for which we follow a non-parametric estimation of both the background and the triggering components. Then we consider a semi-parametric version, including a parametric estimation of the background based on covariates, and a non-parametric one of the triggering effects. Our mode…